1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
.327 average, 47 homers, 135 RBI, 124 runs
What else can be said about this guy? He is the picture of consistency. In his nine years in the league he has hit at least .314 in every season, he has hit at least 32 homers each year, driven in 103 runs or more throughout his career, and scored 100 runs or more in every year but one...when he scored 99 runs.
Pujols should be the No. 1 overall pick in every league, no matter the format (OK, not in AL-only leagues, but you get the point). He does it all, and is the perfect guy to lead your team.
If there was one thing bad to say about him, it is that he plays the deepest position in fantasy baseball, and you can get solid production from other players at the position, but no one does it like Albert.
2. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
.299 average, 46 homers, 141 RBI, 103 runs
There was some concern after 2008 that Prince wasn’t for real when he hit “only” 34 jacks a year after connecting for 50. Well, Fielder not only got back on track with 46 homers, but also had a career high in batting average with .299.
At 5’11” and 268 pounds, Prince is just a big boy who will always be a big power hitter and will consistently hit over 40 homers his entire career.
I don’t know if you can expect the average to be that close to .300, but he should be able to keep it in the .280s.
His 141 RBI led the majors last season, and you can expect Fielder to continue to be one of the best producers in fantasy baseball. He should be a mid-first round selection, beginning of the second, at the absolute latest.
3. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
.279 average, 45 homers, 141 RBI, 105 runs
One of the most prolific power hitters of our generation, Howard has had 45 homers or more for four straight seasons and you have never heard a whisper of steroids around him.
He is just a monster who is able to muscle the ball out of the park on what would be routine pop flies for lesser players. The only thing that keeps him from the No. 2 spot in this list is his fluctuating batting average.
It was as low as .251 in 2008, and that is a small concern with Howard. So outside of his strikeouts, Howard is an absolute stud and should definitely be a first-round pick in any draft.
You might want to add someone later on your team to offset what might be a bit of a lower batting average, but he is one step towards owning the power categories.
4. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
.292 average, 39 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs
If you can survive April and most of May without looking for the nearest bridge, you can be a happy Teixeria owner. The guy is notorious for starting out slow, but by the end of the season the numbers are always there.
Since 2004, he has hit at least .280 in every season with 30+ home runs and at least 105 RBI. He hit just .200 last April, so please be aware that if you pick Tex, he will hurt you early on. But when the chips are down later in the year, he can absolutely carry your team.
That tiny little right field fence in Yankee Stadium will only help him continue to pour on the numbers, and Tex will likely be a late first-round pick and live up to that billing. Draft him with confidence if you own the eighth pick or later.
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
.324 average, 34 homers, 103 RBI, 96 runs
Let’s just get this out in the open right off the bat: I really don’t care about his drinking problem; it doesn’t phase my thoughts about him. The guy can just plain hit, and he has been doing it a long time.
He has hit at least .320 in four of the last five years. In five of the last six years he has had at least 30 homers, and he hasn’t had less than 100 RBI since his rookie campaign in which he only played 80+ games.
Cabrera is automatic production in every category except for stolen bases. For some reason he never really excites me, but he is the prototypical guy that I shoot for—consistent and durable.
Consider Cabrera an excellent late first rounder or even better if he slips into round two, which rarely happens.
6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
.274 average, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 85 runs (135 games)
A former AL MVP, Morneau had a chance at the award again in 2009 before a back injury ended his season early. Even with missing that time, he was still able to hit 30 homers for the third time in six years and drove in 100 runs for the fourth straight season.
He doesn’t seem to be in the discussion with the elite first basemen, and I am not sure why. He is a great value as he generally goes a couple of rounds later than the guys above with fairly comparable production.
If you wait through the first few rounds for your first baseman, definitely keep an eye out for Morneau in the third or fourth round. He will give you at worst second-round output.
7. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
.322 average, 25 homers, 84 RBI, 82 runs (131 games)
Man Crush Alert! In his second full season, Votto outperformed his rookie season with a batting average jump and similar power numbers, despite missing 30 games.
At 26 years old, he is just coming into his prime, and I expect his power numbers to take a nice jump this year—he should hit 30+ homers in 2010.
He has a big advantage playing his home games at the Great American Small Park, and he has good hitters surrounding him.
For those who like him as much as I do, he is a great guy to pick in the second or third round at first base, while many others are picking this position in the first round.
You should get similar production from Votto as some of those players that go 10-15 picks earlier.
8. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
.277 average, 40 homers, 99 RBI, 90 runs
Gonzalez got off to an amazing start in 2009 before pitchers finally figured out that there wasn’t anyone else in the Pads lineup that they had to worry about pitching to, and Adrian got walked an awful lot more.
Gonzalez is going to hit home runs, there is no doubt about that, it is just a matter of how many times he will be walked. The X Factor with Gonzalez this year is the fact that he might be traded at the deadline to a big-time contender like the Red Sox.
Not only would he get out of cavernous PetCo Park, but he would go to a batting lineup where pitchers would not be able to pitch around him and then the numbers could explode.
It is a bit of a risk, but even if he stays in San Diego, he is a lock to hit 30-35 homers as long as he stays healthy.
9. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
.305 average, 27 homers, 94 RBI, 7 steals, 99 runs (136 games)
Youk is a solid fantasy player but seems to drop a few rounds every year despite good production. He does tend to get nicked up every year, as he has never played more than 147 games in a season, but he never misses significant time.
He is a nice guy to have help you out with your batting average, but you will have try to find a bump in home runs from another position if you draft Youkilis, as most guys above him on this list will hit more than him.
If you make some good choices at other positions, you can win with Youk at first base, but I would like a little bit of a stronger starter at the position.
10. Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals
.267 average, 38 homers, 106 RBI, 81 runs
So, while Youkilis might leave you with a bit of a deficiency in the power department at first base, if you take Adam Dunn, you will be forced to have a couple of players at other positions that will counteract his lower batting average.
I know, I know, he hit nearly .270 last season, but previously in his career he was rarely anywhere near that mark.
Dunn is an absolute lock for home run production, and he has value for that. He is a very low-tier starting first baseman who is also outfield-eligible.
11. Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
.301 average, 21 homers, 93 RBI, 78 runs
This is going to be a guy that I am going to talk about a lot this season. Butler certainly broke on the scene last season with his strong second half, but I think you are going to see that kind of production from him all season long.
The guy was a hitting machine in the minor leagues and it was just a matter of time before that translated to the majors. Butler was a career .336 hitter in the minor leagues, and in 2007 he hit 13 homers in just 57 games at AAA.
He will turn 24 just as the season starts and is just getting ready to enter his prime. I think I have him ranked higher than other people, but he is a guy that I really believe in.
12. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
.306 average, 34 homers, 108 RBI, 86 runs
Morales was a fantastic minor league hitter who struggled (like many Angels prospects) in his first couple of calls to the big leagues. He hits for a good average and also showed some pretty good power.
He was similar to Butler while on the farm, but I expect him to not do as well in the power department this season compared to 2009.
Morales will turn that magical age of 27 in June, but I personally don’t put a lot of stock in that theory.
He is a quality major league player, but I would feel better with Morales at my corner infield or utility position than as a starting first baseman. He still should surpass 25 home runs and will likely hit .285 to .290.
13. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays
.227 average, 39 homers, 100 RBI, 91 runs (135 games)
I like to describe Carlos Pena as a poor man’s Adam Dunn. And when I say poor, I am talking about his batting average.
In six of the last eight seasons Pena has hit south of .250. Sure, Dunn isn’t exactly Tony Gwynn with the batting average, but Pena is worse.
Like Dunn, Pena is nearly automatic for 35+ homers, although he does tend to miss 20-30 games a season.
He could be a starting first baseman, but you are much better off with him as your second first baseman and rely on him as a power source at corner or utility.
14. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
.306 average, 35 homers, 111 RBI, 91 runs (141 games)
I have never been a big fan of Derrek Lee, as I felt he was completely overrated since his huge 2005 season. He had never gotten anywhere near those gaudy numbers since, although 2009 was pretty close.
Lee has only hit over .300 three times in his 14 year career, so I am not sure that he will do that again, and I think you are more apt to get 26-28 home runs than you are the 35 he hit last season.
Lee is a guy that I stay away from, but if you are thinking of drafting him, please don’t pencil him in as your starter at first base.
15. Adam LaRoche, Arizona Diamondbacks
.277 average, 25 homers, 83 RBI, 78 runs
At some point last year, it dawned on me that Adam LaRoche is a pretty solid fantasy player who rarely gets the respect that he deserves.
Now, I’m not trying to say the guy is Albert Pujols or anything, but those of you who have been reading my stuff for any length of time know that I like consistency.
Well, LaRoche has hit 25 or more home runs in three of the last four seasons, and his batting average has been very respectable, between .270-.285.
He is a perfect backup to your first baseman as he is more than adequate at four of the five traditional fantasy hitting categories and can keep you afloat in case of injury or is a great utility player.
He seems to be forgotten during drafts, but in the late middle rounds LaRoche is a guy to think about.
16. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
.277 average, 28 homers, 88 RBI, 75 runs
Another guy that no one ever seems to want but puts up respectable numbers is Konerko. He did have a down 2008, but bounced back nicely in 2009 with another solid campaign.
His days of hitting 40+ homers are obviously over, and at age 34 he is on the back side of his career, but Konerko will still be a productive player.
With guys like Juan Pierre, Gordon Beckham, and likely Alex Rios hitting in front of him, there should be plenty of opportunities for Konerko to drive in runs, and I expect him to put up similar numbers in 2010 as he did last year.
He is definitely worth a pick in some of the later rounds as a power supply that won’t kill your batting average.
17. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
.274 average, 25 homers, 80 RBI, 73 runs, 7 steals (136 games)
Berkman used to be one of the more underappreciated sluggers in all of baseball as he regularly went for 40/120 with a nice batting average. However, his home run total has dropped for four straight seasons and his batting average has been jumping all over the place.
He still won’t hurt you in any specific category, but you have to understand that the expectations for Berkman have to change. He is now at best a corner infielder and should no longer be considered a starting first baseman for your fantasy team.
The Big Puma generally has a good eye at the plate, but the Astros offense might not provide too many base runners for him to drive in.
18. Chris Davis, Texas Rangers
.238 average, 21 homers, 59 RBI, 48 runs
Davis was one of the darlings of fantasy drafts last season, but the fantasy love quickly turned to hate when he struck out nearly twice as much as he got a hit.
Now the question is do you write him off after one disappointing season when you were thinking this time last year that 40 home runs was a possibility.
He did finish strong with four home runs and 16 RBI with a .290 batting average in the month of September, so of course the answer is no, you shouldn’t give up on him. Should you draft him where you did last year? Clearly not.
Davis has already shown power at the major league level and if he ever figures out how to stop swinging at every pitch he could be a fantasy stud. You can probably get him fairly late in drafts at this point.
19. Jake Fox, Oakland Athletics
.259 average, 11 homers, 44 RBI, 23 runs (82 games)
He might not get the start at first base right away, but trust me, Daric Barton is not a major league first baseman; he just doesn’t hit enough. The A’s didn’t exactly trade much away to get Fox, but he can be a dynamic power hitter and all he needs is a chance.
Fox’s numbers with the Cubs in 2009 are nice, not eye-popping, but nice. However, Chicago sat him on the bench for stretches, and then put him in, back to the bench, you get the picture.
Now that it appears that Fox will have an everyday gig he should be a beast. In the 41 games he spent at AAA last year, Fox hit .409 (yes, that is right, .409) with 17 homers and 53 RBI.
Oakland’s stadium isn’t exactly a hitter’s best friend, but Fox is a big time bat and should have no problem hitting 20 jacks in 2010.
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers
.281 average, 13 homers, 90 RBI, 73 runs
If Loney played a different position, I would likely have more love for him, but since he plays first base, I find him borderline useless.
Sure, his numbers aren’t bad; I like to get 90 RBI from players. However, if you are going to be a first baseman you are going to have to hit more than 13 home runs, and it doesn’t appear to me that Loney will ever be any sort of power hitter.
Maybe I could get past the low home run total if you had a dynamite average, but if you are only going to hit 13 home runs, you better hit way better than .281.
In fact, to make him fantasy relevant, I would want Loney to bat at least .320.
He isn’t a bad guy to have just in case something happens to your starter in the short term, but he certainly isn’t someone I would want to peg much of my championship hopes on.
21. Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
.325 average, 15 homers, 86 RBI, 79 runs
After enduring a 2008 season in which he missed half of the year, Helton bounced back nicely in 2009, and while his power has pretty much completely evaporated, he is still capable of putting up a solid batting average and a good number of RBI.
He will turn 37 years old in August, so please don’t be fooled into thinking that he isn’t on the wrong end of his career. With the Rockies holding on to Jason Giambi, it seems that Helton will be given more time off in 2010 than in previous seasons.
He should be able to help you out in the batting average category, but should offer little else in the others. He is a decent flier at the end of the draft, but don’t get sucked into the solid season he had last year; he could fall off the map at any time.
22. Garrett Atkins, Baltimore Orioles
.226 average, 9 homers, 48 RBI, 37 runs (126 games)
Just a couple of years ago, Atkins was an All-Star and probably a third or fourth-round fantasy pick. Coming into this season, I would say there is a decent chance that Atkins won’t even be drafted.
I just don't believe a guy who is 28 years old with his history can just completely lose his ability to hit a baseball. And I know that Atkins is leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field, but apparently it wasn’t helping him all that much.
I’m not expecting him to get back to the days when he nearly hit 30 home runs and drove in 120 runs, but I don’t think it is crazy for him to get back to the 18-21 homer range and perhaps 75-80 RBI.
I wouldn’t put too much stock in him, but I definitely expect a bounce back season.
23. Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giants
.241 average, 15 homers, 85 RBI, 59 runs
Another guy whose numbers took a total nosedive in 2009, Huff’s average dropped over 60 points, and he had fewer than half the home runs he had in 2008.
He now moves to the National League, but away from Camden Yards and to Pac Bell Park, which isn’t exactly the most hitting-friendly stadium in the National League.
Huff isn’t ancient at 33 years old, but I would say it is safe to say that his best days are behind him.
I do expect him to have a better season in 2010, but not so much that he is worth anything more than insurance on your roster.
24. Russell Branyan, Cleveland Indians
.251 average, 31 homers, 76 RBI, 64 runs (116 games)
One of the bigger surprises of the 2009 season, Branyan was a power machine for most of the season, even though his RBI and average weren’t where you would like it to be.
He goes back home to the Indians where he broke into the majors in 1998. Branyan crushed career highs in home runs and in RBI, and I just can’t see him repeating his stats from last year.
He missed the last month of the year with a herniated disc in his back, and that concerns me more when a guy is 34 years old. He has always shown pretty decent power as well as a total lack of plate discipline.
If he is healthy, Branyan could help you out in the home run department, but don’t expect him to do much more for you than that.
Unless you are sliding him into your utility spot or as injury insurance you are putting too much faith in him.
25. Mike Jacobs, New York Mets
.228 average, 19 homers, 61 RBI, 46 runs (128 games)
Another player back with the team in which he came to the majors with, Jacobs has to be considered mostly a disappointment since he was traded away by the Mets after the 2005 season.
He did have one good statistical season in which he hit 32 homers, but he also hit .237 that season. That has been the story for Jacobs, when the power is there his average suffers.
When his average is better (which for him is .265ish), the power evaporates. I definitely think he will win the starting job over Daniel Murphy and even though he goes to spacious Citi Field, perhaps this is the year he puts it together.
However, like I always say, guys who are 30 years old or are approaching it don’t generally break out. Jacobs will turn 30 this October and is a late-round flier at best.
26. Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins
.238 average, 2 homers, 3 RBI, 2 runs (21 games)
The job is Sanchez to lose this year with the departure of Mike Jacobs to New York. Sanchez wasn’t given a chance to get his feet wet in the majors as he played in only 21 games.
If I had to compare Sanchez to a current major leaguer, I would call him James Loney with a little bit more power. I’m not saying that is the kind of player he is going to be in 2010, but when he matures into his major league career I think that is what you can expect.
Sanchez is a decent sleeper this year if he can hold off Logan Morrison for the job, but he isn’t going to be someone that is going to carry your team to the title.
If you have to draft him at all he is a late-round flier, but more likely he is someone that you don’t have to pick and can be someone you can keep an eye on during spring training.
27. Troy Glaus, Atlanta Braves
.270 average, 27 homers, 99 RBI, 69 runs (2008 stats)
Glaus has always been able to hit home runs throughout his career. In fact, he has never hit fewer than 25 homers in a season in which he has played at least 145 games.
Unfortunately, the problem has been his ability to stay healthy, and now that he is starting to get up there in age (he will turn 34 in August) those injuries take longer to come back from.
He has been dealing with foot and shoulder injuries the last two seasons, and the shoulder cost him most of 2009. He comes to Atlanta to play first base and as of now is fully healthy.
If he is able to continue to play he has a real shot at getting between 25 and 30 home runs and being a nice sleeper.
28. Jeff Clement, Pittsburgh Pirates
.256 average, 21 homers, 90 RBI, 81 runs (111 games at AAA)
This will be a big season for Clement as he attempts to fight off the Quadruple-A player tag. He has absolutely nothing more to prove in the minor leagues as he has torched AAA pitching for the past three seasons.
Unfortunately so far, it hasn’t translated to the majors yet except for very small bursts of excitement, followed by plenty of swinging and missing.
Clement obviously can hit, and fantasy players will hope that the transition to the National League as well as coming out from behind the plate to play first base, will perhaps help him finally find his hitting stroke in the big leagues.
This could be his last real shot to be successful, because after Pittsburgh, where do you go next? I can’t see you drafting Clement unless it is very late in your night, but he does have the potential to be a great hitter and could be one of the big finds of the season…or he could continue to disappoint.
29. Ryan Garko, Seattle Mariners
.268 average, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 39 runs
Garko’s first full season in the league he hit 21 homers, and the next year the power dwindled but he drove in 90 runs. His home runs have decreased for three straight seasons, as has his batting average.
He wasn’t playing full-time for the Giants after his trade from the Indians, and now it seems that he will be in another platoon situation with Casey Kotchman in Seattle.
Garko is clearly the better offensive player, so if he is able to wrestle the full-time job away, he could be a deep sleeper.
However, unless you are in a 16-20 team league, I wouldn’t think about picking Garko on draft day.
30. Lyle Overbay, Toronto Blue Jays
.265 average, 16 homers, 64 RBI, 57 runs (132 games)
Overbay has basically had one good solid fantasy season in his career. In 2006, Overbay hit 22 homers and drove in 92 runs and hit .312.
Since then, he has basically been irrelevant from a fantasy perspective, as he hasn’t hit over .270, more than 16 homers, or more than 69 RBI in any season.
He now faces some young competition in rookie Brett Wallace, who is in the wings, waiting for his chance to get to the bigs and play every day, so Overbay better play better.
He doesn’t help you in any one category, so he should be ignored on draft day.
31. Casey Kotchman, Seattle Mariners
.268 average, 7 homers, 48 RBI, 37 runs (126 games)
Kotchman just isn’t a fantasy worthy player, in my opinion. He has never hit over .300, his career high in home runs is 14, and he has never driven in 75 runs.
This was all while in a pretty potent offensive lineup in Anaheim, and now he goes to a team in Seattle that isn’t exactly made to score a ton of runs.
Kotchman will also be competing with Ryan Garko for playing time, so he better hope that the Mariners really value his defense, because that is his strong suit.
Kotchman isn’t even worth a second thought on draft day, so this is the last time that you should think about him in 2010.
32. Daniel Murphy, New York Mets
.266 average, 12 homers, 63 RBI, 60 runs
After he just couldn’t handle the outfield and Carlos Delgado went down with an injury, the Mets tried Murphy’s hand at first base. While he made some nice plays with the glove (and his fair share of errors), he didn’t ever find the stroke that you need to play first base in the majors.
He showed a little bit more power during his minor league career, and he is just about to turn 25, so he could eventually hit so more long balls.
However, playing in Citi Field, not to mention the Mets bringing back Mike Jacobs, doesn’t bode well for Murphy’s fantasy value. He is not a guy to consider on draft day.
33. Micah Hoffpauir, Chicago Cubs
.239 average, 10 homers, 35 RBI, 28 runs (105 games)
This is not an up and coming young prospect; Hoffpauir will be turning 30 years old during the season, but if he is ever given the chance, he has proven that he has pretty decent power in his bat.
He hit 25 home runs in just 71 AAA games in 2008, but he was unable to repeat that feat in 2009. Still, he was even able to flex his muscle in the majors with 10 dingers in just over 200 at-bats.
He is blocked by Derrek Lee at first and a handful of outfielders including Xavier Nady, but if you see him getting regular playing time, I feel that he will be someone worth picking up in fantasy leagues.
Hoffpauir isn’t someone that you are drafting, but if the circumstances fall right during the year, he could be a useful fantasy player.
34. Jason Giambi, Colorado Rockies
.201 average, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 43 runs (102 games)
Giambi’s return to Oakland didn’t even last an entire season before he ended up in Colorado and finished the season quite strong for the Rockies.
He returns to Coors Field albeit in a reserve role to Todd Helton so his fantasy value is completely tied to Helton’s health.
The good news is that Helton has a long history of injury problems so there is a chance that Giambi could see significant playing time.
However, you have to consider him a second stringer in the National League which means no DH, so unless you see Todd Helton hit the DH, Giambi has no fantasy value.
35. Daric Barton, Oakland Athletics
.269 average, 3 homers, 24 RBI, 31 runs
Barton burst on the scene at the end of September 2007 when he was with the A’s for just the final three weeks of the season but hit over .400 and drove in eight runs in just 18 games.
He came to Oakland in the trade that sent Mark Mulder to St. Louis, and everyone thought that Billy Beane had pulled another great trade (which he did, A’s got Dan Haren in that deal).
Barton looked completely lost the next season when he managed to hit just .226 with just nine home runs over nearly the entire season. He battled injuries last season and now it seems like he may have lost his chance.
He has a shot at starting out of spring training, but my money is on Jake Fox, not to mention that the A’s also have a great prospect in Chris Carter.
I wouldn’t touch Barton with my last pick on Draft Day as he just doesn’t bring anything to the table.
You can email me anytime at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com . I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
And please don't forget to check out the newly redesigned Fighting Chance Fantasy and get involved with all of the news and interaction that is offered there.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments