Expectations at the big league level were minimal as last April brought the start of the Major League Baseball season.
However, by the time the final out of their 25th game was made, the Houston Astros had transformed into a contender. The only question was, were they more the small-sample variety, or were they the kind of club built to sustain success through the grind of 162 regular-season games?
For about five months, they gave us a definitive answer—they were built for the long haul. Or so they made us think.
Over their last 18 games, the Astros have taken a dozen losses, including Wednesday night’s 14-3 pummeling at the hands of the Texas Rangers, the American League West’s new leading team after the Astros led by 5.5 games less than three weeks ago. Going back farther, Houston is five games under. 500 in its last 105, and now its hold on the second wild-card spot is at 1.5 games with the Minnesota Twins lurking.
"We're a good team. We've been a good team all year,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch told reporters after the latest loss. “There's a reason we've been hanging around here with the lead for the better part of this year. We'll be a good team again by the end of the year."
Astros about to drop to 50-55 since May 20. Out of playoffs in 'x' days?
— Joe Strauss (@JoeStrauss) September 17, 2015
The Astros’ four-game series against the Rangers started as a pivotal point in both teams’ seasons. The Rangers were well into their second-half onslaught that made them a surprise contender in the way the Astros were in April. Meanwhile, this was a chance for the struggling Astros, one game over .500 since the All-Star break, to make a stand and push back against their surging in-state rivals.
Doing so would have gone quite a ways in making people forget their recent slide, and it would have halted the panic setting in about this team devolving from a surprise member of the elite into one of the league’s biggest disappointments.
However, even with their two best starting pitchers slated in the first three games, the Astros did nothing to stop the flooding. The Rangers beat both Scott Kazmir (2.63 ERA) and Dallas Keuchel (2.22 ERA entering Wednesday), and their thumping of Keuchel started early Wednesday and ensured they would win the series and walk away from it in first place no matter what happens in Thursday’s finale.
"It's a confidence-booster," Rangers outfielder Delino DeShields told reporters. "We have been playing good against these guys all year. To come out like this, it says we're not going to lie down, we're here to the end, we're not going to make it easy."
Houston’s offense has taken some injury hits, and in the second half it has been in the middle of the pack, which is not much different than it was in the first half.
The rotation has been quite good throughout the season, but over the last couple of weeks its performance has dipped. The real pitching problem, though, has been in the bullpen. After the relievers were fourth in the league in Fangraphs WAR during the first half, they have dropped to sixth in the second half and 10th over the past couple of weeks.
That has helped lead to a 7-12 record in one-run games in the second half, although the team has not been great in that split all season, going 19-26 for the year.
"We've played some close games, and one-run losses or two-run losses are tough, especially this time of year," Hinch told reporters Tuesday night. "There's a lot of attention, a lot of 'want' factor. Our guys are pushing. We're in it. We're having a hard time getting to the finish line on the right side of these on a couple of occasions.”
But those numbers on their own aren’t enough to cause a complete collapse. The Rangers have done their part to facilitate it. Their rotation has gone from around the bottom of the league in the first half to very good in August based on ERA and in September based on Fangraphs WAR to help them to a 36-21 record since the All-Star break, the second most wins in the league in that time.
Some mild faltering by the Astros and a surge by the Rangers have given us a change at the top of the standings, and a significant shift in playoff probabilities as the Rangers have gone from a 4.7 percent chance of winning the division on Aug. 26 to a nearly 60 percent chance after Wednesday’s win, based on Fangraphs’ postseason projections.
Time is running out for the Astros to make good on their fairytale start, and missing the playoffs is now a realistic possibility with 16 games remaining, including three more against the Rangers.
“We’ll be ready to play,” Hinch told reporters. “Our world’s not coming to an end.”
No, it’s not. But their postseason chances are flirting with it.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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