Over the past decade, the Red Sox have developed a reputation for getting the best value for their players, and sometimes resurrecting careers in the process.
The hot corner has been a prime example of this. While Kevin Youkilis has had his glove in the mix, the Sox have taken chances on aging veterans that most around baseball were ready to mark as over the hill. First came Bill Mueller fresh off his worst season with the Giants and Cubs. Then they took on the "cancerous" contract of Mike Lowell in order to obtain Josh Beckett. Both have become local heroes for their parts in the Red Sox World Series success.
Though the latest acquisition in the way of third basemen for the Red Sox is hardly over the hill at 31, there are serious doubts about Adrian Beltre ever regaining the bat that netted him a colossal contract with the Seattle Mariners in 2005 (.334/48 HR/121 RBIs the previous year with the Dodgers).
However, if we are to trust past trends, Beltre may just be the next in line to get a bump from playing 81 of his games at Fenway Park. Here are some numbers I'm sure Beltre paid close attention to while inking his one year deal with the Sox.
Bill Mueller:
2002 (SFG/CHC) - .262 / 7 HRs / 38 RBIs / .743 OPS
2003 (BOS) - .326 / 19 HRs / 85 RBIs / .938 OPS
Mueller managed to add 64 points to his average and blew away his career high in home runs. Not to mention his OPS was only a few points below fellow teammate David Ortiz's.
Mike Lowell:
2005 (FLA) - .236 / 8 HRs / 58 RBIs / .658 OPS
2006 (BOS) - .284 / 20 HRs / 80 RBIs / .814 OPS
Rumors of Mike Lowell's demise were indeed greatly exaggerated. Though no one can really pinpoint what it was that changed from Miami to Boston, Lowell managed to find his stroke again. Lowell has also been a solid leader in the Boston clubhouse and will be tough to replace in that capacity.
So now comes prediction time. What should we expect to see from Adrian Beltre in 2010? Here's a conservative prediction:
Adrian Beltre:
2009 (SEA) - .265 / 8 HRs / 44 RBIs / .683 OPS
2010 (BOS) - .288 / 21 HRs / 85 RBIs / .812 OPS
Unfortunately those numbers aren't worth the $10M being shelled out to Beltre this season. But if he can improve on those power totals his contract may seem a bit more fair when you factor in his gold glove defense.
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