The 2014-15 MLB offseason is just getting started. The winter meetings begin Dec. 7 in San Diego, but even that much-scrutinized annual confab is usually more about laying groundwork than swinging massive deals.
Gabe Lacques of USA Today put it bluntly, calling the meetings "arguably baseball's most overhyped event."
Still, the hot stove crackled in November. Speculation swirled, a handful of top-tier free agents fell off the board, and the lid was popped on blockbuster swaps.
As Lacques noted in the same piece, with "several teams itching to spend and blue-chip players on the trade block," this year's meetings could be the exception to the all-talk, no-action rule.
As we wait for players, agents and executives to descend on Southern California, here are three early trends that offer grist for the rumor mill and insight into how the rest of the offseason will unfold.
Power Is in High Demand
It's not just chicks who dig the long ball. So do major league general managers, as evidenced by the hefty contracts handed out thus far to the few power bats on the market.
It began with Victor Martinez, who barely had time to test the waters before the Detroit Tigers re-upped him for four years and $68 million on Nov. 12.
Martinez is coming off the best offensive season of his career, but he also turns 36 this month and is a defensive nonentity. That Detroit was willing to commit so many dollars and years so early in the process said a lot about the value of impact bats—namely, that it's sky high.
Less than two weeks later, the Boston Red Sox made their twin splashes, inking Hanley Ramirez (four years, $88 million) and Pablo Sandoval (five years, $95 million).
Then, on Monday, the Seattle Mariners snatched up Nelson Cruz, according to Yancen Pujols of El Caribe (via Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes).
Like Martinez, Cruz is coming off an exemplary offensive campaign. But also like Martinez, he's in his mid-30s and is limited defensively. And because he rejected the Baltimore Orioles' qualifying offer, signing him meant forfeiting a draft pick.
Then there are the lingering questions about his PED use, which led to a 50-game suspension in 2013.
Still, Seattle handed Cruz $57 million and, more importantly, the four years he was seeking.
Add young Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas (six years, $68.5 million from the Arizona Diamondbacks), Russell Martin (five years, $82 million from the Toronto Blue Jays), Adam LaRoche (two years, $25 million from the Chicago White Sox), Billy Butler (three years, $30 million from the Oakland A's) and Michael Cuddyer (two years, $21 million from the New York Mets), and the bulk of the free-agent bats have been snatched up.
As Tyler Kepner of the New York Times notes:
The average major league team scored 4.07 runs per game in 2014, the lowest figure for a full season since 1976. The desperation for offense is reflected in this free-agent market. Teams have all but picked clean the hitters aisles, but the shelves are overflowing with pitchers.
Speaking of which...
There's a Free-Agent Pitcher Logjam
This was supposed to be the offseason of the pitcher, and it still might be. But the glut of available arms has slowed the process as everyone waits for the marquee names to set the bar for everyone else.
Those names are ace-level studs like Max Scherzer and Jon Lester, who have drawn at least cursory interest from virtually every team with rotation holes to plug and two nickels to rub together.
After that, the market is flush with intriguing options: James Shields, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana...the list goes on.
Yet other than A.J. Burnett, who inked a modest one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, every free-agent hurler remains unsigned.
That'll change, possibly as soon as the winter meetings. And expect Scherzer and Lester to land eye-popping, nine-figure deals; CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman hears the Chicago Cubs have already made Lester a six-year, $138 million offer.
Others, though, could see their value depleted by the high supply, especially Liriano and Santana, who rejected the qualifying offer and thus carry the dreaded draft-compensation stigma.
And what about Japan's arm du jour, 26-year-old Kenta Maeda? Maeda twirled five scoreless frames against the MLB contingent in the recent exhibition Japan All-Star Series and may or may not be posted by the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of the Nippon Professional Baseball league.
Surely squads with visions of Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka dancing in their heads would line up to woo a pitcher who MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince thinks "could slot into the top half of a rotation."
For now, Maeda adds more uncertainty to an already uncertain picture.
Big Names Are on the Block
If there was any doubt this offseason would feature at least a few game-changing trades, the Oakland A's erased it when they dealt third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Toronto Blue Jays.
The move, first reported by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, sent third baseman Brett Lawrie, right-hander Kendall Graveman, left-hander Sean Nolin and shortstop Franklin Barreto to Oakland.
It also sent a clear signal to every MLB executive: A's general manager Billy Beane is ready to deal.
"We've spent a lot of minor league capital in the last couple years," Beane told MLB Network (via HardballTalk). "Now, looking forward, I think we've got to be cognizant of the next couple years."
If he was willing to give up Donaldson—a soon-to-be 29-year-old whose 6.4 WAR ranked sixth among MLB position players, per FanGraphs—who else might be on the block?
How about starter Jeff Samardzija, who Oakland acquired from the Cubs at the deadline last year?
John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group shot down a rumor that Samardzija was bound for the Atlanta Braves, but the right-hander has been linked to numerous other clubs and, with only one year left on his current deal, seems like an obvious sell-high candidate for Beane.
Oakland isn't alone in dangling top-flight arms. As MLB.com's Castrovince reports, a gaggle of head-turning names—including Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies, Jordan Zimmermann of the Washington Nationals and Mat Latos of the Cincinnati Reds—are "at least open for discussion."
As for hitters, the Atlanta Braves already sent Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals and could be looking to move another young outfielder, Justin Upton. Upton smacked 29 home runs to go along with 102 RBI last season.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, meanwhile, need to unload someone from their overcrowded outfield and appear to be listening on Matt Kemp, who enjoyed a bounce-back 2014 (25 HR, .287/.346/.506 slash line, 89 RBI) that makes him more than palatable, especially if L.A. is willing to eat some of the eight-year, $160 million contract he signed in November 2011.
Which players switch uniforms, and which keep their laundry, remains to be seen. What's clear, though, is that this rapidly evolving offseason is about to get interesting—even more than it's already been.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
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