We're now less than 90 days away from Opening Day of the 2016 Major League Baseball season, and among the things that seem certain right now is this:
The AL East is pretty loaded.
This was going to be the case even if the division didn't make any new additions. Some of the players pegged to return in 2016 were reigning American League MVP Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Masahiro Tanaka, Chris Archer, Evan Longoria, Adam Jones and Manny Machado. Behold that list. It's quite a list.
But thanks to the offseason, there's now even more talent in the AL East. David Price, Matt Wieters and Darren O'Day chose to stick around, and the new arrivals include Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith and Starlin Castro. Behold this list. It's also quite a list.
This raises the question of how the five clubs in the AL East stack up heading into 2016. To answer that, there's only one thing we can do: a good, old-fashioned power ranking.
1. Boston Red Sox
Key Losses: Wade Miley, Justin Masterson, Craig Breslow, Rich Hill
Key Additions: David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith, Chris Young, Roenis Elias
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Sometimes a guy just has to stick to his guns. I predicted the Red Sox to be the 2016 AL East champs twice already, and now is no time to budge.
The Red Sox are coming off a 78-84 record in 2015 that put them in last place in the AL East for the third time in four years. But it's worth noting that they finished the season on a positive note.
They went 34-26 in their final 60 games, mostly thanks to "Big Papi" continuing to defy Father Time and youngsters like Betts, Bogaerts and Blake Swihart all living up to their potential. The four of them make for a good foundation on offense, pointing to a potentially elite run-scoring unit if Dustin Pedroia can stay healthy and Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval can be something more than, well, terrible.
By the end of 2015, the only thing the Red Sox were lacking was impact pitching. Sure enough, that's what they put in their sights this winter.
Priority No. 1 for new Red Sox boss Dave Dombrowski was finding an ace, and he got his man when he inked Price to a $217 million contract. He's coming off his second American League ERA title in four years, and he, indeed, wants to be the guy that Boston's rotation has been lacking.
“I want to pitch deep into ballgames,” Price said in December, via Julian Benbow of the Boston Globe. “That’s something I definitely take a lot of pride in. I want to try to give that bullpen a day off. And when I’m not pitching, I’m there for not only my other teammates, but all the other starters and all the other pitchers."
Of course, Price can't pitch every day. And after him, the Red Sox don't have an obvious No. 2 starter. On days Price isn't pitching, the Red Sox figure to lean heavily on their bullpen.
That shouldn't be a problem, though. Kimbrel and Smith are joining Koji Uehara to form what should be a dominant bullpen trio. Shortening games has been a problem for the Red Sox relievers in the last two years, but that shouldn't be the case in 2016.
Add it all up, and FanGraphs' WAR projections for 2016 has Boston pegged, not just as the best team in the AL East, but as the best team in the entire American League. And though the WAR projections made similar claims in 2014 and 2015, the difference this time is that the Red Sox are going into 2016 with a well-balanced roster. They have question marks, sure, but no glaring weaknesses.
Now as for who could give the Red Sox a run for their money, let's talk about the...
2. Toronto Blue Jays
Key Losses: David Price, Mark Buehrle, Mark Lowe, LaTroy Hawkins, Liam Hendricks, Dioner Navarro
Key Additions: Marco Estrada, Jesse Chavez, J.A. Happ, Josh Thole, Darwin Barney
The Blue Jays are coming off a 93-win season that netted them their first AL East title and trip to the postseason since 1993. Looking ahead to 2016, they're returning many of the players that made it happen.
That includes virtually everyone in a lineup that was elite both offensively and defensively. Mainly thanks to an all-time awesome trio of sluggers in Donaldson, Bautista and Encarnacion, the Blue Jays offense blew away the rest of MLB with a .797 OPS. Per Baseball Prospectus, Toronto's defense was also No. 1 in efficiency.
Things could be even better for Toronto's lineup in 2016. The Blue Jays will have a full season of Tulowitzki, for one, and a healthy Michael Saunders could be one of the division's most important depth pieces. That's why it's believable that Blue Jays batters could lead the AL in WAR, as FanGraphs projects.
The question, of course, is if the Blue Jays are going to pitch enough.
'Tis, indeed, a good question. You'll recall that Toronto's pitching was barely good enough in support of its offense in the first half of 2015, when the Blue Jays went 45-46 despite all of their heavy hitting. It wasn't until after Price, Lowe and others arrived in the second half that things finally stabilized.
Alas, Price and Lowe are gone now. So it's Buehrle, who was at least a source of solid innings. On paper, it looks like Toronto's pitching has taken a step back.
But it may not be too big of a step. With a 3.31 ERA in 30 major league appearances and an impressive arsenal of pitches, Marcus Stroman may be just the guy to fill Price's shoes. And though the foursome of Estrada, R.A. Dickey, Happ and Chavez doesn't look great, it won't necessarily need to be great.
That's partially because of what the Blue Jays figure to do on offense and defense and partially because their bullpen still looks strong. Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez have overpowering stuff for the late innings, and Brett Cecil is one of the better lefties around.
The last time we saw the Blue Jays in the regular season, they were going 40-18 after August 1. It's unlikely that in 2016 they'll pick up where they left off last year, but they should do enough to prove their rise to relevance was no one-hit wonder.
Meanwhile, in the Bronx...
3. New York Yankees
Key Losses: Stephen Drew, J.R. Murphy, Chris Young, Adam Warren, Justin Wilson
Key Additions: Starlin Castro, Aroldis Chapman, Aaron Hicks
After missing out on October for two straight years, the Bombers made it back to the postseason in 2015 on the strength of an 87-win season. The downside? Their stay in October lasted only one game, losing to Houston in the wild-card game.
If that seems like ancient history by now, it may be because everyone is still on a high from the Yankees pulling off one of the most shocking moves of the offseason. They gave up mere spare parts to acquire Aroldis Chapman, one of the game's most overpowering relievers.
Granted, the worry now is that Chapman will be suspended for a portion of 2016 as a result of the alleged domestic violence incident that Yahoo Sports reported on during the winter meetings.
But when the flamethrowing lefty is able to suit up, he's going to combine with Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller to form a stupidly strong late-inning relief trio. They led all MLB relievers in strikeout rate over the last two seasons, so the three of them being in the same bullpen is absurd.
Thing is, though, this may not matter in the grand scheme of things.
As Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs pointed out, it will be hard for the Yankees bullpen to be any better in 2016 than it was in 2015. It was responsible for the Yankees going 66-3 when leading after six and 73-2 when leading after seven. It'll be nigh impossible to improve on those performances.
As such, the Yankees contending in 2016 will come down to what else they can do. And that's where there are all sorts of question marks.
With Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner up top and A-Rod, Teixeira, Castro, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran in the middle, the Yankees lineup could be a well-balanced dynamo. But given the age and consistency questions lingering over those names, it could also be the decidedly "meh" unit that it was in the final two months of 2015.
With Tanaka leading the charge followed by the talented arms belonging to Luis Severino, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda, the Yankees' rotation could also be a major strength. But there are health and consistency questions here, too, as well as experience concerns regarding Severino.
This time last year, the general opinion of the Yankees was that they weren't bad, but they would need much to go right to be good. Looking at them now, it's easy to have the same feeling. This is a team that looks destined for 85 wins, with large margins for error on either side.
Fortunately, the Yankees may not face much pressure from the...
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Key Losses: Nathan Karns, Asdrubal Cabrera, Joey Butler, Daniel Nava, John Jaso
Key Additions: Brad Miller, Logan Morrison, Danny Farquhar, Hank Conger
The Rays had a share of first place in the AL East as late as June 30 in 2015 but then fell flat on their way to an 80-82 record. And from what they've done this winter, their chances of doing better in 2016 seem...mild. At best.
The Rays should at least pitch well in 2016. They finished fourth in the AL in ERA in 2015 and are returning most of the guys who made that happen. Archer pitched even better in 2015 than his 3.23 ERA indicates, and he's backed by Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Erasmo Ramirez and a healthy Matt Moore.
The Rays also figure to have a solid bullpen. Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee are two incumbents with swing-and-miss stuff, and Farquhar could give the Rays a third swing-and-miss reliever.
But while pitching is nice, it will only be good for so much if the Rays' offense can't improve on last year's showing. Even a strong second half couldn't stop them from finishing 11th in the AL in OPS and 14th in the AL in runs, and no serious upgrades have been made this winter.
Miller has a solid bat, yes, but he's replacing Cabrera. Morrison is also solid, but not as much as a healthy Jaso. Conger is a good receiver behind the dish, but he's not much of a hitter. Elsewhere, the Rays have to worry about Logan Forsythe regressing to the mean and Longoria continuing his decline.
All things considered, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com is right about the Rays' single biggest need being an impact bat. There's still time for them to find one, but for now it looks like they're not going to hit enough to ride their strong pitching to the top of the division.
But, hey, at least the Rays look better off than the...
5. Baltimore Orioles
Key Losses: Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen, Steve Pearce, Gerardo Parra
Key Additions: Matt Wieters, Darren O'Day, Mark Trumbo
The Orioles were neither bad nor good in 2015. They were perfectly mediocre, going 81-81.
Now FanGraphs projects them as the worst team in the American League. That's likely a bit harsh, but there is some truth to the notion that the Orioles have taken a sizable step backward.
To even go as far as 81-81 in 2015, the Orioles had to rely on a fairly simple formula: just enough pitching (4.05 ERA) and a lot of home runs (217). This offseason, that formula has been compromised.
Though these two free agents are not technically gone just yet, the O's rotation is missing Chen and its offense is missing Davis. With a 3.34 ERA in 191.1 innings, Chen was their best pitcher in 2015. Davis was their best hitter, with a .923 OPS and an MLB-high 47 home runs.
Without them, Baltimore's rotation and offense look noticeably thin. There's not nearly enough behind Chris Tillman in the former, and things are weak outside Machado and Jones in the latter. With O'Day rejoining Brian Matusz, Brad Brach and Zach Britton, Baltimore's bullpen looks like the team's only real strength.
For now, anyway. ESPN.com's Buster Olney hints that they may be the one team in the AL East that still has plenty of shopping to do:
One can see a situation in which the Orioles re-sign Davis, bring in another starter and perhaps add some outfield depth. If they can do these things, they'll look a lot better.
But for the time being, well, all of the above is how the division is shaping up with Opening Day just there in the distance. It's been a busy winter in the AL East, and that should lead to few dull moments when the games finally arrive.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments