With the winter meetings in the rearview mirror, the Major League Baseball offseason is no longer young. And if we know anything, it's definitely that teams are now well-armed.
You know, as opposed to well-batted. Teams haven't been rushing to the bats aisle. But the arms? Shoot, man. They've been flying off the shelves faster than Sidd Finch fastballs.
Give or take a couple of un-finalized signings, MLB Trade Rumors' transaction tracker tells us that over $1.1 billion has been spent on free agents so far. Of that, over $1 billion has been spent on pitching alone. That includes $600 million on the four largest contracts belonging to David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Jeff Samardzija.
Pitchers have also been hot items on the trade market. Elite fireman Craig Kimbrel and budding ace Shelby Miller were moved in blockbusters. Also changing their addresses courtesy of the trading block are Wade Miley, Jesse Chavez, Joaquin Benoit and Francisco Rodriguez.
Meanwhile, on the hitting market...hang on, searching for a cricket sound-effect clip on YouTube...ah, there we go.
It's been quiet, alright. Only Ben Zobrist and Asdrubal Cabrera have signed contracts of note. And apart from notables such as Andrelton Simmons, Adam Lind and Neil Walker, the trade market has mostly been focused on reclamation projects (i.e. Mark Trumbo) and upside plays (i.e. Starlin Castro).
What's the deal? Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY has a theory:
"The trouble in this market is that pitching has gotten so ridiculously expensive; teams are starting to panic and focusing solely on making sure they’ve filled their pitching needs before entertaining any thoughts of position players."
A sound theory, to be sure. But we can also throw in the fact that J.A. Happ and Zimmermann helped set prices on the pitching market early. We can also throw in the reality that, in today's game, pitching is simply more prevalent than hitting.
But in case you're getting tired of hearing about the arms, fret not. The hitting market can't stay down forever, and it's a safe bet that it's about to get going.
From the sound of things, you'd guess that there simply weren't many good bats available this winter. But that's where you're wrong, Mr. Strawman. The good bats are plentiful.
In no single area is that truer than on the free-agent outfield market. Out there for the taking are Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Gordon, whom Baseball-Reference.com WAR rates as four of the league's 17 best outfielders since 2012.
All these guys need is for one of them to sign and set the market, and it's sounding more and more like Heyward will do the honors.
The word from the winter meetings is that the Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals are all in the mix for Heyward. Also, we know, courtesy of Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, that he has at least one $200 million offer on the table:
If it's a $200 million contract for Heyward that sets the market, well, that would be just fine for Upton, Cespedes and Gordon. The same goes for Dexter Fowler and Denard Span, who are also on the lookout for rich multi-year deals. Combined, these six guys could sign for as much as $700 million.
No other corner of the market is going to make that much money, but there's no question Chris Davis is going to hog all the money on the corner infield market.
After leading the majors in home runs in two of the last three seasons, Davis is said to be seeking his own $200 million contract, according to Heyman. That's likely a stretch, but Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Davis had the Baltimore Orioles thinking of going as high as $168 million to re-sign him:
Elsewhere on the infield, there's a bit more depth to be found in the middle of the diamond. Still out there are multi-talented shortstop Ian Desmond, as well as Daniel Murphy and Howie Kendrick—a pair of sweet-swinging second basemen.
They don't have to wait for any market-setters, as the contracts Zobrist (four years and $56 million) and Cabrera (two years and $18.5 million) signed set the market for them. And given their track records, all three are likely to land more toward the Zobrist end of the spectrum.
Mind you, there are still some pretty good pitchers out there to draw attention away from the hitters we've just name-dropped. Johnny Cueto now has the ace market to himself, and the list of solid No. 2/No. 3 types still includes Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake and Yovani Gallardo. With them still out there, the pitching market isn't done making noise.
But there's no way it has as much noise left in it as the hitting market does. Those pitchers are going to command "only" a couple of hundred million dollars. The hitters we've mentioned could crack a billion dollars, and that's just the high end of a hitting market that has barely been touched.
By now, you might be cursing your parents for not talking you out of quitting little league. But remember, it's not all about the Benjamin-chasers on the open market.
The trade market is still there as well, and it also has plenty of impact bats to offer. Of those, there are a couple that we pretty much know are going to be moved.
One is Cincinnati Reds slugging third baseman Todd Frazier, whom C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer said was being shopped heavily at the winter meetings. Another is Colorado Rockies slugging right fielder Carlos Gonzalez, whom Jon Morosi of Fox Sports said is as available as the next Rockies outfielder. These two combined for 75 home runs in 2015, and their rebuilding employers have little use for all that power.
There's more than just power out there. For teams in need of a good catcher, Milwaukee Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy has been often been mentioned as trade bait. For those in need of speed, New York Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner has come up a lot. For teams that want speed and power, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reported the Houston Astros are open to moving George Springer or Carlos Gomez.
“We listen,” said Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow. “We talk to clubs about everything. There’s nothing out of bounds.”
If we can assume the same is true of all general managers, some lucky team might be able to get Atlanta Braves general manager John Coppolella to change his mind about first baseman Freddie Freeman. And though he comes loaded with all sorts of baggage, a team may be able to ease the Dodgers' fear about selling low on the ultra-talented Yasiel Puig whom Heyman says they have.
And so on, and so on. The gist. You get it.
At a time when teams are struggling to hit, it does seem odd that a hitting market that's so rich with talent could go largely untouched for so long. But we're likely reaching the point where that becomes neither here nor there.
The intense demand for pitching early on has weakened the supply. In the coming days and weeks, that'll be the cue teams need to head for the bats.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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