That Clay Buchholz was battered by the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday will raise few red flags in the Boston Red Sox clubhouse, as the lanky right-hander suffered the thumping during an admittedly sleepy spring training tune-up.
The Calendar still reads March, which is to say the numbers don’t matter yet.
But the Red Sox need to hope the numbers are impressive when they do.
Not just because Buchholz is a key part of the Red Sox rotation—that part is most definitely true, and is indeed critical—but also because at this point the can’t-miss prospect literally can’t miss without the Sox ending up with egg on their face.
Buchholz’s story is no secret. The skinny rookie burst on the scene and fired a no-hitter in his second start ever, raising the expectation bar to an unattainable level. What followed was a two-year journey through baseball’s mental spider web that featured fewer peaks and more frustrating valleys before Buchholz seemed to begin turning the corner down the stretch last summer.
He is now slotted into the No. 4 spot in the Red Sox rotation and is about to enter his first season as a full-time starter. At the age of 25, the time is now for the highly-touted prospect to put the package together.
The Red Sox, no doubt, have their fingers crossed.
Buchholz has long been the most prized possession in the Red Sox farm system. Dozens of times teams have approached Theo Epstein with a trade package built around the promising hurler, and dozens of times they’ve been turned away.
And the Red Sox faithful have patiently waited for the culmination, to see what the Red Sox scouts have promised.
Now they better see it.
Over the past two seasons alone, Buchholz could have been the key component to net the Red Sox Adrian Gonzalez, Roy Halladay, or a package of both Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez. Epstein shrewdly coaxed the Indians into surrendering Martinez without taking Buchholz in return, but the belief is that a deal including Mr. Clay would have brought former Cy Young winner Lee to Beantown as well.
What you have in those players is a sure thing. Halladay or Lee would have immediately made the rotation as deep as any baseball—this, of course, precedes the John Lackey signing. And Gonzalez would have provided the middle-of-the-order bopper Sox fans have been thirsting for since Big Papi became slightly larger than average Papi.
This isn’t to say the Red Sox haven’t done well for themselves anyway. They’ve won a pair of World Series in the last decade and have reached the playoffs in every season under Terry Francona save for one. But the possibilities are literally endless when you consider the kind of player Buchholz could have brought in return.
Boston has proved adept at holding onto prospects in the past. Jonathan Papelbon, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia have all blossomed in front of our eyes, and—perhaps more directly connected to this conversation—Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester have turned into perennial All-Star threats after the Sox refused to ship them out of town for the likes of Johan Santana or Halladay.
The one big-time prospect they did let go of, Hanley Ramirez, was shipped out when Theo was on his brief hiatus, and one can only assume Epstein wouldn’t have made the deal given his prospect-protecting history.
So it’s no surprise that Buchholz is still around. But the time has come for him to fulfill his immense promise, or for the first time the Sox brass will have plenty of explaining to do.
Let the record state that I am firmly behind Buchholz. I advocated keeping him in every instance, and still believe it will prove the better decision in the long run. With the possible exception of Gonzalez, there wasn’t a player available I’d have even considered moving him for.
But seeds of doubt have begun to creep in. A pitcher I once thought was a sure-fire ace of the staff has yet to show that kind of punch. He doesn’t necessarily have to get to that level, but seeing him emerge as a viable No. 2 or No. 3 would be ideal.
Especially if you have a job in the Red Sox front office.
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