Game 4 of the NLCS could be the last chance for the upstart Chicago Cubs and manager Joe Maddon.
But there is hope, at least for this game, and it has to do with the offense.
With some shuffling and adjustments, most of which Maddon has already made, here are ways that the Cubs can see a Game 5. (And it doesn't involve the "Back to the Future II" prophecy or Henry Rowengartner.)
For one, which Maddon has already done, he should adjust his lineup to face Mets lefty Steven Matz.
According to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com, Maddon moved the right-handed Jorge Soler up to second in the order, moved Javier Baez to seventh and started David Ross at catcher over Miguel Montero.
Montero had batted 2-for-20 this postseason and is 1-for-7 in the NLCS, according to Muskat.
The Cubs' adjusted lineup comes into Game 4 against the New York Mets' worst pitcher in their postseason rotation. (Relatively speaking. It's a compliment to the Mets staff overall.)
Matz, whose first playoff start came in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, gave up three runs on six hits and had four strikeouts over five innings with a WHIP of 1.60.
Conversely, Jason Hammel, the Cubs' Game 4 NLCS starter, has a WHIP of 2.00 in the postseason with a 6.00 ERA. That's why the Cubs will have to rely on their bats.
Matz is hittable, and the Cubs have gorged on left-handed pitching this postseason, garnering a slash line of .276/.344/.724.
Second, the Cubs need to have better at-bats to open up innings and, obviously, throughout the game.
According to ESPN Stats & Info., the Cubs have not registered one hit to start an inning in the NLCS. In fact, they've only been on a base twice, and it was due to Anthony Rizzo in Game 1.
The Cubs have scored 21 of their 29 runs on 15 home runs this postseason, according to Muskat.
But the lineup has to manufacture runs outside of the long ball. Look at where that strategy has gotten Toronto. Now look at the Royals, who don't rely on home runs.
The Royals have hit 12 home runs this postseason—good for second place—but that's on 86 hits. The Cubs have 15 home runs on just 52 hits.
Third, Maddon has to simply stay the course. His team doesn't lack confidence despite the odds, so why should they try to drastically change the collective mindset?
And who better to testify to the Cubs' chances than president of baseball operations Theo Epstein?
"It's been done before, and we can do it," said Epstein via Muskat. "Nine different times this year we've won four or more games in a row. We'll just do it a 10th time, one at a time."
Epstein was the general manager of the 2004 Boston Red Sox, the only team to ever win four straight after losing the first three games.
And it happening 11 years ago is something that's keeping the team's hopes afloat.
Said Cubs left fielder Kyle Schwarber:
Said Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo:
Look, coming back from a 3-0 series deficit has happened only once, but it has happened. It is possible. Now whether the Cubs hitters make do on their insistence that everyone is confident remains to be seen. It's fair to be tired of these "confidence" comments.
Fourth, and most importantly, the Cubs have to pray during every Daniel Murphy at-bat. The man (is he still just a man?) has home runs in five straight games and a slash line of .364/.382/.939 in the postseason.
And, against right-handed pitching, Murphy's slash line is .375/.412/1.000. (Gulp.)
Game 4 against Matz is the best shot for the Cubs to extend the series to at least five games. Unfortunately, it's their last shot, too.
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