While some players fail to live up to their draft day hype, others completely outperform where they were selected. In some cases, the best options are never selected at all.
Each year we seem to have a player come out of nowhere to produce better than average numbers. How fantasy owners treat them next year is always the ultimate question in cases such as these.
Oftentimes, these players become overdrafted very quickly. Others will have owners waiting to see if they can do it again.
Here are a few that should leave us scratching our heads after stellar seasons.
Jose Bautista
There would be no way to discuss this list rationally without mentioning Bautista. He was the only player in baseball to crack 50 home runs this year. He does this after not hitting more than 16 in any single season in his career. Color me skeptical that this can happen again. Bautista had an amazing year, and the fact that he was able to do it for owners after being undrafted is more than exceptional.
The more underrated stat in this is the fact that he drew 100 walks on top of it. Is it possible that at 30 years old he is just really getting it? Of course anything is possible. The likelihood of this type of season being replicated, though, has to be remote.
Driving in nearly twice as many runs as ever while hitting three times as many home runs seems like a stretch. Overreacting to it in any draft next season will cause more heartache than elation. Fantasy owners will have to draft him too early to get adequate return on the investment.
Delmon Young
More of a pleasant surprise than anything else. Young was not necessarily expected to produce the 21-home run season that he did, nor should he have hit .298. Owners, though, love getting that type of value late in a draft. This was the type of skill that was seen during his one full season in Tampa.
At just 25 years old, Young has a possibility to do this with much more frequency over the next five years. Though he had not produced better than 15 home runs in any season prior to this, his jump is not out of the ordinary. His .298 average falls within the norms of his last several seasons as well.
Looking into 2011, a 20-home run outfielder is a dime a dozen, but one that can hit .300 and drive in 100 runs is certainly worth looking at in the middle rounds of a draft. Be careful expecting him to ramp up faster than this, and be satisfied with further steady production at this level.
Casey McGehee
One of McGehee's greatest values will be eliminated next season, as he will lose his middle infield eligibility. McGehee played third base in all but three of his appearances this season, meaning that fantasy owners will have to pencil him in there next season in order to gain his production.
The question has to be asked as to if he can hang with the big boys at that level. This season, he finished ninth in home runs, fourth in RBI, and 15th in runs scored at the position this year. His numbers, overall, were better than or equal to Evan Longoria in each of those categories with the exception of runs. McGehee hit only nine points worse, but he did not have the added benefit of 15 steals.
Still, the value at the draft choice needs to be considered there. Can McGehee do it again? He had hit .301 with 16 home runs in 116 games in 2009, so the scale out would have produced similar results over the same number of games in each of these two years.
Should the Brewers continue with him at third base, McGehee certainly deserves greater consideration than he received this year. He may not be elite, but the numbers suggest that he will be a valuable member of any fantasy roster as another middle-round selection.
Alex Gonzalez
Raise your hand if you believe this is a 20-home run shortstop. No one? Good. Gonzalez had not hit this many home runs since hitting 23 in 2004 with Florida. He has only hit more than 10 in five of his 12 seasons in the majors. After hitting 16 home runs in his first 85 games, he hit just six in his next 71 while hitting only .240 after the trade to Atlanta. This was also the first time that he had cracked 80 RBI in a season in his career.
Look, I firmly believe that he is capable of putting together some power numbers. In fact, 12 home runs next season with 55 RBI would not be out of the ordinary. Expecting him to both stay healthy and duplicate this production level is a dangerous game.
As shortstops go, there is risk in this type of selection. Let someone else take this gamble in your league, as there are other shortstops that can be found to give the production you are after.
Adrian Beltre
Overall, it is not that I doubt the numbers that he can produce, but the average he used to produce them with. Beltre has largely been a hitter that will pound out 25 home runs and 95 RBI for much of his career. While he was completely off that pace in 2009, he had achieved roughly those numbers from 2006 through 2008.
Only twice, though, had he better than .290—once in 2000 with the Dodgers and once in 2004. That 2004 season he hit 48 home runs, drove in 121 runs, and hit .334.
Being a free agent, some of his value is going to be determined by where he plays. Not a significant portion, but certainly some.
Beltre should be considered a .290/25/90 player at third base, and that is certainly worthy of being drafted, but certainly only at the right time. Beltre runs the risk of being drafted too early because of the production that we saw this year, and he is not likely to fully replicate these totals. A starter, yes. An anchor, no.
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