A couple of days ago when the news broke of an imminent Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee-prospects swap within hours of the Red Sox acquiring John Lackey, a lot of Braves fans (including myself) peeked our heads up thinking that these moves signaled Derek Lowe's albatross of a contract finding its way out of time.
And, for me, it still does.
Seeing as how he's the only reliable 200 inning guy left out there, it's safe to assume that pitching hungry teams are eyeing him a bit more than guys like Joel Pineiro that have only seen limited stints of success at the big league level.
But how much more?
Well, if you listen to guys like Ken "I-like-to-make-premature-analysis-so-I-can-'break'-the-story" Rosenthal, you'd think that Lowe's value has shot up to "Adrian Gonzalian" (note the use of a hyperbole) levels.
I'm just not completely buying what guys like that are selling.
Hearing a name like Juan Rivera come out of these guys' mouth make me scratch my head.
After all, despite his durability and longevity thus far in his Major League career, Lowe would come to any new town sitting on a dollar figure somewhere around $15 million (depending on how much the Braves eat) with a 4.67 ERA being dragged behind him.
Is that, using Rivera here, worth a player six years his junior that possesses 25-30 homer potential and a sweet right handed stroke that produced a near .290 average last season?
Right there, you're saying "N..."
Add in the fact that that kind of production is being held at just under $10 million over the next two seasons, and the "...OOOOOOO!" quickly follows.
It's not an issue of not liking the skill set a Juan Rivera (who I've previously endorsed for a spot in Atlanta) would bring to the table.
It's just that every ounce of "homer" in me cannot fathom that type of player being had for an older, more expensive, riskier (in terms of performance) player.
I've seen the Lowe situation as an opportunity to just get out from under his salary...no more...no less.
And, personally, I would be content with an A or AA player with only marginal Major League prospects.
Once again, not to say that I would [female dog] if a solid right-handed bat were coming the other way...I just don't see it.
And by expecting that (which I doubt the Braves are) kind of return, the Braves would be playing themselves into a very select group of suitors that have Major League offensive surplus and payroll flexibility (because, remember, the Braves do not want to eat too much) to complete such a deal.
The Yankees are the only team coming to mind that meet that type of criteria with any sort of need in the rotation (it's not like the Angels are stacked, they'd be left with Gary Matthews Jr. in left of they were to trade Rivera in some proposed scenarios).
A Rafael Soriano-esq deal is what I see happening: Lowe and full salary ($3 million max of help if the Braves so choose) for a marginal dude.
Now, if you want to talk throwing in a prospect from the Braves' side to get a bat, you're opening a whole new can of worms that's nearly impossible to fully examine.
I'm just saying that Lowe's value isn't what some in the past few days have made it out to be.
Regardless of the Free Agency situation, the market for an over-priced aging starter is not big enough to net any sort of legitimate power threat.
(Note: If the Braves DO acquire someone like Rivera, I'll eat my crow and dance in the streets. I'll also be calling team's local sheriff's department, because that's PURE ROBBERY.)
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