Youth was served in great, big, heaping helpings in the 2015 MLB season. We witnessed one of the best rookie classes in recent memory—and of all time, for that matter.
Surely, MLB would honor them all if it could. But at 6 p.m. ET Monday, it will recognize only two when the American League and National League Rookie of the Year awards are announced.
In the meantime, you've come to the right place if you're looking to catch up on who the nominees are and what they did in 2015. There are three finalists for each of the AL and NL ROY awards. We're going to break them down by league and in alphabetical order starting...now.
American League Finalists
Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
The Astros drafted Carlos Correa No. 1 overall in 2012. He became a top prospect almost immediately and was arguably the top prospect by the time he made his MLB debut June 8.
So, let's give him a hand for living up to the hype—plus "some."
In 99 games, the 21-year-old shortstop hit .279 with an .857 OPS, 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases. His 22 dingers led all shortstops, and his 132 OPS+ (that's OPS measured against the league average) ranked second among rookies with at least 400 plate appearances.
While Correa was blazing trails with his offense, his defense was only so-so, according to FanGraphs' metrics. But with plus-plus arm strength and better range than you'd expect from a 6'4", 210-pound shortstop, Correa looked as good as anyone on defense at times.
As for where Correa may be headed, Chris Mitchell of FanGraphs found that one of the most comparable rookie seasons to Correa's 2015 is Cal Ripken Jr.'s 1982. If that bodes well, then this note from Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com bodes even better:
There are times when it's not good to be compared to Alex Rodriguez. This is not one of those times.
As good as Correa was, however, he is facing some stiff competition.
Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians
The Indians called Francisco Lindor up on June 14, about a week after Correa had made his MLB debut. And for much of his rookie season, he was stuck in Correa's shadow.
But in the end? Not so much.
In 99 games, the 22-year-old shortstop hit .313 with an .835 OPS, 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. That's an impressive offensive performance, and it caught many by surprise. Though Lindor was drafted eighth overall in 2011 and became an elite prospect, he was never a standout hitter in the minors.
"That came from the people surrounding me," Lindor said in a recent interview with Bleacher Report. "Michael Brantley. Jason Kipnis. Carlos Santana. They backed me up a lot. That helped me get the pitches that [I could drive]. There was also the work. The coaching staff makes you put in the work, day in and day out. That helped me as well."
If Lindor's offense was superb, his defense was superber. Among those who can vouch for that is none other than Correa, who felt the wrath of Lindor's glove and arm on this play:
Such plays were a common occurrence throughout Lindor's rookie year. That's why he was rated as an elite defender. He was even MLB's best defensive shortstop, period, according to UZR/150.
With this being the case, Lindor arguably had a more well-rounded rookie season than Correa did. But let's not forget about the other candidate.
Miguel Sano, DH, Minnesota Twins
By the time the Twins called up Miguel Sano on July 2, the focus in the American League was already on Correa and Lindor. As a bat-only player who missed all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though, Sano seemed like less of a sure thing.
But then he, you know, did what he did.
In 80 games, the 22-year-old Sano hit .269 with a .916 OPS and 18 home runs. His OPS+ of 146 was easily the highest among all rookies with 250-plus plate appearances.
And Sano would have finished with 19 home runs had it not been for Tropicana Field's blasted catwalks:
We bring up this video in part for the comedy and in part for something else:
That sound.
Sano often made it clear that he had thunder in his bat. Baseball Savant tells us only one player hit the ball harder on average:
- Giancarlo Stanton: 97.7 mph
- Miguel Sano: 94.5 mph
Of course, the catch is that Sano only made an impact with his bat in 2015. As a designated hitter, he didn't make an impact in the field like Correa and Lindor did.
And yet, there's a case to be made that Sano deserves to be Rookie of the Year anyway. As Jeff Sullivan pointed out at Fox Sports, Sano put up significantly better offensive numbers against notably better competition than Correa and Lindor faced.
But if it's a matter of how the three finalists for the AL Rookie of the Year award stack up, we better go to the tape.
How They Stack Up
How do we properly weigh which of these three deserves to be AL Rookie of the Year?
Because we're in the year 2015, we can start by consulting wins above replacement, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com (rWAR) and FanGraphs (fWAR):
As far as WAR is concerned, this is a two-horse race between Correa and Lindor. And with all due respect to Sano, that's the way it should be. Sano did some amazing things with his bat, but Correa and Lindor played in more games and made more of an all-around impact.
WAR gives Lindor the advantage over Correa. Given that he was nearly as good as Correa on offense and notably better on defense, that's understandable. And because we're in an age when more people are paying attention to defense, that could be what makes the difference.
But this is not to say Correa can't win. Though Lindor may have had the better all-around season, some voters may have gravitated toward Correa because of what he did to help the Astros to the playoffs.
In other words: There's no obvious choice between Correa and Lindor. And no wrong choice either.
National League Finalists
Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Coming into 2015, no prospect was more hyped than Kris Bryant. Most everyone was expecting him to be a combination of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Luke Skywalker.
And amazingly, he kinda was.
In 151 games, the 23-year-old Bryant hit .275 with an .858 OPS and 26 home runs. Those 26 homers led all rookies, and Bryant's 133 OPS+ was tops among rookies who logged at least 400 plate appearances. Also, he's one of only five rookie third basemen in history to top a 130 OPS+ with 25 or more homers.
Granted, things weren't especially great for Bryant in the beginning. But they definitely got great by the end. In August, September and October, Bryant had an OPS of .967 with 12 home runs, one of which was measured by Statcast as the longest homer of 2015 at 495 feet:
Bryant wasn't just impressive at the plate. He also stole 13 bases and, according to the metrics, played above-average defense at the hot corner. He wasn't just a great hitter. He was a great player.
But you can say the same about the other third baseman in the running for NL Rookie of the Year.
Matt Duffy, 3B, San Francisco Giants
Whereas Bryant was on everyone's radar coming into 2015, Matt Duffy was probably only on Mr. and Mrs. Duffy's radar. He was a skinny non-prospect who would be lucky if he even so much as filled a bench role for the Giants in 2015.
That's how things started for Duffy. But then Casey McGehee's daily struggles became too much to handle, and Duffy took over at third for good in early May.
The end result? In 149 games, the 24-year-old hit .295 with a .762 OPS, 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. He wasn't the game's top offensive rookie, but he was one of them.
As for how Duffy got it done, it helped that he regularly put the ball in play. What benefited him even more, though, was how well the righty spread his hits around the field:
In addition to his strong offense, Duffy also contributed strong defense. He was well above average, according to the metrics. In fact, only Adrian Beltre, Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado had more defensive runs saved at third base.
But if Duffy is going to win the NL Rookie of the Year award, Bryant isn't the only infield left-sider he needs to worry about.
Jung-Ho Kang, SS/3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Last winter, the Pirates placed a $16 million bet on the idea that Jung-Ho Kang could make a successful transition from the Korea Baseball Organization to Major League Baseball. His 1.198 OPS and 40 home runs the season before said it was a smart bet. The reality that no position player had ever made the switch said there was plenty of risk involved.
Sometimes, though, gamblers just know what they're doing.
In 126 games, the 28-year-old Kang hit .287 with an .816 OPS and 15 home runs. In posting a 124 OPS+, he finished third behind only Bryant and Correa among rookies with at least 400 plate appearances.
That had a lot to do with how well Kang's pop translated to MLB. Relative to his fellow shortstops, he made hard contact more often than all but one player:
- Troy Tulowitzki: 37.2 Hard%
- Jung-Ho Kang: 34.4 Hard%
But while this is a flattering look, Kang wasn't all about power. He was also one of the league's better baserunning rookies, and his defense at both shortstop and third base was solid.
The tragedy, of course, is that Kang's season ended early when Chris Coghlan tore up his left leg with a takeout slide in mid-September. Nonetheless, the fact that Kang is in the running for the NL Rookie of the Year award explains why you're going to hear a lot about his fellow Korean hitters—e.g., Byung-Ho Park, Hyun-Soo Kim, Ah-Seop Son—following in his footsteps. The door is open.
As for whether Kang can actually win, well...
How They Stack Up
We'll again use WAR to measure the three NL Rookie of the Year contenders:
Survey says: It's not particularly close. If Bryant doesn't win, it'll be a major upset.
This is an accurate representation of things. Though Duffy and Kang deserve to be finalists, it's hard to say either of them deserves the award over Bryant. The Cubs slugger was a more productive hitter than not just Duffy and Kang but all other rookies. And while that would only be worth so much if Bryant didn't run the bases or play defense, he did both of those things well.
Best guess: It'll be Bryant in a landslide.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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