Last winter, the Washington Nationals signed the best pitcher on the free-agent market and proceeded to have a massively disappointing season.
So what should they do this winter? Why, sign the best pitcher on the free-agent market, of course—a fellow by the name of David Price.
Here's where you raise your hand and mutter something about the definition of insanity. Fair enough. But let's think about this for a minute.
The Nats didn't miss the playoffs in 2015 because of Max Scherzer, their shiny offseason prize. In fact, Scherzer was a bright spot; he twirled a pair of no-hitters and generally lived up to his seven-year, $210 million pact.
The rest of the Nationals' hyped "super rotation" didn't fare as well. Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez wobbled in stretches, Stephen Strasburg suffered through injures and inconsistency and Doug Fister was demoted to the bullpen.
Now, Zimmermann and Fister are free agents, and the Nats have a need.
Enter Price, the biggest fish in the hot-stove pot.
The ace left-hander and former American League Cy Young Award-winner won't come cheap. His leading suitors, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, include the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.
That has insane bidding war written all over it, as Rosenthal spelled out:
The baseball planets are aligned perfectly for David Price.
Two heated rivals in the NL Central want him. So do two in the NL West. So does another team from his old AL East that is widely expected to be the high bidder.
Don't be surprised if Price gets a deal that meets or exceeds Scherzer's. Even in a deep pool of starting pitchers, he'll have his pick of destinations with a Matterhorn-sized mountain of cash waiting.
So why should the Nationals even consider wading in? Well, again, they need a starter, at least, if Zimmermann and Fister walk. And remember, Strasburg is due to hit the market next winter and will command a crazy contract of his own.
Adding Price would give Washington a world-beating lefty-righty combo. Scherzer is 31 and Price is 30, and the former Detroit Tigers teammates have been extremely durable. A team in win-now mode couldn't order a much better one-two punch.
That raises the question: Are the Nats in win-now mode? Entering last season, the answer was an unequivocal "yes," but the picture's murkier now.
After limping to a dysfunctional second-place finish, Washington is suddenly staring up at the New York Mets in the NL East.
Still, there's plenty to like about this team, beginning with newly minted NL MVP Bryce Harper, whose monster season may have been a mere preview of coming attractions. Yes, Washington needs to add pieces around Harper to bolster an offense that was bitten by injuries and could lose shortstop Ian Desmond and center fielder Denard Span to free agency.
That sounds like an argument against breaking the bank on Price, and if signing him precludes adding anyone else of consequence, the Nationals should think twice.
Again, though, this is a franchise that not so long ago was viewed as a prohibitive World Series favorite. After jettisoning manager Matt Williams and bringing on the veteran combo of skipper Dusty Baker and pitching coach Mike Maddux, Washington has a shot at redemption.
"I think the team is ready to win, that's what I like about it," Maddux said, per the Washington Post's Chelsea Janes. "I don't see what’s holding them back, really."
To keep pace with the pitching-rich Mets, however, bold action is required.
While a Price/Scherzer pairing would represent a huge expenditure, the Nats can fill in the rest of their rotation with young, affordable talent. Assuming Strasburg departs next winter (if he's not traded sooner) Gonzalez—who is inked through 2018 at $12 million a season—would be the No. 3.
After that, the Nats could slot in some combination of Tanner Roark, Joe Ross and top prospect Lucas Giolito, all of whom are under team control through 2020 or beyond. Splurge at the top, save at the bottom.
To further make the financial side feasible, ESPN's David Schoenfield suggested the Nationals could backload Price's contract, since only Scherzer and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman are locked into expensive long-term deals.
No matter what, this winter represents a turning point for the Nationals, as general manager Mike Rizzo recently acknowledged.
"The decisions we make this season are going to shape not only the 2016 season but beyond," Rizzo said, per James Wagner of the Washington Post. "It's going to be an exciting, busy, important offseason."
Important is a given. To make it busy and exciting, Rizzo must get to work. Dangling a serious offer in front of Price and seeing if he bites would be an excellent start.
All statistics and contract information current as of Nov. 26 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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