Fantasy Baseball 2011 Projection: Is Elvis Andrus Overrated?

There is a general feeling among many people that Elvis Andrus is overrated. When you look at his numbers from 2010, it isn’t a surprising thought:

588 At Bats
.265 Batting Average (156 Hits)
0 Home Runs
35 RBI
88 Runs
32 Stolen Bases
.342 On Base Percentage
.301 Slugging Percentage
.317 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The number that jumps off the page is his home run total. If he was hitting for extra bases in other ways it may not be as glaring, but he had just 15 doubles and 3 triples. Both were down from his 2009 campaign when he had 31 total extra base hits (17 doubles, 8 triples, 6 home runs).

It’s not like the latter is very impressive, but at least it is a little bit more appealing.

It isn't likely that he is going to hit for much power, with a career fly ball rate of 21.1 percent through his first two seasons, but after hitting six in 480 AB in his rookie season it is hard to imagine him as a player who doesn’t hit any.

He is still just 22 years old and, with experience, you would think that he will add a little bit of pop.

He’s not likely to suddenly develop into Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins, pairing speed and power, but seeing him rebound into the 6-9 HR range would not be shocking. It would also significantly help his potential value.

He’s being dropped to second in the Rangers lineup this season, with Ian Kinsler moving into the leadoff spot.

Considering the team’s ability to light up the scoreboard, the move should do little to impact our view on his potential to score runs. Seeing him in the 90s is very realistic, especially with his improved ability to draw walks (7.4 percent to 9.5 percent in ’10).

In fact, with Kinsler filling the bases in front of him, one could argue that he has the ability to improve upon his RBI total.

Again, it’s not going to be a dynamic leap into the 70s or 80s, but the 50s or low 60s? Especially if he does add the power that I discussed, it’s a very realistic mark.

The big question, and the biggest source of value, is Andrus’ speed. He stole 23 bases the first half of the season, but was also caught 10 times. His inefficiency helped to cause the Rangers to tighten the reigns in the second half (though he also struggled, hitting .247), with Andrus only attempting 14 stolen bases (and being successful on nine).

You would have to think that improving Andrus’ ability to steal a base is a major priority for the Rangers this season.

He clearly has the speed to be a 40 SB threat, it’s just a matter of teaching him to get the job done. I wouldn’t enter the season expecting it, but it certainly isn’t unreasonable to think that, with more experience, he can achieve the mark in 2011.

You put it all together and get the following projection for 2011:

.285 (171-600), 7 HR, 55 RBI, 90 R, 35 SB, .328 BABIP, .363 OBP, .377 SLG

Obviously, there are a lot of question marks surrounding Andrus, but I don’t think it is unrealistic to see him reach those marks.

In fact, is it hard to imagine him exceeding those types of numbers?

At a weak position, there are plenty of reasons to like Andrus.

Maybe he’s going a little bit early, with an ADP of 71.88 according to Mock Draft Central.

Still, with his potential, especially in the SB department, he has a chance to be a huge asset. After the top six or seven at the position, how much certainty is there really?

What are your thoughts of Andrus? What type of numbers are you expecting from him in ’11? Do you think he could reach my projection?

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