The Indians, who do not respond well to preseason accolades, are back in the shadows for 2009.
This makes them dangerous and capable of winning the AL Central. They filled a big hole with the signing of closer Kerry Wood, while a healthy Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner will make a good offense better.
The biggest question will be the starting rotation, where the Indians have produced two straight Cy Young winners in CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee. Sabathia is gone, but Lee is back, followed by a long line of suspect and untested starters.
ROTATION
Lee and Fausto Carmona are the top starters.
Lee, who won 22 games last year, has gone from No. 5 in 2008 to lead dog this year. The Indians don’t expect him to repeat last year’s performance, but they need him to come close.
Carmona won 19 games in 2007 and eight last year after missing two months with a hip injury.
All Carl Pavano has to do is stay healthy and a spot in the rotation belongs to him. The Indians needed a veteran to stabilize the rotation and they’re gambling that Pavano, who missed most of last season because of Tommy John surgery, is the guy. Competing for the last two spots will be righty Anthony Reyes and lefties Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, Scott Lewis, David Huff and Zach Jackson.
Reyes, shut down in September because of elbow problems, should win one of those jobs if healthy. Jake Westbrook (Tommy John surgery) won’t be available until after the All-Star break.
BULLPEN
A healthy Wood should turn a liability into a strength. Last year the Indians had the fewest saves in the AL. With Wood, who signed a two-year $20.5 million deal, as the closer, Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, and Rafael Betancourt become the prime setup men.
Lewis, 13-for-13 in save situations from August to the end of last season, can step in to the closer role if Wood needs a break. Sidearmer Joe Smith, acquired from the Mets in a three-team, 12-player trade, and Masa Kobayashi can pitch the sixth and seventh. Kobayashi, useless in the second half last year, needs more endurance. The last spot in the pen should go to internal prospect Adam Miller, if he stays healthy.
Miller, moving from the rotation to the pen, looked great in winter ball.
MIDDLE INFIELD
A hazy picture came into focus with the acquisition of versatile Mark DeRosa and the decision to play him at third base. DeRosa’s arrival in late December from the Cubs allows Jhonny Peralta to stay at shortstop and Asdrubal Cabrera to remain at second.
Before the trade, Peralta appeared headed for third and Cabrera to short. Peralta has range issues, but the Indians like his bat and his dependability when it comes to making the routine play. Utility infielder Jamey Carroll, Josh Barfield, and Luis Valbuena, acquired in the same deal that brought Smith to town, offer depth. While Carroll is guaranteed a spot on the club, Barfield and Valbuena will compete for what might be the last position player spot.
CORNERS
DeRosa has played more second than third in his career, but the Indians believe—in part because he can leave through free agency after 2009—it will be less disruptive to play him at third and allow Peralta and Cabrera to stay in their normal positions.
Ryan Garko, who drove in 90 runs last season as the starting first baseman, could make way for Martinez if it’s decided Kelly Shoppach will be the starting catcher.
Martinez missed much of last season with surgery on his right elbow. The switch-hitting Martinez might be the top run producer on the club. Andy Marte finished last season at third following Casey Blake being traded to the Dodgers. He’s not expected to make the club this year.
OUTFIELD
Other than Grady Sizemore, the Indians have no established star in the outfield, but it’s their deepest position.
Sizemore won his second Gold Glove, was a 30-30 guy (30 homers, 30 steals), and appeared in his third straight All-Star game in center field.
Shin-Soo Choo finished last season so strongly in right field that the Indians traded Franklin Gutierrez to Seattle.
David Dellucci, unproductive in the first two years of his three-year deal, and emerging Ben Francisco are in left field.
Prospects Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, and Trevor Crowe are scheduled to start the year at Class AAA Columbus and could see action in the big leagues this year. LaPorta and Brantley came from Milwaukee in the Sabathia trade.
CATCHING
With Martinez limited to 73 games by elbow surgery and hamstring problems, Shoppach took over the job last year, hitting .261 with 21 homers and 55 RBI. The downside is that he didn’t throw particularly well and struck out a team-high 133 times in 352 at-bats. Shoppach calls a good game and works well with the pitching staff.
Martinez is probably still the best catcher on the team, but he’s 30 and showing signs of wear. Prospects Carlos Santana, Wyatt Toregas, and Chris Gimenez may allow the Indians to trade Shoppach or Martinez.
DH/BENCH
Hafner must bounce back from right shoulder surgery and nearly two years of poor production if the Indians are to be serious contenders.
The veteran DH, signed through 2012, played only 57 games last year because of the sore shoulder. Carroll is a versatile infielder with speed and pinch-hitting skills. His best position is second base, where he has good range.
Barfield, who opened the 2007 season as the starting second baseman, missed most of last year because of finger surgery. He needs to regain management’s confidence and is a trade candidate. Dellucci brings occasional power off the bench.
MANAGEMENT
Owner Larry Dolan took a hit at the box office last season when projected attendance of 2.5 million fell to 2.2 million because of the Indians’ poor first half.
This year the Indians are expected to open the season with a 25-man payroll that’s smaller than last year’s $79 million.
The recession that gripped the country last year has been in full swing for the last several years in Cleveland, so the Indians know how to adapt. This will be the seventh season for the team of GM Mark Shapiro and manager Eric Wedge. They have produced two winning seasons (2005 and 2007) and one trip to the postseason. However, they have failed to deliver on the expectations generated by those seasons each time.
In some markets, that may be enough to bring change, but there seems to be little if any pressure on either coming into this season.
Wedge is signed through 2010 and Shapiro through 2012. Last season, to Wedge’s credit, the Indians salvaged what could have been a terrible year by going 44–28 down the stretch to finish 81–81. Shapiro, by trading Sabathia and Blake, helped restock the farm system. He believes they’re better positioned in terms of talent and prospects than any team in the AL Central. He needs to prove it.
FINAL ANALYSIS
The Indians are fortunate to be playing in the AL Central, where quick rebounds are possible. They’re being outspent by Detroit and Chicago, but talent-wise, they’re in position to win the division as long as their key players stay healthy and they get their infield and rotation aligned. Last year was disappointing but beneficial, because young players such as Choo, Francisco, Cabrera, Shoppach, Perez, Peralta, and Lewis were exposed to pressure situations.
That can only help them in 2009.
Carter’s Projected Indians Lineup
CF Grady Sizemore
3B Mark DeRosa
DH Travis Hafner
1B Victor Martinez
SS Jhonny Peralta
RF Shin-Soo Choo
C Kelly Shoppach
2B Asdrubal Cabrera
LF Ben Francisco
Bench
OF David Dellucci
2B Josh Barfield
IF Jamey Carroll
1B Ryan Garko
Rotation
LH Cliff Lee
RH Fausto Carmona
RH Carl Pavano
LH Aaron Laffey
RH Anthony Reyes
Bullpen
RH Kerry Wood (Closer)
LH Rafael Perez
RH Jensen Lewis
RH Rafael Betancourt
RH Joe Smith
RH Masa Kobayashi
RH Adam Miller
Carter’s Final Prediction for the Cleveland Indians
Second in American League Central Division
Misses Playoffs
Grady Sizemore will win the 2009 American League Most Valuable Player Award
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