Spring training is at long last in sight!
Note the exclamation point. That's because everyone heads to Florida and Arizona with at least a modicum of optimism, and every fan is permitted to dream.
Of course, most of those dreams will be dashed against the rocks of reality. Only 10 out of 30 teams will qualify for the postseason, after all, and only one of those will finish its season with a champagne-drenched victory.
We won't know which dreams are legit until the 162-game grind runs its course, but we can survey the landscape and separate squads into three general categories. In fact, let's do that now.
The top tier (in alphabetical order): Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals
The fringe: Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays
Beyond the fringe: Atlanta Braves, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Oakland A's, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres
Quibble if you want. Those designations are based more on an educated gut feeling than some sort of well-calibrated metric. You could slide the D-backs down into the fringe category, for example, or bump the A's up to the same spot. Inevitably, there's gray area.
Our purpose, though, is to examine those squads that sit squarely in the middle, the teams with legitimate October aspirations as well as significant holes and undeniable uncertainty.
Then, based on current roster construction and difficulty of division, we'll declare each fringe team a contender or pretender.
As ever, feel free to sound off with your take in the comments and proceed when ready.
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