Choose your numbers carefully when evaluating what Chris Archer has become this season for the Tampa Bay Rays and what he could become in the future.
The bloated ERA (4.42) tells you he hasn't been nearly as good as he was the previous three seasons. He's also giving up more hits than he ever has (8.6 per nine innings), more home runs than he ever has (1.5 per nine innings) and the most walks since he was a rookie (3.5 per nine innings).
Win-loss records have less significance than they once did, but Archer's 5-14 mark isn't exactly an illusion. He's not having a good year.
So if and when the Rays hold him out as an ace on the trade market, with ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick suggesting this week it would take "a monster package" for the Rays to even consider moving him, it figures that no one will take that gamble.
But maybe someone should.
If it takes a monster package now, that only means it would take a monster package-plus if Archer goes back to being an ace-in-waiting. Giving up a monster package may not feel like buying low, but if the alternative is waiting and then paying monster-plus, well, perhaps now is the time to act.
His numbers aren't all bad. While Archer leads the American League in losses, he also leads the league in strikeouts (155 in 130.1 innings). His strikeout rate (10.7 per nine innings) is exactly what it was last year. His fastball velocity, according to FanGraphs, is 94.1 mph, a tick below last year but basically in line with his career average.
"The stuff is still there for him to be a horse," said one National League scout who has seen Archer multiple times this season. "Can he be an ace again? I would bet on that."
It would be a big bet in terms of prospects surrendered, but not in terms of money. Archer makes $2.9 million this year, and the contract he signed with the Rays in 2014 runs through 2021, if you include two club options.
When he signed, it was the biggest deal ever for a player with less than a year of service time ($25.5 million guaranteed). If he becomes an ace, he'll become an absolute bargain ace.
The bigger question is why he's not close to being an ace now and whether he can become one soon.
Not everyone is convinced.
"It's tough to say with certainty what's causing his issues this year," said a scout from another National League team that needs pitching. "It's at least worth noting not only how much he used his slider last year, but that those sliders were typically 90 mph.
"How taxing is that on the arm?"
According to FanGraphs, Archer threw his slider 39.2 percent of the time last season and has used it almost as often this year (38.0 percent). The velocities are similar (as high as 92 mph, with an 88 mph average), but the results aren't as good.
Archer told Tim Brown of Yahoo he's been "this close," and he suggested that after starting off poorly, he may have shied away from contact and lost some confidence.
"I think people have been very critical of me, and I'm fine with it," Archer told Brown.
There's room for criticism, but there's also room for comparison. Detroit's Justin Verlander had a similarly bad season early in his career, leading MLB with 17 losses in 2008, with his ERA spiking to 4.84.
A year later, Verlander was back on the All-Star team, with a season good enough that he finished third in Cy Young voting.
Verlander didn't have to deal with the possibility of being traded, something that is ever-present when you play for the Rays. Last week, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark put this on Twitter:
It's hard to say how much any of that has affected Archer. His last two starts have been two of his best this season. Tuesday night, he gave up just one earned run in seven innings against the Dodgers, with no walks and eight strikeouts (but still lost 3-2 on two unearned runs).
We can't know exactly what happened, but the National League scout who has seen Archer multiple times has a few theories.
The scout thought back to spring training, when there were stories (including this one by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports) about Archer's commitment to visiting schools and hospitals and his dedication to the Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities program. He remembered Archer's public criticism of two young Rays pitchers who showed up later than others for workouts (as chronicled by Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Times).
"I think he put more pressure on himself," the scout said.
Even without that, the season could have been a challenge. The Rays worked to improve their offense this season, but they're no longer a strong defensive team.
"The catcher was Hank Conger, and he doesn't throw anybody out," the scout said. "The shortstop, Brad Miller, has limited range. They don't get big outs. A lot of times, he had to get the fourth out in an inning."
It's easy to say a true ace should be able to work through the distractions and work around the poor defense. But when a 27-year-old comes into a season with Cy Young expectations and finds himself with a 5.16 ERA in the middle of May, it can make for a tough season.
As long as he's still healthy and his stuff is still good, there's no reason to think he can't rebound and even go forward. Three years after that poor 2008 season, Verlander was the American League's Most Valuable Player.
Archer may not be Verlander, but he could become an ace. On a trade market that offers little in top-level starting pitching, even a monster package for him could turn out to be a bargain.
In fact, I would almost bet on it.
Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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