In articles such as this, many websites give readers a list of the best overall prospects at a given position, but the intention here is to focus on those prospects who are most likely to provide a significant fantasy impact during the 2011 season; thus, a guy like Red Sox SS prospect Jose Iglesias—who is blocked at the big league level by Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie—is not on my list.
Here is my list of the five shortstop prospects who will likely have the most impact at the major league level in 2011:
1. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN
2010 performance: .346, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 22 SB, 121 R (for the Chiba Lotte Marines, Nippon Professional Baseball)
Nishioka, 26, was the premier offensive player made available through Japan’s (outdated) posting system last year. The Twins bid $5.3 million for the right to negotiate with him, and then signed him to a three-year, $9 million contract. The switch-hitter is coming off a career-year. He won the NPB batting title with a .346 average, collecting 206 hits in 144 games (the highest hit total since OF Ichiro Suzuki in 1994).
With that said, his success in the United States is anything but assured. As Aaron Gleeman pointed out, he entered last season as a career .280 hitter (batting just .260 in ’09). His performance last year was fueled by a .395 BABIP, a number that is not sustainable over the long term...therefore, he is unlikely to repeat such a performance. “Yoshi” has averaged 28 stolen bases over his last seven seasons of play.
Nishioka will likely play both second base and shortstop for the Twins, though it is very possible he will eventually settle in at second base. Ultimately, the determining factor as to where he’ll end up over the long term is the performance of shortstop Alexi Casilla.
2. Zack Cozart, CIN
2010 performance: .255, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 30 SB, 91 R (at Triple-A Louisville)
There were pundits who felt Cozart might be able to break camp with the Reds in March, but that was before the front office signed free agent Edgar Renteria two weeks ago. So for now it looks like he will probably return to Louisville in an effort to improve on his 107-40 strikeout-to-walk ratio from last year.
But with Paul Janish (a career .226 hitter) and Renteria as the only impediments to his promotion to Cincinnati, it seems very likely he could make his Reds debut during the second half of the season.
Janish has a good glove, but he has registered a lowly .634 OPS over parts of three seasons with the Reds. Cozart has some power, plus he has excellent range, a good glove and a cannon for an arm. For these reasons, it’s plausible he could end up with the Reds anytime after July 1st. As with Grant Green, below, his prospects for a 2011 debut are intertwined with the team’s success.
3. Grant Green, OAK
2010 performance: .318, 20 HR, 87 RBI, 9 SB, 107 R (at Single-A Midland)
Green has drawn comparisons to Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki at the early stage of his professional career, but before fantasy fans get too excited they need to remember he put up last year’s gaudy numbers in the hitter-friendly California League.
The Athletics have SS Cliff Pennington (who hit .250 last year) and utilityman Adam Rosales (a career .241 hitter) ahead of Green on the depth chart, so the road to Oakland may not be lengthy. But, Green will have to improve on his 117-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio to force the door open at the big league level.
Still, the A’s are desperate for offense and could be tempted by Green’s power potential if they have fallen out of the division race in the second half of the season. My gut instinct is that he’ll be overmatched in The Show should he get promoted, so caveat emptor!
4. Nick Franklin, SEA
2010 performance: .283, 23 HR, 65 RBI, 25 SB, 92 R (combined stats at High-A and Double-A, primarily at High-A Clinton)
Franklin didn’t get a lot of respect as a prospect last winter. Baseball America listed him among the team’s Top 10 Prospects because of his defense, not his offense. But he was one of only three players to forge a 20-20 season in the minors last year, and he did for Clinton in the Midwest League.
He is not quite two years removed from being chosen in the first year player draft, but scouts are already saying that he looks like he will develop considerably more power than originally thought. He could reach the majors in 2011—if only because Josh Wilson is all that stands between him and The Show.
5. Andrew Cumberland, Padres
2010 performance: .350, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 21 SB, 68 R (combined stats at High-A and Double-A)
Cumberland doesn’t come with the hype of the other guys on this list, but he grabbed scouts' attention by hitting .365 with 20 SBs for Class-A Lake Elsinore (but, once again, they’re stats that were accumulated in the heavy-hitting California League and are thus subject to scrutiny).
Considering the Padres do not have an answer at the position right now, it’s possible he will compete for a job on the Opening Day roster during spring training.
More likely, he’ll return to Double-A for additional seasoning, and if he has a solid first half he could be promoted to San Diego after the All-Star break.
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