The race for the American League Cy Young Award appears to be so tight it might force even the staunchest of baseball traditionalists to dig deep into the statistics that normally make them cringe.
Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is the mainstay, perennially one of the best pitchers in his league and in the majors. Cleveland Indians ace Corey Kluber is the new arrival, a late bloomer coming out of nowhere to stun the league and dominate opponents.
Hernandez was the first-half winner. Kluber was the second-half choice. For the entire season, the two right-handers were about as evenly matched as two aces can be over six months.
Come Wednesday, we will know how the Baseball Writers’ Association of America voted, and unless something jaw-dropping happened in the balloting, Hernandez or Kluber will walk away with AL Cy Young hardware.
The closest #BBWAA race likely will be the AL Cy Young between #Mariners Felix Hernandez and #indians Corey Kluber
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) November 4, 2014
So, who is more deserving? The answer lies somewhere in which statistics or accomplishments each individual voter values most or which ones they discount or don’t understand since you have to get into categories like RA9, xFIP and WPA. Even still, the more deserving pitcher is not crystal clear.
As for more understandable and traditional stats, Hernandez led the league in ERA (2.14) and WHIP (0.92) and was better than Kluber in ERA-plus (170), BABIP (.258) and walks per nine innings (1.75). Kluber led the league in wins (18) and was better than Hernandez in strikeouts (269), strikeouts per nine innings (10.27), FIP (2.35), FanGraphs WAR (7.3) and Baseball-Reference WAR (7.4).
When it comes to the more obscure statistical categories, Hernandez is better in xFIP (2.51), which is a fielding-independent stat but also attempts to correct for unstable home run rates. He is better in RA9 (2.59), which is similar to ERA but includes unearned runs. Kluber is better in WPA (3.39), a stat that measures how a player affects his team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.
As for team wins and losses, the Mariners were 22-12 in games Hernandez started. The Indians had the same record with Kluber. The one time the two pitched in the same game, Kluber threw a complete-game shutout while Hernandez went seven innings and allowed two runs in Cleveland.
While one pitcher might be better than the other in a certain category, none of the advantages are so huge that there is one standout category that voters can definitively say makes that pitcher more deserving.
However, that Kluber leads in both WAR calculations could go a long way in swaying votes to his side. WAR, while not perfect in either formula, tries to account for overall contribution, and it has gained steam over the last three years as an accepted way to measure performance across the board.
The fact that Kluber had a better pitching WAR than even Clayton Kershaw might be the tipping point.
Corey Kluber ended the season with MLB-leading pitching WAR of 7.3. Highest in baseball since Roy Halladay in 2011 (8.1).
— T.J. Zuppe (@TJZuppe) September 29, 2014
Corey Kluber retook Clayton Kershaw on the WAR leaderboard tonight and will finish the season with an MLB-best 7.4 Wins Above Replacement.
— August Fagerstrom (@AugustF_ABJ) September 27, 2014
In this race, there is always a “but.” Hernandez might not have the overall WAR Kluber does, but he was flat-out great against AL playoff teams. Within his division, Hernandez combined to go 7-0 with a 1.60 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 78.2 innings against the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland A’s. Against the Baltimore Orioles, Hernandez made one start and allowed one run over seven innings, striking out 10. His only blip was a five-inning, two-run performance against the Detroit Tigers, which he lost.
Against AL playoff teams, Kluber combined to go 4-5 with a 2.84 ERA in 79.1 innings.
Hernandez also had a record-setting stretch of 16 consecutive starts in which he pitched at least seven innings and allowed two runs of fewer.
Now is time for the other “but.”
Hernandez pitched most of his games at Safeco Field, a huge park that is the stingiest when it comes to giving up runs. And while the Mariners weren’t a great defensive team—they had minus-11 defensive runs saved—they were much better than the Indians, a team dead last in the AL in defensive runs saved with minus-75. That last number makes Kluber’s success more impressive because he put them up with little assistance from his defense.
Hernandez also has name recognition, a track record and superstar charisma, not to mention the fact that the voting panel is made up of human beings who can be influenced by such things despite the Cy Young Award being a single-season honor.
Hernandez has been one of the league’s best pitchers for the last seven seasons. He has one Cy Young Award already (2010), has finished in the top three of voting three times and in the top 10 four times. He has also made five All-Star teams, including four in a row.
Those past accomplishments shouldn’t matter, but the voters aren’t robots. And when things are this close, maybe a few of them will take a strong track record into consideration.
The numbers don’t give us a definitive winner here. Again, it is how you value certain marks and stretches during the season. Do you like pitcher WAR over ERA-plus? Is RA9 more important to you than WPA? Are you more impressed by longevity or the come-out-of-nowhere candidate?
In this space, the edge in the numbers goes to Kluber, but Hernandez’s streak of dominant starts and his numbers against quality opponents can nearly cancel out the statistical advantage.
The categories in which Kluber is better than Hernandez hold more weight than the ones Hernandez leads. And that he leads the majors in pitching WAR is enough to say he had the better season. If we can detach ourselves from what Hernandez has done before this season, Kluber should win.
Then again, the players gave Hernandez the nod in the MLB Players’ Choice Awards, which is to say hitters would rather face Kluber than Hernandez. And as has already been mentioned, voters tend to be swayed by history, both in-season and in previous ones. Hernandez has both on his side.
It is a ridiculously close race, and no matter who wins, it will be tough to argue with the voters. We will know soon enough, and one side will undoubtedly be up in arms about the decision.
Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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