The consensus number one pick in nearly every draft you participate in or read about is Albert Pujols. And rightly so; the guy has been putting up monster numbers year in and year out for quite some time.
This is not going to be a post knocking Albert Pujols as the number one guy. This is going to be a post explaining why I don’t think it’s a one-man race for that top pick and why Hanley Ramirez should be in the discussion and considered if you have the first pick.
Last year was what many consider a down year for Hanley Ramirez and a slight bit disappointing. Let’s look at exactly what Hanley did in this down year:
.300 Batting Average
92 Runs Scored
21 Home Runs
76 Runs Batted In
32 Stolen Bases
.378 On-Base Percentage
.475 Slugging Percentage
Those aren’t bad numbers to have in a down year.
But I also realize they are not numbers indicative of a number one overall pick in fantasy baseball. However, even those numbers would have likely put Hanley in the top 10 to 15 among all players in terms of a standard "5x5" rotisserie league. And when people say he had a down year, it isn't just an excuse; there are several indicators that point to a boost from last year in nearly all categories.
For starters, Hanley’s .300 batting average last year was his lowest since his 2006 rookie campaign. But his BABIP was .327, exactly 20 points below his career BABIP and the lowest total of his career. Considering his speed and natural ability, it’s not hard to think he could get his BABIP back to where it usually is and get his batting average closer to .320 than the .300 he had last year.
As far as the regressed power numbers, they are largely tied to the fact that he hit significantly fewer fly balls. This is why Hanley posted his second-highest HR/FB rate of his career despite hitting the fewest home runs since his rookie year. If Hanley can bring his fly ball percentage of 32.7 percent up to the 40 percent he achieved in the past, it should bring his home run totals back closer to 30 and put Hanley in line for another 30/30 season, which I am certain would not be his last.
Now that we have looked at what Hanley should be able to do this year, let’s talk about some of the reasons you would take him over Albert Pujols if you had the first pick in the draft.
There is no question that Pujols is the best player, but Hanley is arguably the most well-rounded player and hands down the best five-tool guy on your board. With his move to the middle of the order, Hanley is contributing runs batted in without losing too many stolen bases, and if the guys around him take a step forward this year, he could be in line for 90–100 RBI.
With that stat production, there is nowhere that Hanley cannot contribute in a standard "5x5" league. Pujols is in a league of his own, but there are a few guys who can come close to matching his across-the-board contributions; there is no one else that can do what Hanley Ramirez does.
You also have to consider the issue of position scarcity as well. If you have the first pick in the draft and you don’t take Hanley Ramirez you're also going to miss out on Troy Tulowitzki. After him, you have a collection of question marks and guys you really don’t want to have to take at shortstop.
Meanwhile, you're comparing that with first base, which is easily the deepest position there is. Who would you rather have with your first two picks: Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez and Prince Fielder? And if you don’t like Fielder you can also probably choose Kevin Youkilus in that second round based on early ADP’s.
Obviously, there is no rule saying you have to take a shortstop in the first two rounds. But the talent level after Hanley and Tulo falls off significantly, while it's still possible to get a 30 HR, 100 RBI first baseman in the fifth round.
Am I saying Hanley should be the number one pick? Not necessarily—unless you are in a keeper league; bear in mind he is still just 27.
But I do think you have to consider him an option with the first pick of the draft and if you do take him, I won’t be the guy calling you crazy. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him considered the number one player overall in fantasy baseball at the end of the year.
So what do you think of Hanley at number one? Is it foolish to even consider someone other than Albert Pujols? Are you still hung up on Hanley’s “down year?” Let us know what you think.
**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****
Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:
- Buchholz, Clay
- Butler, Billy
- Choo, Shin-Soo
- Ethier, Andre
- Freese, David
- Hughes, Phil
- Jaso, John
- Johnson, Chris
- Morrow, Brandon
- Uggla, Dan
- Reyes, Jose
- Suzuki, Kurt
- Wieters, Matt
- Willingham, Josh
- Young, Michael
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