As baseball fans and sabermetric gurus, we all believe that we can predict how a player will perform year in and year out. We spend hours of our precious time watching video and looking up stats. We know who is real and who isn't.
We don’t forgive players who under-perform, unless of course that player is taken down with a nasty injury that cripple’ your division-winning fantasy team (not to mention, the actual player and his team) and in turn affects the expectations that you had for said player.
When those things happen, we go and look at how that player performed compared to his career standards, just to make sure he wasn't falling apart under our very noses while his injury covered it up.
We ask, how many home runs per at bat did he average when compared to previous years? How lucky was he? Did he have a decent batting average on balls in play (BABIP) ,or did he just fail to hit ‘em where they ain’t ?
Baseball is becoming a smart man’s game, and as I look to draft my many fantasy teams this year, I find myself asking a very popular question about players who suddenly do the opposite, they over-perform.
Why?
Why did Joe Mauer hit 28 home runs last year when in the previous three seasons he hit a combined 29?
Why did Ben Zobrist explode onto the scene when he was merely considered a utility player at the beginning of the year?
In this column, I will be looking into these surprise hitting performances and asking the simple question: Why?
The answers, unfortunately, will only come at the end of September.
Catcher: Joe Mauer , Minnesota
Mauer really is an exceptional athlete. He missed the entire month of April recovering from offseason kidney surgery. Then he showed up in May and hit .365, crushed 28 home runs, drove in 96 runs and scored 94 over the next five months.
We all knew of Mauer’s superior batting average. He hit .328 in 2008 and .347 in 2006, so that’s not a surprise, and given his growth at the plate the RBI’s and runs scored were not out of line with his career numbers. But 28 home runs? Come on, that's just stupid. His previous career high was 13.
Many say it is simply him coming into his own as a power hitter, and I can accept that. He has always demonstrated the ability to hit the ball very hard and very far. But the man hits line drives and not towering home runs. When you look at it, the same thing applied last year. He didn’t launch Adam Dunn type bombs; his home runs just sailed over the fence because he hit it so hard.
That said, I want to give him another year before I conform to his label as a power hitter. He is an amazing player, one of the very best in the game, and will be a hall of famer if he can stay healthy. I’m just not sold on 20 plus home runs every year.
Realistic Expectations for Mauer: .325 – 15 – 85 - 85
First Base: Kendry Morales , Anaheim
The Los Angeles Angels have groomed the young Cuban for years, and he was the big reason why they were willing to let Mark Teixeira go without a fight.
Morales responded last year with a .306 AVG, 34 home runs, 108 RBI, and 86 runs scored in his first full year as a starter. Which begs the question, is he for real or was he a one hit wonder?
I don’t think he is a fluke at all. He had been waiting for his opportunity for years, and the Angels, who are traditionally very patient with their rookie players, allowed him to develop mentally and physically before they asked him to fill Teixeira’s shoes.
What will he do going forward? Being in the middle of a potent Angels' lineup will not hurt him, and 2010 will be his age 26/27 season. I think Morales will post even better numbers. He is especially valuable at first base because with him you can still get top fantasy points, but you won’t have to draft him until the top seven or eight players are gone.
Realistic Expectations for Morales: .310 – 35 – 125 - 90
Second Base: Ben Zobrist , Tampa Bay
Zobrist began 2009 as a utility infielder and finished as one of the top performing second basemen in the league, even more exciting because it is a shallow fantasy position in the first place.
In 501 at bats he hit .297 with 27 home runs, 91 RBI, 91 runs ,and 17 stolen bases. He made owners who had decided to pick him up on a whim shout for joy.
But how did a guy who never hit more than seven home runs a year in the minors develop so much power so quickly?
In 2008 he hit 12 home runs in 198 at bats, a ratio of 16.5 (at bats per home runs ). In 2009 his ratio was 18.555. When you compare these numbers to his minor league ratio of 58.086, your eyebrows raise and you shake your head slightly to make sure you read it correctly (don’t worry, you did).
Again, many say this is a case of him coming into his own as a power hitter. Unlike Mauer, I believe Zobrist is the real deal. He hits fly balls, which helps his credentials, but he also walks a ton, with 91 in 501 at bats. This is a phenomenal number for a first time regular, but it is not unexpected given his past. Zobrist’s on base percentage in the minors was .419, which translates to an athlete with exceptional knowledge of the strike zone. And also one who makes me ask, why wasn’t he on anyone's radar sooner?
Realistic Expectations for Zobrist: .285 – 25 – 85 - 85
Second Base: Aaron Hill , Toronto
Hill was a former first round draft pick out of Louisiana State, so expectations have always been there. After a concussion completely ruined his 2008 season, many questioned whether he could even return to his 2007 form when he hit .291 with 17 home runs, 78 RBI, and 87 runs scored.
Hill responded by hitting.286 with 36 home runs, 108 RBI, and 103 runs, laying to rest any doubts anyone had at the beginning of the year.
I must admit, I drafted him in one of my top leagues that year and traded him for Hideki Matsui in early April, considering that I had Howard Kendrick waiting on my bench and what I would lose from power, would gain in batting average. How foolish of me. I began regretting that decision in early May.
I don’t think that Hill is a fluke; while I think his home runs total won’t surge near 40 this year, Toronto has a fantastic 28-year-old second baseman on their hands.
Realistic Expectations for Hill: .285 – 30 – 90 – 90
Third Base: Mark Reynolds , Arizona
After a 28 home run, 97 RBI campaign in 2008, most expected about the same production from him in 2009, especially the record-breaking 204 strikeouts that he recorded. Well, Reynolds over performed in every category, including strikeouts, last year, setting a new record on top of his old record, with 223.
It is absolutely amazing to me, that a batter can strike out that many times in a season and still find success in the major leagues. Adam Dunn of the Nationals is the only batter that I can put into conversation with Reynolds. They both hit for a low average but wallop the absolute tar out of the baseball when they connect. This is fun to watch, that’s why they’re both having success in the big leagues right now.
But the key thing Dunn does that Reynolds has failed to do yet is walk. Dunn averages 101 walks per year. His career on base percentage is .383, which is well above league norm. That’s why Dunn has remained in business for so long.
Reynolds’ career high in walks was last year with 76; his on-base percentage was .349, which was also a career high.
While Reynolds is a high impact player, I just cannot see him playing for even five more seasons with much success unless he significantly alters his approach to hitting.
That said, this year he could still perform and hopes that Arizona will sign him to an extension before the other shoe drops.
Realistic Expectations for Reynolds: .240 – 35 – 85 – 80 - 220
Left Field: Adam Lind , Toronto
With everyone fawning over Travis Snyder as if he were a newly acquired Ferrari, Lind snuck in the back door and robbed them without them ever knowing. Of course, I’m speaking of robbing them of their fantasy championships.
Lind has always had incredible power, but at 25 years old on opening day in 2009, expectations that he would break out were few and far between. But Lind did, crushing 35 home runs in 587 at bats in his first full big league season.
What is even more impressive to me, is that he also hit .305, drove in 114 runs, and scored 93. When you take the rest of his career, a .270 average, 22 home runs, 94 RBI, and 90 runs in 676 at bats, the improvements are astounding in every category.
But was 2009 real, or just an outlier?
I compare Lind to Ryan Howard when I think of where his career will go. He broke out in his mid-twenties and surprised a lot of people. Like Lind, everyone knew Howard had lots of power; they just didn’t know how much. Now, I think that Howard has more rare power than Lind, but I think Lind will continue to hit for a higher batting average.
And besides, if being compared to Ryan Howard is the least you can do, then you’re doing something right.
Realistic Expectations for Lind: .310 – 35 – 110 – 100
Right Field: Jason Werth , Philadelphia
Werth has been around for a long time, since 2002 in fact. He was 30 years old when he broke out in 2009, an age that some consider to be past one’s so called “prime” (which is 27-28). He hit .268 with 36 home runs, 99 RBI, and 98 runs scored in the middle of the packed NL Champion Philadelphia Phillies team, in a tiny ballpark. For some reason that I have yet to understand, most are singing his praises, thanking him for having finally delivered after so many years of struggling.
Granted, in 2008 he did enjoy similar success, hitting .273 with 24 home runs, 67 RBI, and 73 runs scored in 418 at bats. So in translating to a full season, Werth’s 2009 success did not come as an utter shock.
But for a breakout player, I do not like Jason Werth. Sorry, I just don't.
The reason I don’t like him is simple: There is little upside. He is turning 31 in May, and as far as players generally go, could begin to regress very soon. He doesn’t hit for a high average, strikes out almost once a game, and plays a poor defense in right field (six errors in 2009).
But at the same time, he is in the final year of his contract, he still plays in Citizens Bank, and still hits in the middle of a very powerful lineup. Could he see continued success in 2010? Yes. I just don’t see it happening beyond that.
Realistic Expectations for Werth: .265 – 30 – 80 - 85
Right Field: Nelson Cruz , Texas
Another player that broke out late, at 28 years old in 2009, has always had the potential to crush opposing pitchers but has just never found the opportunity to do so. After a 2008 season in the minor leagues were he hit .342 with 37 home runs, 99 RBI ,and 93 runs scored in only 383 at bats (that’s Barry Bonds-like numbers!), manager Ron Washington finally gave Cruz the starting job in right field in 2009.
Cruz went on to hit .260 with 33 home runs, 76 RBI, 75 runs scored ,and steal 20 bases in 462 at bats with the big league club. But at the same time, Washington never fully trusted him, sitting the man for nearly 20 games sporadically throughout the year.
There is justification in Washington's motives; Cruz is a very sporadic and inconsistent hitter. He goes into long slumps that he can’t seem to get out of very easily, and he is a sub-par fielder. Usually when a manager sits a player, there is good reason behind it, and I don’t think Cruz will hit 40 home runs and steal 30 bases like some are claiming that he will do in 2010.
Realistic Expectations for Cruz: .255 – 25 – 60 – 60 - 20
Pitchers: Coming Soon.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments