San Francisco Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez has a 5.43 ERA and a 1.73 Whip to go along with his 2-7 record. Many expected Sanchez to improve upon his 5.01 ERA of last year, but although some facets of his game have gotten better, the overall product has taken a turn for the worse.
I tried to dig a little deeper into Sanchez’s pitch data from FanGraphs.com and used some of my own observations to think of a few things that may help the Giants starter to improve.
Switch locations
Often times Sanchez will repeat well placed locations on the outside and bottom parts of the strike zone. Opposing batters have trouble getting hits on these pitches, but since he’s repeating spots, they will foul off four or five balls in one at-bat. This leads to him accumulating high pitch counts near the beginning of the game and often causes an early hook.
Sanchez is very good at repeating his release point, so he may have the control to change locations and throw on the inside part of the plate more often.
Take more off of the change-up
Sanchez’s slider and fastball combination is turning into a solid combo, but his change up is still very hittable. The slider didn’t start to become a plus pitch until he dropped a couple of miles per hour on it (83.2 in 2008 down to 81.7 in 2009).
His change-up has actually been gaining velocity and has been consistently above 83 MPH.
2007: 83.0
2008: 83.2
2009: 83.7
Successful Major League pitchers generally have a speed differential of around 10 MPH between their fastball and change up. Sanchez has less than an eight MPH differential. If he can drop at least another mile or two on his change, then it will likely improve his all around statistics.
Movement Variations
Sanchez’s fastball is losing horizontal movement and gaining vertical movement.
Horizontal (’07-’09) = 8.9, 7.6, 7.4
Vertical (’07-’09) = 8.3, 8.1, 9.4
Similarly, the change-up is doing the same thing:
Horizontal (’07-’09) = 10.0, 8.3, 7.5
Vertical (’07-’09) = 2.6, 3.9, 4.7
I’m not sure if this is a mechanics shift to preserve his arm, but judging by how Matt Cain has taken off with all of his added horizontal movement, I’m wondering if there is a way to get more horizontal movement on Sanchez’s change and fastball.
Maybe he should fling a few pitches side-armed or from a three quarters slot, because everything is looking hittable right now. On the other hand, he has a good release point, so keeping his motion simple could be the best idea.
Killer instinct
Here is a recent quote from Sanchez:
“I’ve just got to throw more innings and cut the walks. If I cut the walks, I can throw six or seven innings every time.”
Throw more innings? Yes.
Cut the walks? Indeed.
Throw six or seven innings?
Aren’t you supposed to be aiming for a complete game? If you shoot for six or seven innings, then you will likely only pitch four or five. If something goes awry, which in Sanchez’s case; it generally does, then you won’t last a minute. If you are looking to throw a complete game shutout, then you never know how late in a game you can last.
“I think I’m getting close to the roll I was on last year,” said Sanchez.
Memo to J.S.: Last year was nothing to phone home about. An ERA around 4.00 is decent…. not 5.00.
Running out of chances
It seems that Sanchez might be headed to the bullpen, the way that he has thrown recently. It may be a role that suits him, because he will only have to focus for an inning or two at a time.
However, relievers don’t get paid as well as starters and they also don‘t get that relaxing four days of rest in between starts. Not too mention, being a MLB starting pitcher is an occupation that garners high levels of respect. However, it is also a great privilege and should be treated as such.
Juan Uribe: A man of many positions.
Uribe can play just about everywhere on the infield. He may not have the range of Edgar Renteria as shortstop, but he has been playing a phenomenal third base. Uribe has posted a positive 0.7 UZR at third and that would probably translate into him being a decent second baseman too.
He was great at second base for the White Sox last year with a +2.8 UZR, and he likely has a more capable bat than newcomer Scott Downs. Also, first baseman and recent on-base machine, Travis Ishikawa, is looking to log some playing time.
Positioning Uribe at second base instead of third would allow Giants manager Bruce Bochy to get Ishikawa into the game.
I might not buy two tickets to the gun show, but I would definitely buy two tickets to watch Uribe’s incredible glove work on defense and sweet stroke at the plate (even if I still think that the batting average could drop).
Walks lead to runs
Boston- 286 walks (1st), 385 runs (1st)
Tampa Bay- 280 walks (2nd), 354 runs (4th)
Seattle- 171 walks (29th), 246 runs (30th)
San Francisco- 153 walks (30th), 259 runs (28th)
Comparisons to the amazing Pablo Sandoval
Vladimir Guerrero, 6-3, age 34
2009: 112 AB, .286 BA, .308 OBP, 1 HR, 9 RBI
Guerrero has about 4 inches in height on the 5-11 Sandoval and although Sandoval has got some serious extension, Guerrero swings a huge bat and has one of the biggest hit zones in the history of the game.
Also, the Panda is a switch hitter and has already shown the ability to display plate discipline, even if his P/PA is still a fairly low number of 3.45. It is already ahead of Vlad’s average career rate of around 3.30 though.
Guerrero maintained a pretty solid career on-base percentage, but it is mostly due to his very high career batting average of .322. Sandoval has the ability to hit for a similarly high average, but it’s more because he has an amazing eye for the ball, than his Guerrero like extension.
I’d say that a better comparison for Sandoval is the 5-11 slugging first baseman by the name of Prince Fielder. Fielder throws right and bats left. Like Sandoval, he has a good eye for the ball and he has a very similar body type. Sandoval can likely hit for high average than Fielder.
Either way, you can‘t really go wrong with a Guerrero-Fielder hybrid, who can play solid infield defense at third base (and he won’t have back spasms). Where did this guy come from?
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