For teams on the hunt for a stud first baseman, Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles looms about as large on the offseason market as he does in real life. If a team wants to go for it at first base, it'll pay him the big bucks.
Or, it could trade for Freddie Freeman. In fact, it probably should trade for Freddie Freeman.
This is assuming that Freeman is even available. That's a notion that the Atlanta Braves want nothing to do with publicly, as general manager John Coppolella has been adamant that his 26-year-old first baseman is not for sale.
“I cannot make it any more clear: We are not trading Freddie Freeman," Coppolella told Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY. "We are not. I’d give my right arm before we trade Freddie Freeman. It is not happening."
So there's that. But you'll have to pardon us for being skeptical.
Despite what Coppolella is saying, word is he's acting differently behind the scenes. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has reported that the Braves are actively shopping Freeman. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports piled on, calling that report "100 percent true."
It's not hard to believe that Freeman really is on the block. The Braves don't want to say it, but they entered a rebuilding phase as soon as they traded Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis last winter. Fresh off 95 losses in 2015, they went deeper into this rebuilding phase by trading Andrelton Simmons two weeks ago.
Trading Freeman would be the next logical step. It would allow the Braves to jettison the $118.5 million he's owed over the next six years, and it could bring back a nice haul of young talent. He is, after all, a very young and very talented first baseman who's in the middle of his prime.
As it happens, that's also the short version of why he's a more desirable target than Davis.
Because somebody's bound to bring it up, yes, I am aware that this is me flip-flopping. In the final rankings for the B/R MLB Offseason 100, Davis scored higher than Freeman on the basis that he's going to be both a better talent and a better value in the long-run.
But looking back at it now, I feel I made the mistake of looking at the best-case scenario for Davis' future and probably the worst-case scenario for Freeman's future.
To be sure, there's little question that Davis is the more appealing player as things stand now. Even with his lousy 2014 season—in which he was eventually suspended for 25 games—mixed in, Davis still stops Freeman in some key categories over the last three seasons:
- fWAR: 13.4 to 12.6
- rWAR: 13.5 to 12.0
- OPS: .891 to 863
- ISO: .292 to .182
- HR: 126 to 59
Among these, it's the last two that stand out. That's a big power advantage. Like, really big.
All that power is the reason why Davis is considered to be one of the best position players on the open market, if not the best. That's where Passan and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports put him, with the latter predicting that Davis' power could earn him a contract as large as seven years and $182 million.
Given the right circumstances—namely a power-friendly park and the availability of the DH—I figure Davis' power could age well in the life of a long-term contract. What I was hesitant to consider before, however, was the possibility that it won't.
As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs pointed out, power has been known to be subject to a harsh aging curve. And with his age-30 season due up, Davis is right on the edge of when that aging curve starts to get very harsh. He might be able to keep defying it in the short term, but probably not the long term.
That's a scary thought. Because when you take away Davis' power, you're not left with much.
Davis isn't a pure hitter. He's learned to take his walks, but the passing of time hasn't cured his extreme strikeout tendency. Between that and his extreme pull tendency, Davis really only has his power to lean on when he puts the ball in play. If that goes, the .196 batting average and .300 on-base percentage he posted in 2014 will look less like an outlier and more like a warning.
Elsewhere, Davis can't do enough on the basepaths or on defense to recoup any lost hitting value. He runs as well as you'd expect a 6'3", 230-pound behemoth to run. And though the defensive metrics approve of Davis' defense, even good defense at first base isn't that valuable.
Meanwhile, there's Freeman. He's not only considerably younger than Davis, but more of a well-rounded player.
We mentioned before how Davis has outpaced Freeman in some key categories over the last three seasons. But Freeman has some advantages of his own, most notably in how he's a much better pure hitter.
If we stick to sizing up their 2013-2015 seasons, that comes through when comparing how Davis and Freeman have performed in the following areas: walks, strikeouts, line drives, pull percentage and soft and hard contact rates.
Highlighted here is the fundamental difference between Davis and Freeman: Davis is a big dude who sells out for power, and Freeman is a big dude (he's 6'5",225 pounds) who doesn't sell out for power.
Hence his average and OBP advantages, which are more important than you might think.
Davis may have Freeman beat in power, but adjusted offense actually favors what Freeman has done in the last three seasons. He has a 142 wRC+ to Davis' 140 wRC+.
Plus, Freeman is a pretty good defender in his own right. Davis rates as the better of the two over the last two seasons. But over the last four, the defensive metrics say it's at worst a push and at best an advantage in favor of Freeman.
So Davis has just the one advantage over Freeman: power. But while there's no denying that, Freeman is no slouch. Though his home run potential probably doesn't exceed 20-25 per year, he's consistently been an easily above-average power producer.
There is a red flag where Freeman's power is concerned, though. He missed a good chunk of time with a right-wrist injury in 2015, and his power wasn't the same after he returned from it. He went from slugging .520 pre-injury to just .395 post-injury.
It's possible that struggle may not be over, as wrist injuries have been known to linger and continue sapping power. In the B/R MLB Offseason 100, that was my big fear about Freeman's future.
But truth be told, it was probably too big.
In recent seasons, among those who have bounced back from power-sapping wrist injuries are David Ortiz, Jose Bautista and Mark Teixeira. Because they all did it well past the age of 30, there's a pretty good chance that a mere 26-year-old like Freeman can do the same.
If Freeman can do that, then he'll get back to being his usual self: a good hitter with power who can also play a solid first base. That combination has made him a 4-ish WAR player in the last three seasons, and more of that in the life of his remaining contract would be plenty to justify the $118.5 million expense. And because he's only 26, there should indeed be plenty more of that.
Of course, the cost of acquiring Freeman would extend beyond just absorbing his contract. The Braves are also going to want young talent for him—and good young talent at that.
But even then, Freeman should still come at a smaller cost than Davis.
Signing Davis is likely to mean not just spending close to $200 million, but also surrendering a draft pick. Because draft picks have considerable value of their own, that's a lot to sacrifice.
If we go off of the prospect valuations offered by
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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