How important is winning Game 3 of the National League Division Series? Not quite as important as you might think. Of the 10 previous best-of-five series, nine arrived at Game 3 with the series deadlocked. The team that emerged victorious went on to advance to the National League Championship Series five times.
Falling behind 2-1 in the series isn't ideal, but those numbers at least offer some hope for the club that loses Monday night's meeting between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.
With the Dodgers posting a losing road record during the regular season (37-44) and the Mets having one of baseball's best home records (49-32), the Game 3 advantage would seem to lie with the host team. And maybe the Mets deserve to be slightly favored heading into the action.
But the real advantage will go to the club that comes closest to delivering on the following keys to victory.
Both Teams Must Keep Emotions in Check
Depending where your rooting interest lies, Chase Utley's slide into second base that broke Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada's leg in Game 2 either looked like this:
Or like this.
While Utley has been suspended for Games 3 and 4, reported ESPNLosAngeles.com's Mark Saxon, and he's appealed the suspension, according to his agent, Joel Wolfe, per Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan.
If he plays—he does have good career numbers against Mets starter Matt Harvey (6-for-18 with a double, home run and .908 OPS), "The Dark Knight" should plunk Utley with a fastball in his first at-bat and get it out of the way.
If he doesn't, the Mets shouldn't look for revenge on a random Dodger, whether it be hitting one with a pitch or trying to take out an infielder at second base with an out-of-control slide.
Utley may be New York's most wanted, but this isn't The Untouchables.
Should the Mets decide that payback can't wait and plunk someone, the Dodgers need to just accept it for what it is and move on. The last thing either team needs at this point is for another player to go down with an injury that was entirely avoidable.
Dodgers Infield Defense Must Be on Point
No starting pitcher did a better job of keeping the ball on the ground this year than Los Angeles' Game 3 starter Brett Anderson, whose 66.3 percent ground-ball rate was the highest among qualified starters.
But the Dodgers infield defense, specifically in the middle of the diamond, is far from Gold Glove-caliber.
If Utley is unable to play, the Dodgers will be losing their best defensive option at second base, where his 4.3 UZR/150 and 5 DRS lead the club. That would put added pressure on his likely replacement, Howie Kendrick, who happens to be suffering through the worst defensive season of his career.
Regardless of who makes up Los Angeles' double-play combination in Game 3, that player is going to have to elevate his game when in the field if the Dodgers are truly going to take advantage of Anderson's penchant for keeping the ball on the ground.
Mets Must Ignore the Splits
While most teams tend to see an uptick in offensive production at home, the Mets aren't like most teams.
New York's home slugging percentage and OPS ranked 26th in baseball; its batting average ranked dead last.
Those splits become even more alarming when you look at how some of the biggest bats in the team's lineup produce—or rather fail to produce—in the confines of Citi Field.
If you're a Mets fan, those numbers do nothing to indicate that the team will be able to put more than five runs on the board, as they did in Games 1 and 2 combined at Dodger Stadium. Only first baseman Lucas Duda and third baseman David Wright have been more productive at home than on the road.
Granted, New York's stellar pitching tends to make a lack of offense less of an issue than it would be for other teams, and both Duda and Wright are capable of carrying the offense for a night or two.
But the team's chances of ending the series at home—or at the very least forcing a Game 5 back in Los Angeles—would be far better if someone else followed the lead set by their corner infielders.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk playoff baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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