I was asked to appear on a national overnight sports radio program last night, and was asked to dissect the NL Central division.
Of course, on paper, the Cubs are the obvious favorites. But we all know that titles aren't won on paper. Yet if you look at what the other teams in the division have done this offseason, you certainly have to like the Cubbies chances to three-peat this year.
Now, I recently wrote an NL Central preview for this site, so I won't go into detail. But in reviewing the challengers to the Cubs throne, two candidates emerge above the others.
And it may surprise you to learn that the Milwaukee Brewers are NOT one of them.
Oh sure, the Brewers have a talented lineup. Their offense is powerful and should be able to score runs in bunches.
And yes, I realize they won the wild card last season. But the subtraction of CC Sabathia is a huge loss for this team.
What he did in the later half of the season, and especially down the stretch is difficult to put into words. He was simply amazing, and they did not even try to replace him, though that would have been a difficult task.
The Brewers also lost Ben Sheets, and the end result is not enough starting pitching to seriously contend with the Cubs, assuming good health for the northsiders.
Meanwhile, starting pitching looks to be the key for two of the Cubs potential challengers in 2009. The St. Louis Cardinals are always tough—it's a great rivalry as well as a very well coached team. Tony LaRussa and his pitching coach, Dave Duncan, do more with talent than almost anyone in the league.
Their key for this season has to be the re-emergance of former ace Chris Carpenter, who has looked terrific this spring.
If Carpenter is healthy and productive, and Motte can close effectively, LaRussa's Cards could emerge as our main threat in the Central.
Likewise, there are a lot of "if's" for the Cincinnati Reds. But if (there's that word again) that rotation produces as well as it looks on paper, and their young players continue to develop, they could be a dark-horse sleeper in the division.
The Reds have talented youngsters like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce in their lineup. But it's the starting staff that looks most impressive. With Micah Owings named as fifth starter today, the starting five of Austin Harang, Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Owings has the potential to be very good.
Arroyo is battling carpal tunnel syndrome, but another youngster, Homer Bailey, who lost the battle to Owings, looked good in the spring and appears ready if Arroyo can't go. Arroyo has never missed a start due to injury.
The Houston Astros could conceivably contend, but a lot would have to go right for them. The Pirates seem to be heading in the right direction, but .500 is still a more realistic goal for them in 2009.
Speaking of the health of Carpenter, health could be a huge factor for our Cubbies this season as well. We all know that Milton Bradley can hit when healthy, but that's the problem. Keeping him on the field is a major question mark.
And Rich Harden needs constant monitoring as well. So, while the Cubs are the best team on paper, paper is fragile and can tear easily.
Let's hope we're made of construction paper this season, come to think of it, or the Cardinals and Reds may be knocking at the door.
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