When Cubs General Manager Jim Hendry re-signed left-handed reliever John Grabow to a two-year extension last month, he removed the Cubs from the hunt for free agent southpaw Billy Wagner.
Tuesday, foxsports.com reported that Wagner had found his home for 2010, after agreeing to a one-year deal with Atlanta.
With Wagner off the market and the Cubs essentially set in terms of left-handed arms , Hendry will now turn his attention to the remaining crop of free agent bullpen hurlers, who are predominantly right-handed.
If one recent piece by Chicago Tribune writer Phil Rogers carries any weight, the top guy on Hendry's wish list may be erstwhile Red Sox and Dodgers right-hander Takashi Saito.
Saito will turn 40 in February and is no longer the dominant closer he was from 2006-08 in Los Angeles. With Boston in 2009, Saito had a career-worst 1.35 WHIP and added only .145 wins above replacement level, according to Baseball Prospectus' WXRL statistic—a special measure of reliever effectiveness that accounts for runners inherited and left on base and for the importance of particular game situations.
Crucially, however, WXRL depends somewhat upon usage patterns, and Saito—in one of the best bullpens in recent memory—rarely saw action in crucial game situations. His Leverage statistic, which measures the average importance of game situations in which he pitched, came out to just 0.6—meaning that his average plate appearance was 38 percent less important than the first of a given game, ranking him eighth among qualifying Boston relievers.
Further, Saito had to adjust to pitching in a hitter's haven, Fenway Park, and a hitter's league, American, for the first time in his four-year Major League career.
Given that Saito is very much a fly-ball pitcher, it is not surprising that opponents' slugging average against him rose over 100 points from his previous career average of .264.
Walks also became a problem for Saito last season: He issued 25 of them in 55 2/3 innings, only four fewer than he had surrendered over the previous two years in twice as many frames. Again, however, the superior hitters in the American League probably dictated some of that inflation.
Saito, then, is not without red flags. Especially, his age could be a serious deterrent for teams that would otherwise show interest, including those on each side of Chicago.
If he has anything left in the tank, however, he could be a great addition, especially to a National League team, and especially, as closer insurance.
The numbers indicate that he does: his WHIP improved from 1.40 to 1.28 from the first to the second half of last season.
Therefore, with the Cubs in need of a reliever capable of taking over the closer's role if, and likely when, Carlos Marmol goes wild, Saito appears to be a good fit.
Best of all, he made just $1.5 million in 2009. Even at twice that price, Chicago would get a good deal. He'll likely make something more like $2.25-2.5 million, making him a very good low-risk/high-reward proposition, and one at which Hendry would be wise to look closely as one avenue through which to improve his shaky bullpen for 2010.
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