In a similar fashion to the way you will see me break down the outfield, we will do "Draft This, Not That" in the same way. When an owner looks to draft outfielders, too often there is no real plan. The fact is that there are at least three types of outfielders on draft day: The power hitter, the speedster, and the all-around player.
As would be indicated by the names, each would bring something entirely different to the table. Owners, though, will ignore some of this and instead not have a plan to go in and draft them. Here, we will take a look at two Speedster outfielders and a comparison that may open your eyes.
That said, if I am looking at an outfielder for speed, I also want him to contribute in at least one other category. The most common ones to use would be runs or average. Remember, you are getting power in another selection. Still, one-trick ponies should have no place on your roster. Two categories should be the minimum for drafting.
Check this out:
Player A: 97 runs, 47 SB, 5 HR, 47 RBI, .277 AVG, 198 ADP
Player B: 74 runs, 42 SB, 6 HR, 43 RBI, .315 AVG, 32 ADP
So here we have two players contributing in two categories. One gives you the boost of average, the other gives you the boost of runs. Otherwise, the statistics are relatively comparable. Player A saves you about 16 rounds in a 10-team league though. It is not that it makes me draft Player A, but it lets me know I can get the same numbers much later if I do not get Player B early in the game.
Player B in this case is Ichiro. Not a bad pick by any means right? At 37, though, questions have to be asked about a player who has his entire game revolving around speed. It seemed that for years all we saw were highlights of Ichiro legging out infield hits. He has averaged 39 stolen bases over his career, but is this something that he can continue to sustain? The Mariners made no material improvements to their lineup, so will he score more than 80 runs? These are a few key questions that may make you question drafting him in this spot. His constant is average, and the .315 seems like a good place for him to fall going forward.
If you were to get 80 runs, 10 home runs, 35 steals, and a .320 average that would not be anything to be upset with. The rest would simply be gravy.
Player A is the intriguing option and he is Brett Gardner. Gardner scored nearly 100 runs, a nice byproduct of being in the Yankee lineup. He had the most bunt hits and third-most infield hits in all of baseball to go with the 47 steals. His biggest question mark is if the surgery he had in the offseason will heal the wrist that plagued his average in the second half.
After the All-Star break, Gardner hit just .233 as opposed to the .309 before it. Provided that he can find a way to right the ship, Gardner has the potential to be a true late-round find for fantasy owners. If he cannot, the risk we run is the dreaded one-category player talked about at the top of this piece. It would make him partially valuable in rotisserie scoring leagues, but he may be over-drafted even at pick 200 with just one skill.
The upside to drafting Gardner is that there is little risk at that point in the draft. If Gardner steals bases, you are vindicated in your selection. If he does more than that, an owner can look like a genius. The danger in drafting Ichiro is that he suddenly "gets old." Could he have another few years in the tank? Of course. There simply is more of a question mark because of his age.
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