First off, this isn't a postmortem. If things ended Friday, the Houston Astros would be in the postseason, albeit by the narrowest of margins.
But, whereas the surprising 'Stros looked like an October lock for much of the season, now they're hanging on by a thread—one that's slipping rapidly from their grasp.
After Friday's 6-2 loss to the Texas Rangers, Houston now sits 4.5 games off the pace in the American League West with eight games to play.
And with the Los Angeles Angels' 8-4 win over the Seattle Mariners, Houston is just a half-game ahead of the surging Halos for the AL's second wild-card slot.
For a moment, it looked like things might get even worse for the Astros, when second baseman Jose Altuve left Friday's game following a nasty collision with rookie shortstop Carlos Correa:
Altuve showed no signs of a concussion, per MLB.com's Brian McTaggart, which would have knocked him out for at least seven days.
"We feel like we dodged a little bit of a bullet there," manager A.J. Hinch said, per McTaggart. "Maybe something went our way."
Not much else has lately. The Astros are 7-15 in September, and in that span they've watched a four-game division lead melt into a daunting deficit.
FanGraphs' postseason projections still give the Astros a 58.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, though their odds of winning the West have sunk to 3.6 percent. Given how they've been playing, that feels generous.
After two more crucial contests with the Rangers, the Astros finish with six games on the road against the Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks, sub-.500 squads with losing records against Houston this year.
So there's hope. Tomorrow is a new day, and other platitudes.
But this isn't how the Astros' Cinderella season was supposed to end. They came out of spring as the team no one believed in. Then the pumpkin turned into a coach. Now, it all might vanish in an instant.
There are several explanations for the 'Stros' slide. The offense, which ranked No. 4 in baseball in runs scored in the first half, has fallen to a tie for No. 19 since the All-Star break, just ahead of the woeful Philadelphia Phillies.
And the pitching staff has posted an unsightly 5.06 ERA in September, with the formerly stalwart bullpen looking particularly ugly.
Even ace and Cy Young contender Dallas Keuchel has faltered in the final lap, coughing up nine earned runs in 4.2 innings in a blowout loss to the Rangers on Sept. 16.
"It's extremely disappointing, just because I couldn't help the guys out like I normally do," Keuchel said after the dispiriting outing, per McTaggart. "I know they were kind of leaning on me to kind of go out there and perform."
Keuchel bounced back with a strong start, and a win, against the Angels on Sept. 21. And he could take the mound two more times before season's end, depending on how the Astros set up their rotation. They'd obviously like to have Keuchel rested and ready for the do-or-die AL Wild Card Game—which will be played Oct. 6, likely in New York against the Yankees—but they have to get there first.
OK, so the bats have lagged and the arms have sagged. Is there anything else fueling Houston's collapse?
Experience isn't everything, but it can tip the scales. And compared to their Lone Star State counterparts, the Astros' collective postseason resume is thin, as Chron.com's Evan Drellich noted:
Current Rangers, including the injured Josh Hamilton, have 902 plate appearances in the playoffs lifetime. That’s more than seven times more the Astros’ tally, 125.
Jed Lowrie is the Astros’ leader in postseason experience at the plate, with 66 trips. The Rangers’ Prince Fielder (164), Hamilton (162), Mike Napoli (162) and Elvis Andrus (158) each have more plate appearances as individuals than the Astros do on a whole.
That doesn't necessarily tell us what's going to happen, only what has happened. Veteran leadership is a sometimes overrated asset; talent is talent.
But inexperience might cause a club to reach more quickly for the panic button when a once-sparkling season loses its sheen.
The Astros aren't buried yet. They still control their own destiny, at least in terms of the wild-card race. All they need to do is win, and keep winning.
And if they don't? Well, check back here for the inevitable postmortem.
All statistics and standings current as of Sept. 25 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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