1. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
.320 average, 32 homers, 114 RBI, 20 steals, 113 runs
Braun has been a stud pretty much since the day he stepped on the diamond in the major leagues and he has officially ascended to the top of the fantasy outfield. He pretty much does it all and helps you across the board. He gives you average, power, speed, and scores a great number of runs.
At just 26 years old he is the stuff a fantasy first round pick is made of, and is nearly a guarantee for great production and should be selected in the first five or six picks.
2. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
.297 average, 26 homers, 101 RBI, 34 steals, 97 runs
I’ve seen him number one in many outfield rankings and I can’t say that I blame those who put them there.
Kemp is the kind of fantasy player that you dream about. Twenty-five years old, capable of going 35/35 with a .300 average in a powerful lineup, there’s nothing not to like.
I know there is some concern because Joe Torre moved Kemp all around the batting order last year, but that just makes his stats even more impressive, and I really can’t see that happening again in 2010.
Kemp should be drafted in the first five to ten picks in the first round.
3. Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals
.313 average, 24 homers, 109 RBI, 14 steals, 94 runs
It was a strange season for Holliday as he was totally dissed to start the year when he went to Oakland in the offseason and people were writing him off as they didn’t expect him to hit outside of Coors. Truth is, it wasn’t just that he was out of Colorado, more than he went to the Grand Canyon of a stadium out in Oakland.
Once he got out of there and into the friendly confines of Busch Stadium (and hitting along side Pujols), Holliday mashed 16 of his 24 homers in the 71 games after the All-Star Break. A full year in St. Louis should mean that Holliday will be a 30-35 homer guy again, and he has always hit for a good average and brought you double digit steals.
He isn’t the number one guy at the position anymore, but he is definitely a player that qualifies being your best outfielder and likely selected in the first two rounds of the draft.
5. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
.305 average, 15 homers, 68 RBI, 51 steals, 96 runs
He had a down year in 2008, but if you throw that one out he has stolen 50+ bases in five of the other six seasons and hit over .300 in three different years. Crawford isn’t a huge power guy by any stretch, but he at least gives you 10-15 home runs and 70-80 RBI as well.
If you draft Crawford you really don’t need much more at the position to really own the steal category, but you also might need to find power at a less than traditional position.
One last factor that makes me believe big things are in store for Crawford is that his contract is over after 2010 and all signs point to him testing free agency. If he can top the 60 steals he had last year, he could really be in for a big payday.
Look for Crawford to lead the AL in stolen bases, hit over .300, and likely get to about 15 home runs.
5. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
.248 average, 18 homers, 64 RBI, 13 steals, 73 runs (101 games)
Sizemore really seems to be discounted heading into this season, but people fail to take into account that his elbow nearly fell off (ok, an exaggeration) in 2009 and he played through pain for quite a while before he shut it down.
Sizemore was never a great batting average guy, but he’s a 25-30 homer candidate and should also steal 30+ bags. I can see him having a nice bounce back season and will be a steal in the second or third round.
You’ll need someone to counteract his average, but you can’t go wrong with Sizemore in your outfield, even with how bad the Indians will be.
6. Justin Upton, Arizona Diamondbacks
.300 average, 26 homers, 80 RBI, 20 steals, 84 runs
A .300 average and a 20/20 season at just 21 years old? I think the only question is how high the ceiling is for Justin Upton.
It is a good question because I don’t know exactly how good he can be yet. Is 40/40 a possibility?
That might be a bit of a stretch, but I would say that 30/30 is all but a guarantee. Upton is one of the five best players to own in a dynasty league despite the fact that he plays a position that is perceived to be deep. If I had to say something bad (which I don’t want to do), you would like to see him drive in a few more runs, but I expect that number to increase in 2010 as well.
There is nothing this kid can’t do, and he should last no later than the third round this year and could be a first rounder in 2011.
7. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox
.301 average, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 74 steals, 94 runs
I always just have a little trouble ranking “steals only” guys too high up when I am evaluating players because I rarely take them when they are generally drafted.
He made a sweet jump from a .280 average all the way up to .301 and from 50 to 70 steals, but I just can’t see taking him in the first three or four rounds. The Red Sox don’t tend to run a whole lot outside of Ellsbury and their offense seems to have taken a slight step back without a major acquisition in 2010.
I don’t know what it is, but I just don’t see him repeating his 2009 numbers, although he still should be one of the better base stealers in the American League and should score 100 runs.
If you have some power in your infield, I could see Ellsbury leading your outfield, but he is only going to help you out in a few categories.
8. Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees
.249 average, 30 homers, 71 RBI, 20 steals, 91 runs
Somewhere along the way Granderson’s average has slowly declined from pretty good to borderline in the toilet. A .300 hitter throughout his time in the minors with three seasons over .270 in the majors, Granderson slipped all the way down to .249 in 2009.
So, how will his move to Yankee Stadium affect his stats?
Many think that his 30 homers can go as high as 40, but I really don’t see that happening. He never showed 30 home run power in his previous season or in the minors, so I think that might have been his ceiling. I also expect his stolen bases to at best stay at 20, but likely go down to the range of around 15.
I know that this sounds like I don’t like Granderson (which is not true); I just don’t expect him to blow up farther just because he goes to Yankee Stadium into an impressive lineup. He is definitely a number one outfielder though, and should be drafted accordingly.
9. Jason Bay, New York Mets
.267 average,36 homers, 119 RBI, 13 steals, 103 runs
Like Matt Holliday last year, I can see Bay being devalued due to his new surroundings, but I still think that he is going to have a very productive season. I wouldn’t expect him to match his numbers from 2009 in Boston, but he still should have at least 25 homers and, if not 100 RBI, he should be dangerously close.
Don’t look for a huge drop off due to his new surroundings and he is a reasonable guy to have to be your number one outfielder, although he would be a fantastic number two.
10. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners
.352 average, 11 homers, 46 RBI, 26 steals, 88 runs
I have to admit that I am a little nervous that Ichiro’s stolen bases went from 43 in 2008 all the way down to 26 last season. However, he does bring you one thing that is very hard to predict and come by and that is a guaranteed good batting average.
Ichiro has at least 200 hits in every season since coming to America and has only hit under .310 once. Before 2009 he had also scored 100 runs in each year in his career, and that is another category that is tough to gauge.
He will be 36 years old this year, and an aging speedster might often be something to stay away from, but the Mariners are building their offense around contact and speed, and that should lend itself to a good year from Ichiro.
He doesn’t bring you any help in homers or RBI, which is generally why I never end up drafting him, but someone will pick him as their top outfielder.
11. Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
.272 average, 31 homers, 106 RBI, 6 steals, 92 runs
Ethier’s home runs and RBI have both increased each season of his career to the peak of his breakout season in 2009. Looking at the rest of his career and his minor league stats, I would be surprised if it continued that way, but he could still improve a little more.
I have to admit that while it isn’t near the level of Evan Longoria or Chase Utley, I am starting to develop a man crush on Ethier and look for him to be a stud again in 2010. There’s no reason to think that it is impossible for him to go 30/100 this season in the middle of a great lineup in Los Angeles.
12. Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
.305 average, 35 homers, 114 RBI, 93 runs
Many of you may not have known much about Lind when he had his huge season in 2009, but he was always supposed to be a great hitter. He was a minor league MVP in 2006, and was rated the No. 1 prospect in the Blue Jays organization in 2008. Lind was always supposed to mash, but some guys just take a little longer to figure it out on the major league level.
I completely expect him to be very good again in 2010, although I do look for his power numbers to come down some, perhaps to the 28-30 home run range, but hey I’ll take that too. He is a borderline number one outfielder for 2010.
13. Jayson Werth, Philadelphia Phillies
.268 average, 36 homers, 99 RBI, 20 steals, 98 runs
Werth got off to a slow start with just two home runs in the month of April, but then was pretty consistent the rest of the way, with either six or seven dingers every month that followed.
I am a little concerned about him duplicating the power numbers, but not much has changed with the situation in Philadelphia heading into 2010, so there is nothing to point to that says he is going to have a huge letdown. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished more in the 25-28 homer range than over 30, but he still will steal 20+ bags and drive in at least 90 runs.
Don’t stretch too far for Werth, but he certainly should have another great season and help your fantasy team in multiple categories.
14. Carlos Lee, Houston Astros
.300 average, 26 homers, 102 RBI, 5 steals, 65 runs
The days of the added benefit of his stolen bases are over and his power is starting to diminish, but El Caballo is still a worthwhile fantasy player. He has hit over .300 for four straight seasons, driven in 100 runs or more for five consecutive years, and has had at least 25 home runs in eight straight.
He will turn 34 during the season so his best days are clearly behind him, but don’t write off Lee just yet in seasonal leagues, as I can see two or three more productive years in him before the big drop off comes.
15. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles
.293 average, 18 homers, 101 RBI, 6 steals, 94 runs
Markakis is never going to be a huge power guy, but he should always bring you consistency, which is why I was surprised by his down season in 2009. His home run total has dropped in consecutive years, but I totally expect him to get back into the mid twenties as far as homers are concerned and to top 100 RBI for the third time in his six year career.
Baltimore should be a slowly improving team this season and Markakis’ production will be a big part of that. He is a professional hitter and at 26 years old he still has room to improve.
16. Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers
.260 average, 33 homers, 76 RBI, 20 steals, 75 runs (128 games)
Cruz had a huge breakout season in 2009, coming out of nowhere to be one of the more prolific power hitters in the American League. He is a nice combination of speed and power; however, there are a few things to be concerned about Cruz.
His batting average was certainly lower than you would like it to be, but he did hit for a very good average in the minor leagues, so you can expect that to improve at least some in 2010.
He doesn’t have a good batting eye, and sometimes chases balls out of the strike zone.
Thirty-three homers and 76 RBI? I generally don’t like guys with that kind of ratio, but hitting in the middle of the Rangers order with the nice table setters they have at the top of the line should give him ample opportunities to improve upon his RBI total.
I expect Cruz's average to go up 10-15 points, his power to come down slightly, and his RBI to jump about 15-20. He is a great guy to have as your second outfielder.
17. Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians
.300 average, 20 homers, 86 RBI, 21 steals, 87 runs
This guy doesn’t dominate any category, but he pretty much helps you a good amount across the board. Choo is just entering his prime and has gone from a guy with a kinda funny name to a legitimate fantasy player.
Based on his past career, I’m not sure that I see a big increase in any category in his future, but even if he only hits a few more homers or steals a few more bases, he is still a very good outfielder. He will be turning 28 years old in July and is just entering the prime of his career.
If you need a nice consistent player who will do a little bit of everything, Choo is your guy.
18. Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia Phillies
.272 average, 34 homers, 93 RBI, 4 steals, 93 runs (134 games)
Ibanez came out of the gate like a house of fire before losing steam after that. He had half of his home runs by the time that May was over, even with a very strong September.
It was Ibanez's best season total in home runs and I don’t expect him to duplicate it again in 2010. Although not much changed from last year to this, the guy will be turning 38 years old in June and I just can’t see him repeating his power numbers from 2009.
He could get to 25 or 27 homers at the most and about 100 RBI, but I even think that might be a bit of a stretch.
19. Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox
.247 average, 17 homers, 71 RBI, 24 steals, 63 runs
Rios went from an up and coming star to a headache in the clubhouse to a contract disaster all in the span of about 18 months. White Sox GM Kenny Williams took the chance and the contract on of Rios and he rewarded him with a strong end of the season.
Rios has never quite lived up to the potential that the Jays thought he had, although perhaps a change in scenery is just what the doctor ordered. He might not ever do it, but Rios is capable of hitting 25 homers, stealing 25 bases and hitting above .300.
20. Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
.277 average, 19 homers, 70 RBI, 10 steals, 83 runs (119 games)
One of the true young stars in baseball, Jones has all the tools to be a big time fantasy player and it could happen this year.
He got off to an incredible start in 2009 before injuries and inconsistencies derailed it, but his numbers still had a respectable jump for someone who is just 24 years old. The sky is the limit for this kid, and he could be a 30/20 threat as soon as this year.
Some may devalue him because he ended the season slumping, but please don’t forget about Jones. I promise you he will be a star in this league, and 2010 should be his coming out party.
21. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
.325 average, 10 homers, 48 RBI, 11 steals, 50 runs (81 games)
When healthy, Beltran is still one of the better outfielders in fantasy baseball; unfortunately his knees resemble that of a 75 year old man.
He missed half the season with a knee injury and he didn’t have offseason surgery until the after the new year. This means that Beltran will start the season on the DL, but as of now he is only due to miss the first two to three weeks of the season.
He is a high injury risk but he could have a nice payoff; if he is able come back to action on schedule, Beltran could be a nice pick up in the middle rounds.
22. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays
.241 average, 11 homers, 55 RBI, 42 steals, 79 runs (144 games)
I am still waiting for the B.J. Upton that we have heard about for what seems like 10 years to show up. Sure, the 42 stolen bases were nice, but very little power and an atrocious average still make him a risky pick.
He had that incredible showing during the playoffs a couple of years back for the Rays, and I am still wondering if that will ever come back. He obviously has all the talent in the world, but the puzzling thing is why he can’t put it together for a full season.
Will 2010 be the year?
I can’t say but I would still take him at this point in the rankings. You draft Upton, you can pretty much count on getting speed, but the rest is up in the air. He could hit .275 with 32 home runs, or he could do what he did in 2009 and disappoint you again.
I like the guy, but my patience is wearing thin.
23. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers
.290 average, 19 homers, 63 RBI, 62 runs (104 games)
Manny being Manny took on a whole new meaning last year, as the Dodgers outfielder served a 50 game suspension for PEDs and when he came back, he just wasn’t the same guy. He will be 38 years old in May, so he could be seeing just a natural regression in his numbers, especially if he is no longer doing whatever it was he got suspended for.
I still think Manny will hit his fair share of long balls and likely still hit over .300. He is no longer one of the elite players in fantasy baseball anymore, but he still should be a solid guy to have and an awesome third outfielder or a low end second guy.
24. Hunter Pence, Houston Astros
.282 average, 25 homers, 72 RBI, 14 steals, 76 runs
He strikes out a little too much, he gets caught stealing way too much, and you would like to see his RBI numbers go up for the number of homers that he hits.
However, there is plenty to like with Pence as well. He has hit 25 home runs in two consecutive seasons and there is reason to believe he could improve on that a little bit more in 2010 based on previous performances. He will turn 27 during April and is just entering the prime of his career.
Put that together with that cheap left field fence in Houston and it should be another great year for Pence. Hopefully we will see a slight bump in his numbers, but don’t expect a spike anywhere.
25. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
.286 average, 12 homers, 54 RBI, 22 steals, 74 runs (108 games)
Is it possible that the Pirates have a good player? I guess the only question is how long it will be before they trade him to one of the big market teams.
McCutchen is a five tool star in the making, although I question how high his home run numbers will go. I would be surprised if he got too far above 20 in a season, but it appears that he can steal 30 bases with his eyes closed.
I believe that he will improve on his impressive rookie season and be a very strong fantasy outfielder in 2010.
26. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox
.236 average, 21 homers, 56 RBI, 3 steals, 47 runs (99 games)
Quentin was on his way to the AL MVP in 2008 before a broken hand ended his season a month early.
Last season, it was plantar fasciitis that allowed him to play just 99 games. I believe that the foot injury was a big reason for his severe drop in batting average, as he was just not able to get comfortable in the batter’s box.
There is no doubt about Quentin’s ability. If he is healthy, he has a real shot at 40 home runs. However, between his labrum injury when he was with Arizona and now the last two years with the White Sox, there is plenty of concern about this guy’s ability to stay on the field.
Quentin is a bit of a gamble this season, but he could be a No. 1 outfielder easily if he can remain healthy.
27. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
.284 average, 13 homers, 29 RBI, 16 steals, 53 runs (89 games)
Car-Go has some of the biggest upside in fantasy baseball this year and is a guy that I will be targeting often. He is what they call a five tool star, although I am not sure that I expect him to steal bases at the same rate in 2010.
But the kid has a sweet swing, and although he strikes out too much, he appears to be a superstar waiting to happen. He is just 24 years old and given a full season of at-bats (which should be no problem even with the Rockies having many outfielders), Gonzalez should have no trouble getting to 25 homers, 85 RBI, and 20 steals.
Don’t stretch too far for the young fella but if he is your third outfielder, you should be in great shape.
28. Michael Bourn, Houston Astros
.285 average, 3 homers, 35 RBI, 61 steals, 97 runs
Need steals? This is the place to get them. Bourn has over 100 swipes in the past two years, although his fluctuating batting average is somewhat of a concern, as he hit just .229 in 2008.
I still think that he is more of the .285 hitter than the horrible average from two years ago. I expect Bourn’s average and runs scored to fall back, but he still should be a great source of stolen bases.
While I understand his value, Bourn is generally not a guy that I will draft. I am not a fan of a guy who truly only helps you in one category. He is good for runs but the total lack of home runs and RBI is enough for me to stay away.
29. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers
.268 average, 10 homers, 54 RBI, 8 steals, 43 runs (89 games)
This guy’s value is completely hinged on his health. It was a myriad of injuries that drained on Hamilton’s body and his statistics. When this guy is in there, he is capable of putting up scary numbers, including 40 home runs and 20 stolen bases.
Unfortunately for Hamilton and his fantasy owners, he has been spending plenty of time on the DL, and it seems to becoming a trend. There is no other reason that a guy who was a first round pick last year will likely be a third outfielder on a fantasy team this season.
If you are a gambling person, Hamilton is an amazing gamble as he could be the MVP or he could be done for the season by May.
So, do you feel lucky? Well, do ya? Punk!
30. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
.223 average, 22 homers, 58 RBI, 3 steals, 47 runs (101 games)
OK, here comes one of my favorites coming into 2010 and a guy you will likely see on most of my rosters if it is at all sensible.
Bruce finished the season really strong with four homers in the last ten days and he has all the talent in the world. He has had a hard time staying healthy as he hasn’t played even 110 games in a season yet, but as soon as he does, Bruce is going to be a top 15 outfielder. He is great value if you can get him as your third outfielder, as he has a chance to be so much more.
I know his average hasn’t been great, but he is a young hitter and it will come around in time.
You can always email me at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com about draft strategy, keeper questions, etc. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
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