I recently posted that I believe the Arizona Diamondbacks will take the NL West with 88-plus wins in 2010.
Well, that wasn’t just a bunch of silly nonsense that I predicted just because I like Justin Upton (even though I do). I truly believe the D’Backs are the team to beat in 2010.
My reasoning? Well, position for position, I think they have more talent.
So let’s indulge ourselves for a little bit. Here are my breakdowns in the NL West in 2010.
Catcher
Arizona: Miguel Montero
San Francisco: Bengie Molina
Los Angeles: Russell Martin
Colorado: Chris Iannetta
San Diego: Nick Hundley
It’s really a battle between Montero and Iannetta for the best catcher in the division, and if I had to I would rank Montero higher. He won the starting job last year and is coming into his age 27 season. His confidence has to be on cloud nine.
Iannetta has more power, but due to his inconsistency, he will be splitting time with Miguel Olivo. Montero simply has more upside.
Martin had a horrible year last year. The only way he is better than Montero is in steals, and you’re not going to care if a catcher swipes 10 bases or three. Molina is starting solely because of his exceptional defense, which Montero does equally well.
And Hundley—a low batting average and power numbers are no match for Montero. Did I mention M.M. bats in the middle of the order...
Advantage: Arizona
First Base
Arizona: Adam LaRoche
San Francisco: Aubrey Huff
Los Angeles: James Loney
Colorado: Todd Helton
San Diego: Adrian Gonzalez
I am just going to throw Gonzalez out of the mix here. He is clearly the best first baseman, but he plays on the worst team, so his relevance in the division battle is nonexistent.
Adam LaRoche has the most pop out of the contenders; he will hit for a higher average than Huff or Loney, but not Helton, and is solid defensively. I like him hitting in Arizona. His smooth lefty swing could find the outfield seats 30 times this year, and he helps solidify the middle of the batting order.
Whatever the case, Adrian Gonzalez is the cream of the crop...
Advantage: San Diego
Second Base
Arizona: Kelly Johnson
San Francisco: Freddy Sanchez
Los Angeles: Ronnie Belliard
Colorado: Clint Barmes
San Diego: David Eckstein
Second base is such a horrible offensive position for most of the league that it seems silly to rank these players, because it is no different here. If I had to choose the best second baseman, I would pick Eckstein. He’s a guy who knows how to win, and with defensive players, that is a valuable commodity.
Johnson is an interesting case this year. He fell apart in Atlanta after averaging 14 home runs and a .280 batting average in 2007 and 2008. He is on par offensively with every other second baseman; only Barmes has more power, and hitting in Coors Field doesn’t hurt.
But World Series victories count as something, and that’s what Eckstein provides...
Advantage: San Diego
Third Base
Arizona: Mark Reynolds
San Francisco: Pablo Sandoval
Los Angeles: Casey Blake
Colorado: Ian Stewart
San Diego: Chase Headley
It’s really just a toss-up between Reynolds and Sandoval. Stewart has some power, but he will hit under .250 and doesn’t have any speed.
The only area Sandoval is better than Reynolds is in batting average. Reynolds will hit .250, and Panda will hit .330. But Reynolds will crush more home runs and extra-base hits, steal 20 more bases, drive in more men, and strike out twice as much. But an out’s an out, right? As long as you are productive. Plus, Reynolds has more of an offense surrounding him than Sandoval does.
Even though Sandoval is more popular and a leader...
Advantage: Arizona
Shortstop
Arizona: Stephen Drew
San Francisco: Edgar Renteria
Los Angeles: Rafael Furcal
Colorado: Troy Tulowitzki
San Diego: Everth Cabrera
Tulo is the second best shortstop in the game, so it goes to him hands down. But Drew is definitely second. He was hurt last year and had a bad first half. I expect him to hit .280 with 20 home runs and score close to 100 runs in 2010.
Renteria just fell off the face of the earth the last few years, Furcal is overrated, and the only thing Cabrera does well is steal bases, and he won’t steal more than 30.
Regardless, Drew is a great shortstop, and I expect him to come into his own in his age 27 season.
Tulo is just fantastic though—can’t say enough about him...
Advantage: Colorado
Left Field
Arizona: Conor Jackson
San Francisco: Mark DeRosa
Los Angeles: Manny Ramirez
Colorado: Carlos Gonzalez
San Diego: Kyle Blanks
This is the first position where I don’t think Arizona is the best or second best player in that position. In fact, I think while Jackson is a good ballplayer, he is dead last in this position.
Ramirez is the best solely because he is, well, Manny Ramirez. Gonzalez and Blanks are two awesome young potential studs who will have a chance to shine this year, and DeRosa is a great ballplayer who will hit better than Jackson.
But in left field it’s all about Mannywood, even if he wants to play in Japan...
Advantage: Los Angeles
Center Field
Arizona: Chris Young
San Francisco: Aaron Rowand
Los Angeles: Matt Kemp
Colorado: Dexter Fowler
San Diego: Tony Gwynn
Kemp is obviously the best center fielder in the league, arguably in the game. But after him, I like Chris Young. I think he can come back and be successful. I like his bat, and I like his speed.
Regardless of how Young performs, he has more upside than Rowand and Gwynn. Fowler is a great young project too but will really only steal more bases than Young and nothing more.
Young is turning 27 in September, and I think he has the ability to get back to his 2007 form. But he’s not dating anyone famous...
Advantage: Los Angeles
Right Field
Arizona: Justin Upton
San Francisco: Nate Schierholtz
Los Angeles: Andre Ethier
Colorado: Brad Hawpe
San Diego: Will Venable
Justin Upton. Hands down. He will turn 23 this August and is one of the better hitters in the game. I predict a 30/30 season from him while batting .300 in the third spot in the order. He is the real deal.
The only competition for best spot in the division is Ethier, who has power but no speed and will hit 20 points lower in average. Hawpe is a good player and will put up some numbers, but he won’t steal bases either. Schierholtz and Venable won’t last for more than three more years in the league, if that. Justin Upton will last 20...
Advantage: Arizona
Aces
Arizona: Brandon Webb, Dan Haren
San Francisco: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain
Los Angeles: Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley
Colorado: Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook
San Diego: Chris Young, Kevin Correia
I think the debate really resides between the Giants and the Diamondbacks. I think Haren matches up with Lincecum and Webb outperforms Cain. I like the Arizona duo. The team has a better offence and thus more run production.
Kershaw and Billingsley would come in next. Both are young, and Kershaw has tremendous upside, but he still has durability questions.
Colorado’s pitching is oddly good, and I don’t think it will win for much longer. As for San Diego, they have a great pitcher's park, but there’s just not enough talent all across the field.
Webb and Haren, however, will walk about 80 batters between themselves...
Advantage: Arizona
Back End
Arizona: Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy
San Francisco: Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez
Los Angeles: Hideki Kuroda, Vicente Padilla
Colorado: Jorge De La Rosa, Jeff Francis
San Diego: Jon Garland, Clayton Richard
Again, it is a matchup between Arizona and San Francisco, and again I think the matchup goes to Arizona.
Jackson is a fantastic pitcher who struggled in Detroit in the second half last year, but he admitted that he didn’t trust his fastball enough and claims that he corrected it. He’s also moving from the AL to the NL, which is a move that always favors pitchers.
Same with Kennedy. He is going to get a chance to start after being a highly touted prospect with the Yankees for several years.
Jackson is a better pitcher than Zito at this point, and Kennedy will be more consistent than Sanchez.
Kuroda will be interesting to watch this year, but Padilla is getting up there in age. I think the same thing about Colorado as I do a paragraph above, and the same goes with San Diego.
As far as talent goes, the D’Backs still boast the most in this position...
Advantage: Arizona
Closers
Arizona: Chad Qualls
San Francisco: Brian Wilson
Los Angeles: Jonathan Broxton
Colorado: Huston Street
San Diego: Heath Bell
I think this division has five perennial closers, and it is a tough one to choose who is better. In terms of stuff I have to go Broxton, Street, Qualls, Bell, and then Wilson, but none of them are far behind the other. I would have to give the prize to Broxton, just due to his overpowering pitches though.
Advantage: Los Angeles
Setup
Arizona: Bob Howry
San Francisco: Jeremy Affeldt
Los Angeles: George Sherrill
Colorado: Franklin Morales
San Diego: Luke Gregerson
Again, five quality setup men. I would only give it to Affeldt because he has been the most dominating over the last two seasons, but none of these pitchers will lose many games.
Advantage: San Francisco
Managers
Arizona: A.J. Hinch
San Francisco: Bruce Bochy
Los Angeles: Joe Torre
Colorado: Jim Tracy
San Diego: Bud Black
Joe Torre just knows how to run a clubhouse, and with his experience there is no comparison. He has the advantage, hands down. I would then rank them Tracy, Bochy, Hinch, and Black.
I like Hinch though; he is one of the up-and-coming former catchers of this generation who is managing. Joe Girardi, another former catcher of that class, won the World Series last year. But Torre has won four...
Advantage: Los Angeles
The Results
Overall, I see the D’Backs with the best overall team. They have much better hitting than the Giants, better pitching than the Dodgers, better pitching than the Rockies, and a much better team than the Padres.
That said, here are the stats:
Advantages
Arizona Diamondbacks: 5
San Francisco Giants: 1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 4
Colorado Rockies: 1
San Diego Padres: 2
Let’s hope this translates to the field.
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