If you're a fan of star-studded Major League Baseball free-agent classes, I come bearing bad news. There's not going to be one this winter. Sorry.
But hey, at least Edwin Encarnacion will be out there. That's something. A big something, even.
The Toronto Blue Jays slugger is one of those guys who's easy to lose sight of, but he's also someone you just know is probably doing his thing at any given moment. Sure enough, doing his thing is how he contributed to a 4-1 victory over the Houston Astros on Thursday. In the ninth inning, he clocked the ball over the left field fence and rounded the bases with his right arm cocked out:
Encarnacion's latest long ball was his 30th of 2016. The 33-year-old has now topped 30 dingers in each of the last five seasons, which rearranges the list of all the players who have done so to look like this:
- Edwin Encarnacion
Yup. That's it. Just him.
Encarnacion also boasts a .902 OPS, putting him on track to make it five straight seasons with an OPS that begins with a nine. He has some company in that club, but it's only one kinda-sorta-very important guy: Mike Trout.
For at least the next two months, the Blue Jays can take facts and figures like these as a reminder that they're lucky to have Encarnacion. He wasn't considered a top asset when he first came to town in 2009. Then came some of the best power in the game, which hasn't regressed as he's gotten older. Before long, it could help the Blue Jays win a second straight American League East title.
But after the next couple of months pass into legend, Encarnacion's power will be available to the highest bidder.
The Blue Jays signed Encarnacion to one extension when they locked him up on a three-year, $29 million deal back in 2012. That's turned out to be a severe underpay, so it's no wonder he isn't looking to settle for less than market value as he heads toward free agency.
Back in April, this was the situation, as told by Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports:
Odds are Toronto's next offer to Encarnacion will only be the qualifying offer. ESPN's Buster Olney reported it will be worth $16.7 million this winter, per sources. That's a lot of money, but Encarnacion would surely turn it down and risk going out into the open market with draft-pick compensation hanging over his head.
There's a sliver of a chance of that strategy backfiring. If there's anything the free-agent market is as wary or more wary of than players tied to draft-pick compensation, it's older players. With his age-34 season due up in 2017, Encarnacion will fit both descriptions.
He's also not without his flaws. He can hold his own at first base, but the best role for him will be as a full-time designated hitter. And with his previously excellent contact habit now merely average, at least one age-related crack is starting to show at the plate.
However, Encarnacion has two precedents from 2014 to turn to for hope. Nelson Cruz came off his age-33 season and got four years and $57 million from the Seattle Mariners, and Victor Martinez came off his age-35 season and got four years and $68 million from the Detroit Tigers. Good money for two older, bat-only players.
If there's a handicap Encarnacion will face that neither of those two had to, it's that the state of offense in MLB has changed dramatically. When Cruz and Martinez were free agents, the league was coming off a season when the average slugging percentage was .386. That number has skyrocketed to .417 in 2016, thanks to a barrage of dingers that has people talking about juiced balls and juiced players.
But teams are always going to need power. And this winter, the power market won't have anyone who can measure up to Encarnacion.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote in May that this winter will feature the worst free-agent class in decades. Part of the raw deal is a shortage of good power bats. The other big ones outside of Encarnacion will belong to fellow (for now) Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo and, in all likelihood, Yoenis Cespedes. All three can match Encarnacion in raw power but not in consistency.
Even if his market is limited to American League clubs searching for a first base/DH type, it's already apparent he could have one interested suitor in Boston. The Red Sox are due to say goodbye to longtime DH David Ortiz, and he knows who he wants to take up his mantle.
“The Red Sox know that they need to reinforce the middle of the lineup,” Ortiz said over the All-Star break, per Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. “And sorry, Blue Jays, but who better than Encarnacion to do that?”
Then, Ortiz's comments prompted MLB to open a tampering investigation. This offseason, the team could have president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and other Red Sox executives nodding in agreement. Encarnacion would indeed help the Red Sox replace Big Papi's lost production. And as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe noted, Red Sox skipper John Farrell and coaches Torey Lovullo and Brian Butterfield are all former Blue Jays who are fans of Encarnacion.
Apart from the Red Sox, other clubs that could be on the lookout for a power-hitting first base/DH type this winter are the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. If a couple of National League clubs are willing to roll the dice on him as a first baseman, his market will be robust.
It then wouldn't be surprising if Encarnacion not only matches Cruz's or Martinez's deal but also beats either one. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors floated a possible four-year contract worth $20 million or more per year.
That would be a lot of money. But then again, Encarnacion hits a lot of dingers.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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