The Cubs finished up their first two home series against arguably the two worst teams in the National League even at 3-3. They should certainly have gone 4-2 against these teams and probably 5-1.
The outcome is not a cause for panic, but still a disturbing sign.
They followed up with a tough series loss to the Brewers, when they blew the lead in the rubber game on Sunday, then a series win against the Astros, losing only the throwaway game on Tuesday when they figured to lose anyway starting Russell against Myers. All in all, they should be at least 8-4 at this point, but you take what you can get at this stage of the season.
Pitching has not been the problem as much as the team's inability to score runs—a perennial problem for this franchise. The Cubs achieved four quality starts on the home stand from their five starters—the only bad outings being from their supposed ace Ryan Dempster. Dempster’s last start was a little shaky, but the Cubs managed to pull out the win.
Zambrano’s next two starts were not dominant efforts, but he managed to post wins. Neither of these guys are in midseason form, but their shortcomings pale in comparison to Garza, who has looked awful every time out. Still, history says he will right the ship eventually.
Unfortunately, the Cubs have lost their No. 4 and No. 5 starters Wells and Cashner for at least one month. These two were actually the most impressive of the starting rotation in its first cycle. The Cubs have brought up Casey Coleman to become the fourth starter and seem intent to use James Russell as a spot starter—at least through the month of April, when there are still a few off-days to lessen the blow.
The back end of the Cubs' bullpen is outstanding and has really held its own, except for one lapse by Carlos Marmol in the final game of the Pirates series and a blown save from Kerry Wood in the Milwaukee finale.
Mike Quade is finding out the unfortunate truth that he cannot use Sean Marshall, Wood and Marmol in tandem every day, and that once he gets past them, there isn't a whole lot he can count on.
Marcos Mateo and James Russell will get you some outs, although you wish they were more consistent. John Grabow and Jeff Samardzija are awful—especially Samardzija. I defy anyone to provide a logical reason this guy is "pitching" in the major leagues and why he was not waived at the end of spring training. And don't tell me you would risk losing him. Actually, having him claimed would be doing the Cubs a favor, but no one wants him at his salary, so how come he is still here? You would hope that, sooner rather than later, they would pull the plug on Samardzija.
Lets not kid ourselves about the reason that this is a .500 team so far against the weakest opponents you could possibly imagine.
So far, the season has exposed the inherent weaknesses of their lineup and the poor decisions the Cubs have made.
Whether these decisions are the result of inattention or the inability to read and interpret basic statistics, who knows? So much of the Cubs' strategy and deployment of personnel look and feel like holdovers from previous seasons.
Choosing Quade to be the manager was one of my worst fears. He's too much of a continuation of the old tradition—not exactly a fresh set of eyes or a fresh approach.
I urge you to think of another team that would platoon two left-handed hitters in right field when there are two right-handed hitters playing center and left who do not hit right-handed pitching consistently. And what other team would "platoon" two right-handed hitters at second base?
And, come to think of it, what team professes to search for a leadoff hitter when their obvious choice—Kosuke Fukudome—has a .500 OBP so far? Tyler Colvin has looked lost against the lefties and righties, and he has only five hits all year. The Baker platoon looked good, although I still doubt that he should be leading off.
The Castro/Barney tandem has gotten on base at roughly a .500 clip as well, but they ought to think seriously about swapping Castro down to No. 3 when Fukudome recovers. Marlon Byrd is just not doing it in that slot. Sure he is batting well over .300, but with the first and second hitters getting on base half the time, he should have more than four RBI. That kind of production from the first two spots in the batting order means there have been close to 50 men on base when Byrd has hit. Four RBI doesn’t cut it.
One lingering issue is the complete lack of production from the few left-handed hitters the Cubs field on a daily basis. Fukudome has been solid, but Pena and Colvin have been just plain awful. If they do not start producing, this is going to be a long season.
If you think back to last year, Marlon Byrd and Alfonso Soriano got off to similar “fast” starts. They are not going to get any better, so the only plus factors on offense look like Ramirez bouncing back and Castro getting better.
Another realization I took away from the first few series, and which was confirmed last night in Denver, is just how bad the Cubs outfield is defensively, with the exception of right field when Fukudome plays.
It is not just the errors and misjudged balls by Soriano—although they contributed heavily to several losses. These guys in center and left field have limited range, and Colvin lacks experience in right. It is hard to judge outfield play on TV, but it just seemed to me that the Pirates and Diamondbacks outfielders consistently ran down drives in the alleys when the Cubs were letting them drop for extra bases.
This is going to be a problem for the Cubs and Mike Quade as the season progresses and another reason to give Colvin playing time in left and occasionally center field. At least until better alternatives become available.
For the month of April, the Cubs play against a pretty weak schedule. They are fortunate this is so. Without Wells and Cashner, they are going to need long outings from the top three to prevent a real collapse of the bullpen. If they come out of this stretch with their rotation back in order playing .500 ball, they can stay in contention. It's a pretty big "if."
If their lefty hitters don't start producing, they are going to have to make some moves.
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