The shake-up in Los Angeles has already started.
The Dodgers dropped the biggest, though hardly the most surprising, news of the day early Thursday morning when they and manager Don Mattingly mutually decided to separate. That is how the team has termed its parting with its manager, who was under contract through next season.
While this is a relatively significant happening for the Dodgers, it is far from their biggest decision as the offseason approaches for an organization entering its second winter under the direction of the Whiz Kid Dream Team—president Andrew Friedman, general manager Farhan Zaidi and senior VP of baseball operations Josh Byrnes, among others.
Zack Greinke’s pending and probable opt-out is easily the team’s biggest offseason event to this point. He is one of the game’s true aces and helped carry the Dodgers to a third consecutive National League West title in 2015 with arguably the best season of his stellar career.
Greinke has until the third day after the World Series to opt out of his current six-year, $147 million contract, of which he just completed his third season. He has $71 million remaining on the current deal, but he would get a significant raise—possibly more than 100 percent—on the open market. Team sources have told Bleacher Report they fully expect Greinke to become a free agent via that clause, and that belief has been reported by other sources as well.
How Greinke’s negotiations with the Dodgers, and other teams, play out over the next couple of months will have a seismic effect on the free-agent market and the Dodgers’ future.
"We'd love to keep him," Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez told reporters, including MLB.com’s Lyle Spencer, after the team’s Game 5 loss to the New York Mets in the NL Division Series. "He's a big part of this team. He's been incredible the whole time he's been here. We love him. We hope he opts to stay."
Because Greinke has been so incredible in his three seasons with the Dodgers, and because he is coming off a historic season—1.66 ERA, 19-3 record, 225 ERA+, 0.844 WHIP—his opt-out could not come at a better time. It is totally reasonable to expect Greinke to command a deal of five or six years, and something in the area of $150 million is not so far-fetched, even with the known risks that accompany signing a pitcher entering his age-32 season.
Greinke openly spoke about the Dodgers offering him the most money as the reason why he ended up with them prior to the 2013 season, so there is little reason to think he would not make his next decision based on money. If that is the case, it is hard to see any organization being able or willing to outbid the Dodgers, who know better than anyone what Greinke’s production, even as it starts to decline, means to a rotation. Then again, the Dodgers’ analytical front office knows the inherent drawbacks of being saddled with an aging and/or declining player who is owed gobs of dough.
Mattingly couldn't get out of the parking lot fast enough and it doesn't matter who manages in 2016 unless they resign Greinke. #Dodgers
— Paul Lo Duca (@paulloduca16) October 22, 2015
If Greinke were willing to sign a shorter deal, say for four years, for less overall money, say $110 million for an average annual value of $27.5 million, the Dodgers might be fine with sliding that contract across the table—the AAV of that deal would be more than a six-year, $150 million one ($25 million). Also, Greinke, not known to hold his tongue or lie, thinks quite highly of his current organization.
"It's got to be the best franchise in the game, I would think," Greinke told reporters the night the team’s season ended. "They're in a great situation."
But what if Greinke wants something new? What if the Dodgers decide Greinke’s age and market value aren’t worth their nine figures? Then what?
Well, the Dodgers have plenty of other options.
This offseason’s free-agent market is loaded with starting pitching, most notably David Price. The problem with Price is that he could command around $200 million despite his shaky postseason performances, and the Dodgers already have an ace with a contract exceeding that mark in Clayton Kershaw. If the Dodgers were willing to go that route with Price, they might as well re-up with Greinke—signing both is highly unlikely, though not totally out of the question for a team that annually draws more than 3 million fans and has one of the largest television rights deals in the game.
If not Price or Greinke, then the Dodgers could pick from the likes of Johnny Cueto or Jordan Zimmermann. And if they want to sign another, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samrardzija, Mike Leake and Yovani Gallardo are possibilities.
What is known for sure is that the Dodgers cannot and will not sit idle. They already parted with Mattingly, and parting with Greinke without replacing his production would be a step in the wrong direction, even with the underrated Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy expected back in the rotation at some point next season and Alex Wood expected to occupy a spot.
The Dodgers will not win with Kershaw and a cast of backup singers. They need another co-ace to pair with him. Who that might be all depends on how the market looks in about a month, and by being one of the heavy hitters, the Dodgers are likely to help shape it by attacking either Greinke or Price, or both or neither.
Because of their money, current standing and future outlook, the decision is theirs. And it will be their most critical of this offseason.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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