After a 2007 campaign in which the Braves saw their bullpen compile the NL's second-best ERA (3.58), 2008 was a year that saw some of the 'pen's best arms (Gonzalez carried over from last year, Moylan, and Soriano) miss significant time due to injuries.
Add to this the futile rotation, and the team's second-tier arms (Acosta, when he was healthy, Ohman, who is gone for 2009 due to free agency, Boyer, and Bennett) saw extreme amounts of time that hurt their ability down the stretch (or what can be called the "stretch" for a 90-loss team)
Many experts and onlookers, such as those here on Bleacher Report, have dismissed the Braves' bullpen as a futile group of underachievers and under-performers based on the following numbers from 2008 (W-L G/IP/HA/K/BB/ERA, all stats are from player proflies on MLB.com):
Acosta 3-5 46/53.0/48/31/26/3.57
Bennett 3-7 72/97.1/86/68/47/3.70
Boyer 2-6 76/72.0/73/67/25/5.88
Carlyle 2-0 45/62.2/52/85/26/3.59
Gonzalez 0-3 36/33.2/26/44/14/4.28 14/16 SV opp
Logan (w/CWS) 2-3 55/42.1/57/42/14/5.95
Moylan 0-1 7/5.2/5/5/1/1.59
Soriano 0-1 14/14/7/16/9/2.57
I can see how people can be a tad pessimistic with stats like these from last season.
But, I'm not totally absorbed in stats. I'm more into circumstances.
When your top four guys in the rotation, you may have yourself a small problem with keeping your 'pen fresh.
Throwing out JJ/Morton/Jo-Jo/Campillo/whoever isn't hurt, with the exceptions of JJ and Campillo, you're lucky to get five or six innings out of your starter. This leaves three or four innings for your bullpen to fill which, in today's game, means about five relievers (LRP, LHspec, MRP, SU, CL).
So, these numbers, although I don't have the first half/second half splits, were greatly affected by the wear that their arms were feeling by August and September.
(also, Mike Gonzalez's ERA is as bad as it is because of NON-SAVE situations, many of you Braves fans may remember the pain we experiences when the rocker came jogging in without the pressure on)
Now, I am going to give my projections for the 2009 Braves bullpen with the support of a much-improved rotation (same line as above w/o W-L, and the numbers are tweaked slightly from my last round of numbers b/c of further analysis)
LRP R Campillo 62/70.2/61/57/21/3.89
MRP R Boyer 65/62.1/67/69/23/4.21
MRP R Acosta 57/56.0/62/48/19/3.42
LOOGY Logan 71/61.2/74/59/20/4.09
SU R Moylan 78/81.0/63/63/33/1.80*
SU R Soriano 71/72.0/50/68/19/2.68*
CL L Gonzalez 55/56.0/41/61/33/2.12 37/39 SV opp**
*based on 2007
**based on 2006 with Pirates
Are these optimistic (this would be a 'pen ERA of about 3.17)? Yes, but are they out of reach? Absolutely not.
Every single guy who makes up this bullpen has the potential to be dominant, and if any of them are shaky, Medlen, Marek, and many others are waiting for their chance to see the majors.
Despite what many think, I have faith in this group, and with a core of Moylan, Soriano, and Gonzalez coming back healthy, there is NO reason I shouldn't.
- Login to post comments