In the second of MLB's Wild Card Games, the Chicago Cubs will face the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday night for the right to move on to meet the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS.
Both teams will trot out big-time starters in Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole. A premier pitching matchup is receiving plenty of publicity, but what are some other factors that will determine the outcome of such a pivotal game?
After taking a look at both rosters, we've identified a few keys to the do-or-die elimination game.
Small ball and Arrieta
It's no secret that Arrieta put together one of the all-time great seasons in 2015. The likely NL Cy Young winner was even better in the second half, posting a 0.75 ERA in 107.1 innings. Against Pittsburgh, he went 3-1 with a 0.75 ERA, 0.639 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 36 innings of work.
Needless to say, the Pirates have their work cut out for them. Pittsburgh can't sit around and wait for a three-run homer, which is why manager Clint Hurdle alluded to playing small ball against the talented right-hander in a recent interview.
"Without saying so directly, Hurdle implied that small ball – bunts, moving runners, hit-and-runs – might work better against the tough right-hander," said Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
The Pirates have the personnel to pull off such a game plan. Pittsburgh ranked seventh in MLB with 140 infield hits, with Starling Marte finishing second with 34. The Pirates weren't as successful bunting for base hits, but Gregory Polanco did manage to reach base six times.
Kris Bryant made 17 errors on the season, so don't be surprised to see Marte, Polanco, Josh Harrison and even Andrew McCutchen test him if Arrieta's stuff is on point.
Forgot about Cole?
Arrieta has been the talk of MLB, and rightfully so, but it's not as if the Pirates won't counter with an elite starter of their own.
Cole put together a career year in 2015, posting a 2.60 ERA in over 200 innings. The right-hander has also enjoyed success against the projected Cubs lineup during his career:
| CF Dexter Fowler | 3-for-14, 4 K |
| LF Kyle Schwarber | 1-for-5, 1 K |
| 3B Kris Bryant | 3-for-9, 6 K |
| 1B Anthony Rizzo | 6-for-17, 1 2B, 3 K |
| 2B Starlin Castro | 6-for-17, 4 K |
| C Miguel Montero | 3-for-5, 1 K |
| RF Jorge Soler | 2-for-7, 2 K |
| SP Jake Arrieta | 0 PA |
| SS Addison Russell | 2-for-7, 2 K |
Castro's torrid September combined with an impressive sample size against Cole should give him the nod over Javier Baez. Anthony Rizzo and Miguel Montero have also had some success against the 25-year-old.
However, the Cubs led MLB in strikeout percentage this season. Cole is capable of racking up the K's if his stuff is right, which bodes well against a team of young free-swingers. Arrieta will be tough, but Cole should be able to take advantage of Chicago's lack of contact.
Who has the edge defensively?
We touched on Bryant above, but defense could ultimately decide this game. With Arrieta and Cole going, any extra bases will be much appreciated.
During 2015, both the Cubs and Pirates excelled defensively. Chicago ranked 11th in MLB in defensive runs saved with 10, while the Pirates were 12th with seven. Addison Russell and Anthony Rizzo are extremely sure-handed, while Pittsburgh's outfield trio combined to save 28 runs.
There are still some holes to be found for both teams. For Pittsburgh, Pedro Alvarez (-12) is a liability if he's included in the lineup. Dexter Fowler (-12 DRS), Starlin Castro (-4 DRS) and Kyle Schwarber (-3 DRS as on OF) can also be unreliable defenders.
Schwarber is particularly concerning, considering he's played just 14 innings in right field in his career.
“But you know what, he’s played the outfield well [in both spots]," manager Joe Maddon told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times regarding Schwarber's recent performance in right. "He’s played well out there. He played well behind the plate. The whole point is just to maximize what we’re able to do at any one particular moment. And I don’t want to just throw guys into situations without giving them some kind of work in advance of the moment.”
Maddon has options. He can put Javier Baez at third and place the more athletic Bryant in left so Schwarber can handle the less treacherous right field at PNC Park. No matter the lineup, both teams must be sound defensively when runs figure to be at a premium.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Oct. 6.
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