This is an article I wrote for RBI Magazine, which can be found here.
Key Additions
SS Adam Everett, C Gerald Laird, RHP Edwin Jackson, RHP Brandon Lyon, C Matt Treanor, RHP Juan Rincon
Key Subtractions
OF Matt Joyce, LHP Kenny Rogers, SS Edgar Renteria, RP Kyle Farnsworth, CL Todd Jones
A Look at the Lineup
CF Curtis Granderson
Curtis has spent the majority of Spring Training coming off the bench for team USA in the World Baseball Classic. While he may not be getting as many at-bats as he would be if he were with the Tigers in Lakeland, he’ll still be the Opening Day leadoff hitter for the Tigs.
Granderson is a mainstay in center field; expect him to have similar numbers to the last couple years.
2B Placido Polanco
Placido has been the No. 2 hitter for the Tigers since he came over in a trade from Philadelphia in 2006. He has hit above .300 in four out of the last six years—and those other two years weren’t too shabby (.295 and .298). He’ll be the everyday second baseman.
RF Magglio Ordonez
Magglio is one of the four Tigers players that have been playing for team Venezuela in the WBC. Maggs had a bit of a drop-off last year from his stellar 2007 season, but that was to be expected.
He still hit a more than respectable .317/21/103. I’d expect similar numbers from him this year. He’ll be the everyday right fielder barring injury or the occasional day off.
1B Miguel Cabrera
Miguel is another Tigers player on team Venezuela in the WBC. Miguel is probably one of the most prominent hitters in baseball, and I don’t think he gets all that much attention with the likes of A-Rod, Manny, Hanley, etc. He will be 26 years old in April and is coming off a career year in HR and RBI.
His batting average took a hit due to a musty start to last season, but he should rebound in that category this season. I don’t expect this true hitter to produce any less than he has so far in his young career.
LF Carlos Guillen
Guillen will make the switch from 3B to LF this season with hopes to remain a bit healthier than he did last year. Nagging back and leg injuries forced him to miss his fair share of games, and hopefully this position change will make him more durable.
That being said, he’s still a very productive hitter and will probably put up numbers close to what he had in 2007 if he stays healthy (.296/21/102).
DH Gary Sheffield
Sheffield came into Spring Training feeling healthier than he has in years. He’s missed 200 games over the past three seasons due to a lingering shoulder injury that heavily impacted his swing and his production.
With his shoulder finally healthy again, he should start to produce like he did late in the 2007 season. He is just one home run shy of 500, and it’d be safe to guess he’ll shatter that this season.
Peter Gammons said if Sheffield remains healthy, he could be this season’s Comeback Player of the Year. All signs point to him being healthy.
C Gerald Laird
Laird was acquired in a trade with Texas this offseason. He will be the everyday catcher, taking over for Brandon Inge, who is moving back to 3B. Laird has a little pop in his bat, but the Tigers will rely on his defensive capabilities more than anything else. In 2008, he cut down runners at nearly a 40 percent clip.
If he hits anything like he did for Texas in 2008, it would be considered gratuitous in the eyes of the Tigers.
Matt Treanor was signed to give Laird a breather every now and then.
3B Brandon Inge
As mentioned before, Inge will be moving back to 3B to assume those duties this season. After attributing his struggles at the plate to not knowing when he would be playing and catching most of last season, he no longer has a valid excuse not to produce at a higher level.
He will be in the lineup every day this season—unless he continues to hit just a shade over the Mendoza line like he did last year.
The Tigers would like to see him get back to his 2005 and 2006 production level, which still isn’t much. He’s just a career .237 hitter, and hopefully flashing the leather at third will take the focus off his inevitably low batting average (although he is hitting .294 in spring training through March 20).
SS Adam Everett
Everett is another offseason acquisition for the Tigers to help shore up the holes on defense. He is not known for his stick, but is known for his glove. He will certainly save the Tigers some runs on defense but won’t produce much at the dish.
This career .246 hitter has a career .976 fielding percentage, which puts him up there as one of the game’s best defensive shortstops.
He’s not the generally preferred speed guy in the nine hole, although he did have 21 steals in 2005, but he generally puts the ball in play. The Tigers are not expecting much from him at the plate; just that he continues to be the vacuum he’s been his entire career at shortstop.
The only concern with him is that he’s only played 114 games in the past two years.
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A look at the pitching
1. Justin Verlander
2. Jeremy Bonderman
3. Armando Galarraga
4. Edwin Jackson
5. Nate Robertson, Zach Miner, Dontrelle Willis, or Rick Porcello
The biggest question mark looms over the No. 5 spot. Who will it be? Your guess is probably about as good as anyone’s at this point. The job has been Nate Robertson’s for the past few years, and with his monster contract that he just signed, he probably had the best shot to win it this spring.
However, he has pitched poorly for the most part and has left the door wide open for others to step right in.
Willis also has a big contract the Tigers do not want to just squander, but they are not going to put him out there if he can’t find the strike zone. Then there is the inexperienced 20-year-old Rick Porcello and typically long relief man, Zach Miner.
Porcello has been very efficient this spring, but the word around camp is that the Tigers don’t want to rush this golden arm who hasn’t thrown an inning yet above A ball. Miner has been efficient in his brief stints as a starter in years past, but has not helped his cause this spring with some miserable outings.
If I were to guess based on pure talent alone, I’d say Porcello will be the guy to take the ball on the fifth day of the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone else be handed the job until Porcello is deemed ready.
The other big question mark in camp has been the health of Jeremy Bonderman. He is coming off season-ending shoulder surgery and just threw his first two innings of the spring today against Atlanta because he had been feeling discomfort in the same shoulder.
If he can’t be ready by the start of the season, one of the five spot candidates will get an extra chance to win a spot.
Bullpen
Key relievers: Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, Bobby Seay, Joel Zumaya, and Ryan Perry
There is really only one thing that is for sure with the Detroit Tigers pitching: Their bullpen is in a lot better shape than it was this time last season. This year, they are going to have tough decisions to make with a few guys as to whether they even make the team. Last year, they didn’t have enough quality guys to decide between.
Surprisingly, one of those guys is Joel Zumaya. He has not thrown since March 2, and there continue to be question marks surrounding the overall health of his shoulder. If he’s not going to be able to pitch by Opening Day, he will not break camp with the Tigers.
The Tigers have seen promising things from Juan Rincon, Casey Fien, and even Scott Williamson lately, all of whom could break camp as part of the ‘pen. Ryan Perry is also making a very strong bid to fill the shoes of Joel Zumaya a la 2006 style. He could wind up being the wild card of this Tigers bullpen.
The other major question is who will do the closing with Todd Jones retiring at the end of last season. Right now, it looks as if it will be newly acquired RHP Brandon Lyon’s job with Rodney being the main setup guy, as long as Zumaya continues to have shoulder problems.
Lyon did a more than serviceable job as the closer for Arizona before tanking in the second half last year. Hopefully for the Tigers' sake, he can regain that first half swagger and hold on to it throughout the 2009 campaign. He is having a very promising spring thus far.
Outlook
The grand theme for the Tigers is their health. They were where they were in 2008 because they were generally never healthy. Granderson missed the first month, Magglio went on the DL at one point, Bonderman had a season-ending injury, Guillen missed nearly 50 games, and Sheffield and Zumaya were never really healthy.
Health is generally the main key for most teams, but the Tigers' success probably hinges on that more than any other team.
For the most part, they appear a lot healthier than they were last year, so they should definitely improve upon last year’s finish. Although they might not reach last season’s preseason hype, they are virtually the same team that was the preseason favorite to win the World Series by so many expert analysts.
I think if Zumaya and Bonderman are healthy and have bounce back seasons, those 2008 predictions are not unreasonable for 2009.
Prediction
Unfortunately, I don’t trust Bonderman and Zumaya’s health enough right now to predict them to win the World Series. However, they do improve significantly with the added defense and arms to the staff. Expect the Tigers to be in the hunt for most of this season but fall short in the end.
84-78 (second place in the AL Central)
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