One of the oldest adages in baseball is “You must be strong up the middle.” The Astros are far from strong in several key positions, such as catcher, center field, and starting pitching.
Manager Cecil Cooper did a marvelous job the second half of last year getting the Astros into playoff contention, especially with Carlos Lee missing the final seven weeks. But Houston needs a couple of its starters, beyond bell cow Roy Oswalt, to turn in strong seasons.
Can Michael Bourn develop into an everyday center fielder? Can any of the catchers hit enough to help the offense? The Astros will have to resolve some of these questions if they are going to challenge in a stronger-than-it-used-to-be National League Central Division.
ROTATION
The Astros’ starting pitching has amounted to Oswalt and a lot of praying ever since Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte fled back to the New York Yankees after 2006. Houston will start the ‘09 season in much the same conditions.
Veteran Brian Moehler moved from long relief to the rotation to help rescue last year’s team. Left-hander Wandy Rodriguez lowered his ERA by more than a point from 2007, but he still won only nine games, same as the year before.
The Astros got a good half season out of lefty Randy Wolf (6-2, 3.57), but decided not to re-sign him. Houston may have gotten a bargain in veteran left-hander Mike Hampton, a former Astro, to replace Randy Wolf.
Brandon Backe has yet to fulfill his potential and may be running out of opportunities. He hurts himself with too many walks and home runs. He allowed a league worst 36 dingers last season in 31 starts.
BULLPEN
General Manager Ed Wade pieced together a bullpen in 2008 that fit together far better than anyone had the right to imagine. After an early hiccup or two, closer Jose Valverde did a marvelous job, leading the National League with 44 saves.
The other roles were less clearly defined, but Geoff Geary, Doug Brocail, and Tim Byrdak turned in strong seasons. Choosing left-hander Wesley Wright from the Dodgers as a Rule V free agent couldn’t have turned out better.
He’s a little guy but he did a solid job, appearing in 71 games, and at 24, should get better. When the Yankees decided they didn’t need veteran LaTroy Hawkins anymore, the Astros traded for him. Hawkins gave up only one earned run in 24 appearances for Houston. Chris Sampson lost his job in the rotation and became the long man out of the 'pen.
MIDDLE INFIELD
Miguel Tejada built his reputation as an offensive shortstop, but he played better defense in ‘08 more than expected. The Astros would like to give Tejada, who will turn 35 in May, more rest.
He played in 158 games last season. But Mark Loretta, who backed up Tejada last year, is gone. Conversely, the Astros need to get more work out of second baseman Kazuo Matsui, who played in only 96 games last year because of injuries.
Wade signed Matsui partially for his speed and needs more than 37 walks and 20 stolen bases out of him. Veteran Geoff Blum can play second to rest Matsui.
Houston must decide on a backup for Tejada; rookies Edwin Maysonet and Tommy Manzella are two candidates.
CORNERS
Third baseman Ty Wigginton turned in his best full season in the majors last year (.285, 23 HRS), but the Astros decided his price tag would be too high for 2009 and didn’t offer him arbitration.
Blum took over at third last season after Wigginton moved to left field in August to replace the injured Lee. Blum will probably start, with veteran Aaron Boone brought in to share the position, unless Chris Johnson can make a successful jump from Double-A.
First baseman Lance Berkman is simple one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s a career .302 hitter and is underrated defensively.
He made his fifth All-Star appearance last year and, with Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell retired, is the face of the franchise. He was named National League Player of the Month for May when he hit .471 with nine home runs and 22 RBI.
OUTFIELD
Lee was on his way to a career year when he was hit by a pitch on his left hand Aug. 9, ending his season. Lee figured to end up with about 40 homers and 130 RBIS. Center field is the question mark.
Bourn arrived in the Brad Lidge trade last year to play center and bat leadoff. He proved he could play a superb center field but was a disappointment at the plate, hitting a mere .229. He stole 41 bases but could have had many more if his on-base percentage hadn’t been a measly .288.
He doesn’t hit better than last year, veteran Darin Erstad will be playing more often in center. Hunter Pence started in center in 2007 and proved he belonged in right field instead. He made a successful transition last year defensively but was inconsistent at the plate.
With his combination of power and speed (he runs out every ground ball), he’s a better hitter than his .269 average last season. He struck out too often last year.
CATCHERS
Poor-hitting catchers are becoming an Astros tradition. This could chance with the recent addition of Ivan Rodriguez to the roster. He will more than likely start the majority of the games behind the plate with Humberto Quintero and Brad Ausmus serving as the backup role.
Brad Ausmus cracked the .250 barrier only once in the last six seasons. But Ausmus made up for his lack of hitting by doing an outstanding job managing the pitching staff and calling the game. Neither Humberto Quintero, who boasts a strong arm, nor J.R. Towles has proven himself as a hitter.
Towles showed flashes in his September 2007 call-up but flopped last year when given the starting job to begin the season. Quintero is a career .230 hitter.
BENCH
The Astros had a superb bench last year with the veteran trio of Erstad, Blum and Loretta. Erstad and Blum could both end up in the starting lineup this year, and the Astros let Loretta get away, which could be a mistake.
They signed 32-year-old Jason Michaels, who can play all three outfield positions, as the fifth outfielder. Boone brings experience but doesn’t have the versatility defensively of Blum and Loretta, who could also play shortstop.
A rookie, possibly Maysonet, could very well be the sixth infielder.
MANAGEMENT
Wade, in his first season as Houston’s general manager, made three major trades last offseason. Two of them worked out very well: the acquisition of Tejada from Baltimore and Valverde from Arizona.
But the trade of Lidge, who helped Philadelphia win the World Series, turned sour considering what the Astros got in return, though Geary had a good year out of the bullpen.
Owner Drayton McLane likes to keep the payrool reasonable, and that prevented Wade from making any major deals this offseason, such as going after Jake Peavy or any of the high-priced starters on the market.
Instead, Wade brought in veterans on the cheap.
FINAL ANALYSIS
Even with Lee healthy for the whole season, the Astros still have to many holes in their lineup offensively, particularly at catcher and center field. Bourn’s speed is useless if he can get on base.
That would make Matsui the leadoff hitter. Similar to Bourn, he doesn’t walk often enough. The seven, eight, and nine spots in the batting order appears to be pretty weak.
Houston needs someone after Oswalt to become a solid No. 2 starter and win 15 games. The rest of the rotation is a crapshoot. No matter how well the bullpen pitches, it can’t win many games pitching from behind.
The Astros will defiantly need some breaks, and major contributions by veterans such as Erstad, Blum and Hampton to make the playoffs.
Carter’s Projected Astros Lineup
2B Kazuo Matsui
SS Miguel Tejada
1B Lance Berkman
LF Carlos Lee
RF Hunter Pence
3B Geoff Blum
CF Michael Bourn
C Ivan Rodriguez
(Starting Pitcher batting ninth, of course)
Bench
IF Aaron Boone
IF Edwin Maysonet
OF Darin Erstad
OF Jason Michaels
C Humberto Quintero
C J.R. Towles
Rotation
RH Roy Oswalt
RH Brian Moehler
LH Wandy Rodriguez
RH Brandon Backe
LF Mike Hampton
Bullpen
RH Jose Valverde (Closer)
RH LaTroy Hawkins
RH Geoff Geary
LH Wesley Wright
RH Doug Brocail
LH Tim Byrdak
RH Chris Sampson
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