Tim Lincecum was never supposed to last this long. But he was never supposed to go away so soon.
He was too small and too funky, and he was never going to endure. Then he was a two-time Cy Young winner and a World Series champion, and he was going to be a San Francisco Giant forever.
He scared away so many scouts that five college pitchers were drafted ahead of him in 2006 (Greg Reynolds? Brad Lincoln? Brandon Morrow?). But he convinced the Giants to the point that they offered him $100 million for five years (he said no).
Lincecum never fit into any standard model, and he always defied every prediction.
And that's why I'm still not convinced that the hip surgery that ended Lincecum's 2015 season will also end his Giants career.
There's every reason to believe that it will. Lincecum will be a free agent at season's end, and while the reports Thursday were that he'll fully recover by spring training, there's no way the Giants can sign him for anything close to the $18 million he made this season in the last campaign of a two-year, $35 million contract.
No one else will, either, but it's often harder for a player to stay in the same place with a drastically reduced salary.
Giants general manager Bobby Evans wouldn't even discuss the issue when he spoke to reporters Thursday, according to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News.
"The timing to discuss that will have to come later," Evans said.
In one way, you could hardly blame the Giants for saying goodbye now. As much of a bargain as Lincecum was at the start of his career, the Giants have paid him $75 million for a 39-42 record and a 4.68 ERA over the last four years (if you prefer modern stats, they've paid the same money for minus-2.7 WAR, per Baseball-Reference.com).
It's hard to know how much that lack of success was related to the health issues that eventually led to Thursday's surgery. Way back in April 2012, I wrote about "whispers around the game" that Lincecum's hip was bothering him, and that he couldn't drive toward the plate with his usual strength.
Lincecum denied it then, and Baggarly wrote Thursday that any issues before this year were more stiffness than pain. While Lincecum's overall numbers haven't come close to matching what he did from 2007 to 2011, he did throw no-hitters in both 2013 and 2014.
And when the Giants moved him to the bullpen in the 2012 postseason, Lincecum pitched effectively and helped the Giants to their second World Series crown.
He barely pitched in the 2014 playoffs (1.2 innings in one World Series game), but Lincecum will still go down as one of the most recognizable and most significant figures from the best times the Giants franchise has ever had.
Maybe it's over for him now, at least in San Francisco. I'm not convinced.
Lincecum is still just 31. Hip surgeries are serious, but they don't need to be career-ending, as Alex Rodriguez and Troy Tulowitzki are proving. Dr. Marc Philippon, who did their surgeries, also did Lincecum's.
He told the Giants that the surgery was successful, with a five-month recovery timetable, per Baggarly. Giants athletic trainer Dave Groeschner told reporters that Lincecum will begin the rehab process Friday.
"Nobody wants to have surgery," Groeschner said. "He did everything he could to try to avoid it. It's just, he wants to get back to being Tim Lincecum."
I can see it. I can see him in that same Giants uniform, perhaps with the hair grown all the way out again. I can see him on that same mound, defying every prediction one more time.
I can see it, and it turns out I'm not alone. When Baggarly and other reporters approached Buster Posey on Thursday to ask about Lincecum's time as a Giant, Posey refused to describe it in the past tense.
"It's hard to sit here and share memories because I fully expect him to be back," Posey told them.
I'm not as confident as that, but I can see it.
Or maybe I just want to see it.
Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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