The San Francisco Giants plunged into the offseason with two clear and pressing needs: upgrades in the starting rotation and reinforcements in the outfield.
The signings of Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto equal mission accomplished on item one.
Samardzija is an intriguing reclamation project who should benefit from the Giants' excellent defense and the spacious confines of AT&T Park. And Cueto, as I recently argued, could join forces with ace Madison Bumgarner to form the most potent one-two pitching punch of San Francisco's recent title era.
The Giants' outfield situation, however, is unsettled. Right fielder and former iron man Hunter Pence, who turns 33 in April, is coming off an injury-riddled campaign. Center fielder Angel Pagan, who turns 35 in July, has missed 186 games over the last three seasons with hamstring, back and knee issues.
After declining team options on Nori Aoki and Marlon Byrd, San Francisco is penciling 32-year-old Gregor Blanco into left. No offense to Blanco, who's been a valuable contributor in his four seasons by the Bay, but he's a fourth outfielder on a team with championship aspirations.
The good news for the Giants is that this winter is laden with available outfielders. The Chicago Cubs snapped up Jason Heyward, but a trio of All-Star-quality players—Alex Gordon, Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes—sit unsigned.
And, look at that, all three profile best as left fielders.
They also won't come cheap. Gordon is seeking somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million annually, per CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. Cespedes will likely demand at least that much and told ESPN in September that any contract he signs "has to be six years or more."
Upton, a 28-year-old five-tool talent, can use Heyward's eight-year, $184 million deal as a comp. He may not match it, but he could come close.
The Giants have already invested $220 million into Samardzija and Cueto (assuming Cueto doesn't pull the opt-out ripcord two years into his deal). Will they really dole out another eight- or nine-figure contract?
General manager Bobby Evans sounded skeptical in recent remarks on MLB Network Radio.
"The middle-of-the-order bat is probably harder to get," Evans said when asked about left field. "We've seen guys stay on the market a lot longer, so there's clearly an expectation as to where they're going to be [financially]. And I think at some point the market will get them what they're looking for. And that could put us in a tough spot."
Translation: We're not getting a Gordon, a Cespedes or an Upton unless their prices come down. Which, you know, probably isn't happening.
It's an assessment shared by Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, who predicted after the Cueto signing that "the Giants will lower their sights in left field..."
That shouldn't shock Giants fans. After all, prior to this offseason the team hadn't made a major commitment to an outside free agent (meaning a player who wasn't already a Giant) since Aaron Rowand in 2007. Before that, it was Barry Zito in 2006.
Neither of those contracts worked out especially well, to put it mildly. Rowand's production tumbled in his four seasons in San Francisco, to the point where the Giants paid the veteran outfielder $12 million to stay away in 2012. And Zito, transcendant postseason moments aside, never lived up to his seven-year, $126 million payday, which was a true headline-grabber by 2006 standards.
So there may be a bit of gun-shyness in the Giants' front office. If so, however, they obviously pushed past it to nab Cueto and Samardzija and address a glaring need.
Now, they should do the same in left. Not because it's an even year or any such nonsense (although it is an even year).
Rather, they should do it because a right-handed power bat like Cespedes sandwiched between Pence and Buster Posey in the middle of the lineup would make this club exponentially more dangerous. Also because they set a National League record for the most consecutive sellouts. And, finally, because it's not my money, or yours either.
The Giants are set with an enviable homegrown infield of Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and last season's surprise rookie, Matt Duffy. They've got a battle-tested bullpen, a revamped rotation and Posey, the face of the franchise and the best backstop in baseball.
Now, it's time to add the final piece, a scary bat in left, and cement this all-in winter.
Here's another interesting nugget from Evans' MLB Network Radio interview: "We have the flexibility to spend some money now. But we also recognize a good number of options in the trade market, too."
If your mind didn't immediately go to the Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez, you're not dreaming big enough.
Gonzalez's name has been churning through the rumor mill since before the offseason began. He's coming off a strong bounce-back season that saw him club 40 home runs and post an .864 OPS. And the two years, $37 million left on his contract make him a bargain in today's market.
He'd cost more than money, of course. It's unclear what, exactly, the Rockies would demand. But any deal would surely start with one (or two) of the Giants' top prospects, including right-hander Tyler Beede and shortstop Christian Arroyo.
If Colorado asks for Panik or Duffy, forget it. But if the Giants could get this done without sacrificing any current big league starters—backup catcher Andrew Susac could be an enticing chip—they should make a serious play.
Any trade or free-agent signing carries risk. Gonzalez's injury history is a red flag and AT&T's right-field dimensions are an imposing sight for left-handed hitters not named Barry Bonds. If you're playing pessimist, Gordon, Cespedes and Upton could all succumb to ailments or declines, as well. That's the nature of the beast.
So, yes, the safe move is probably for San Francisco to give fewer dollars and years to someone like Gerardo Parra and call it an offseason. Or they could pair Blanco with a young player from their system such as Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker or journeyman/mountain-of-a-man Kyle Blanks and hope for the best.
They'd still arguably be the favorite to win the NL West, though the Arizona Diamondbacks are loading up on pitching and the Los Angeles Dodgers are perennial contenders despite an underwhelming offseason.
This is a chance, however, for the Giants to get greedy and charge full steam toward their fourth title in seven years.
They can solidify their dynasty beyond reproach. They can reward the fans who religiously pack their sparkling waterfront ballpark. They can hoist the trophy yet again.
All they need to do is be bold and, OK, a little reckless. It is an even year, after all.
All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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