We all know that luck has a lot to do with the success or failure of some pitchers. Let’s take a look at the five pitchers who qualified for the ERA title in 2010 who posted the worst BABIP and analyze their chances of a rebound in 2011:
James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays: .341 BABIP
Here is a player that has both his supporters and detractors. Those who want to believe Shields will be able to have a renaissance campaign in 2011 point towards his BABIP, his high HR/9 (1.50), his low strand rate (68.4 percent) and his improving strikeout rate (career high 8.28 in ’10).
Those who want to believe he is destined to struggle again look at his second straight poor line-drive rate (20.5 percent in ’09; 20.3 percent in ’10) and call his strikeout rate unrepeatable, among other things.
The fact of the matter is that he will likely come in somewhere in the middle. Yes, he calls one of the toughest divisions home, but you have to expect both the BABIP and strand rate to improve in ’11. Even if the strikeout rate does regress back down to his prior rates, his control is way too good to think he’s capable of anything but a solid WHIP (2.00 career BB/9).
He pitches over 200 innings every single season and is well worth the gamble in my opinion. Even if he doesn’t fully turn things back around, he will likely post an ERA between 3.90-4.20 to go along with a WHIP around 1.26-1.30, if not significantly better.
Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins: .331 BABIP
Really? Liriano posted a 3.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, yet he suffered from poor luck?!?! Scary, huh?
Obviously Liriano’s value is not dependent on any improved luck. What matters the most is that he can replicate his renewed control (2.72 BB/9) and strikeout rate (9.44 K/9).
If he can do that, everything else will fall into place.
Jason Hammel, Colorado Rockies: .328 BABIP
He has the potential to be one of the better under-the-radar option; it is just a matter of him putting everything together. While his strikeout rate isn’t overly impressive (7.14 K/9 in ’10), it is more than enough considering his other skills. He brings solid control, with a 2.14 BB/9 in ’09 and a 2.38 BB/9 in ’10. He also brings a good groundball rate, with a career mark of 45.4 percent.
It’s not quite the perfect triple threat, but it’s certainly close enough if he had luck on his side. Aside from the poor BABIP, he also suffered from a 68.6 percent strand rate. Those two numbers helped contribute to a 4.81 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Clearly, he has the make-up to be significantly better than that.
Your leaguemates will probably ignore him based on the poor numbers. Don’t make the same mistake, as a lot of it is due to poor luck and nothing more. We’ll take a much closer look at him in the near future.
Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh Pirates: .327 BABIP
In the past five years Maholm has posted an ERA better than 4.44 just once (3.71 in 2008). Do we really think that luck has anything to do with his struggles? The fact of the matter is that Maholm is a subpar fantasy option and one that should be avoided in all formats.
Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox: .325 BABIP
It’s not normal that Floyd is discussed in the luck department. Generally when we discuss Floyd it is about his poor start to the season, which he always manages to turn around.
We all know the general rule with Floyd is to sit him in April (or buy him low), then reap the benefits after that. Of course, 2010 was slightly different (.406 BABIP, 64.4 percent strand rate in September helped to a 6.23 ERA), but don’t let one year deter you. He’s a solid option in all formats.
What are your thoughts of these pitchers? Who is worth buying in 2011? Who would you ignore?
**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****
Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:
- Barmes, Clint
- Buchholz, Clay
- Butler, Billy
- Choo, Shin-Soo
- Ethier, Andre
- Freese, David
- Hudson, Tim
- Hughes, Phil
- Jaso, John
- Johnson, Chris
- Uggla, Dan
- Morrow, Brandon
- Reyes, Jose
- Rios, Alex
- Sanchez, Gaby
- Stanton, Mike
- Suzuki, Kurt
- Wieters, Matt
- Willingham, Josh
- Young, Michael
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