There's no doubt that we're all getting excited for the actual baseball season to get under way. Fantasy leagues are forming, box scores are being watched, and performances are being analyzed about every different way possible.
The problem in doing this work during the spring is that often times there is very little correlation between spring observations and regular season behavior.
Jason Collette has put together work that suggests only about half the time is there any definitive relationship between what a player does now and what they will do in the regular season.
In reality, that makes sense. Think about what we witness from game to game.
Most starting pitchers are going no more than three innings at this point. For the most part, that's about once through the lineup. No pitcher is making real adjustments to specific hitters, and batters aren't working off the type of stuff a pitcher has on that given day. There isn't enough time to develop the relationship.
Pitchers are spending more time refining mechanics and working on pitches than they are focusing on statistics. Jon Lester has spent a majority of his spring sessions developing his changeup and not pitching off his fastball. What does that mean? More inconsistencies in his numbers. Just further proof that numbers are hard to rely on at this point.
The WBC is teaching us key pieces as well. Hitters get their timing from working off fastballs. Regardless as to if the pitch is 90 or 98 mph, a hitter looks to time fastballs and then re-develop the mechanics to work to off-speed pitches. Most of the home runs hit by the United States squad have come on fastballs, including all three against Canada.
Venezuela and other Latin American countries are finding success in their pitching because many members of the squads played winter ball. By doing so, their arms are further along than many other pitchers. That allows them to work with off-speed pitching and keep rusty hitters off balance more effectively.
All this information comes down to the fact that we just don't know what will happen once the first real pitch is thrown in April.
The key is understanding what we can use the month of March for.
Injury Developments
This is likely the biggest piece to the puzzle, and it gives fantasy owners the most insight to the workings of the major league talent.
Players that miss games, have MRIs, or are being more monitored require immediate attention. It's why the news of Johan Santana was taken as seriously as it was by fantasy owners. Santana is considered a high-round pick. When an elbow injury is discussed with regards to someone with that kind of fantasy value, writers write about it and people pay attention.
We've seen other players miss some time early on. While there are injuries that don't merit the attention, certain types of problems can linger longer than others. When we draft speed, hearing about groin injuries is an issue.
Happening now is better than happening in a month, but strains and pulls have a tendency to stick with a player and seem to have a greater chance of recurrence.
Grady Sizemore and Vernon Wells are working through groin and hamstring injuries now. Wells still hasn't seen any real spring action, and Sizemore is being worked back in slowly so as not to re-aggravate the injury.
In pitching, we don't like to hear about shoulders and elbows. The torque (physics reference) on the body needed and required to throw some pitches puts strain on every part of the body. Seeing early breakdowns can signal something larger later in the year.
The big one this week was Ervin Santana. He will start the season on the DL, and the injury seems more severe than anyone is letting on.
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Surgery Recovery
This one can be a little difficult to measure, but it's equally as important and does deviate from an actual injury occurrence that would impact draft position. Here, we're dealing with players that were hurt at the end of last season and required some type of recovery time prior to spring training.
More often than not, we're dealing with pitching, but the abundance of knee and hip problems has us evaluating the offensive side to the equation as well. While the actual production may not play into our decisions, we can measure how often a player takes the field and the impressions the team management has by offseason moves.
I'm most familiar with the Boston situation, so we'll use that for an example. David Ortiz struggled with a wrist injury, and Mike Lowell needed to be shut down at the end of the season with a labrum tear (sound familiar?). The Red Sox did make a move for Mark Teixeira, but so did every team with an open checkbook.
What's telling is that Boston did not backfill by looking at Adam Dunn or any other power hitter by signing or trade. This should lead people to believe that the front office thinks Ortiz and Lowell will be at least moderately productive. Owners should draft them accordingly.
We'll learn more as the spring goes along. Do Lowell and Chase Utley return to their fielding positions? Obviously, this is another indication of health. Even Joe Mauer's ADP needs to be impacted by the fact he can't take the field yet, as my friends at FakeBaseball point out.
From the pitching side, we can learn just by seeing if the pitcher is on the mound. In general, we'll also get indications the following day as to if there was any lingering soreness or problems that resulted from a session. When monitoring Jason Schmidt or Chris Carpenter, we should be looking to these points as guidelines.
Position Battles
Another key aspect to the spring is the position battles that ensue. Our friends at CrookedPitch.com recommend avoiding early drafts for a variety of reasons, but this certainly ranks as one of them. Owners need to be certain that the names they call will be relevant.
In San Francisco, we're worried about the second base job, as well as where a highly touted rookie will end up getting the bulk of his playing time. We're looking at closers jobs in Chicago, Atlanta, and others. Texas will need to decide which young catcher will get the nod.
The Red Sox are looking for the shortstop that will take the lead. Rotations are being rounded out in multiple clubs, and even if it's just AL or NL-only owners concerned, those names matter.
The 2009 season can be seen as slightly different in that we could see players that aren't yet signed with a say in how these battles are settled. Ivan Rodriguez may determine who catches for a given team by his play for Puerto Rico in the WBC.
While we may de-value many of these players in initial rankings, the possibility exists for them to make noise during spring training and turn some heads. Again, the production isn't necessarily our biggest concern as much as where we see the playing time being divided.
We can also characterize players needing to reassert their own personal worth to a team in the position battles category, mainly because they either earn a spot or end up fantasy waste.
After spending the majority of this piece discussing how owners should avoid putting stock in spring training numbers, this is the one time where they have a moderate degree of relevance. In this category, you can understand the players we're talking about.
Two come immediately to mind: Andruw Jones and Jeff Francoeur. In this case, we're trying to establish if an offseason has done these players any good. Are they going to even try to perform? Are they still struggling?
It can be a short list, but this is one that owners hoping for a recovery from a player need to pay attention to, and it's the only time to look at a spring batting average or strikeout ratio.
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