James Shields’ downward trend started two Octobers ago.
During the 2014 Kansas City Royals playoff run, Shields, the supposed ace of the staff, had a 6.12 ERA in 25 innings. That severely dropped his stock going into last offseason, and he ended up having to wait until days before spring training started before signing a four-year, $75 million contract with the San Diego Padres.
The disappointment continued into this season with Shields’ 3.91 ERA, 4.45 FIP and 33 home runs allowed while making half his starts in Petco Park, historically a severe pitcher’s park. Partly because of those numbers, along with the $65 million still owed to him over the next three seasons—that includes a $2 million buyout—and the Padres’ desire to shed big contracts, Shields is now on the trading block.
While the contract coupled with Shields’ recent production looks ugly at a glance, the current market for starting pitchers, even the lower-tier arms, has the soon-to-be 34-year-old Shields looking more and more attractive to teams seeking rotation help. Free-agent pitchers have their average annual values rising, and those aces being rumored in trades are priced so high they are virtually unavailable.
This could put Shields, an arm that has topped 200 innings in each of the last nine seasons, on several radars. And because of his down 2015, he could end up being a Comeback Player of the Year contender next year.
Sources: #Padres drawing significant interest in Ross, Cashner, Shields. Not surprising, considering FA prices.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 7, 2015
The open market has seen two legitimate aces sign for well more than $200 million, a pitcher with a 4.96 ERA last season and a 4.09 career ERA in Jeff Samardzija sign for $90 million and the Toronto Blue Jays give J.A. Happ and his career 4.13 ERA $36 million over three years despite him being 33.
That makes Shields a touch more attractive as a rotation filler whose average annual salary is at $18.75 million and on par with the likes of Rick Porcello ($20 million in 2016) and Homer Bailey ($18 million), two pitchers who had ERAs near or above 5.00 in 2015, respectively.
The problem could lie with the Padres, though. While teams might have interest in Shields, the organization seems to not understand his diminished value, nor their opportunity to trade him and get out from some of the money owed. The team, according to ESPN’s Jayson Stark, will not kick in any money in a trade and wants at the very least a young shortstop in return. If that is the case, expect the rumors on Shields to stay calm because that is an unrealistic asking price for a declining pitcher.
Teams that have spoken with the Padres about James Shields say they're not looking to eat money & hope to get a young SS back (& more)
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 3, 2015
Then there is how other teams view Shields as a pitcher; never mind his salary. Simply stated, they believe he is getting worse.
In 2015, Shields’ fastball was down more than a mile per hour from last season, and his cutter was down nearly a mile per hour, according to FanGraphs. That was likely a factor in opponents having a .327 OBP, .450 slugging percentage and .776 OPS against him. All of those numbers are the highest for Shields since 2010, when he had a 5.18 ERA and he established himself as a front-line starter a season before.
Another significant red flag is Shields’ fledgling command. His 81 walks obliterated his previous career high by 13. And despite him posting a career-high 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings, his strikeout-to-walk ratio sank to a career-low 2.67—he had a career-high 4.09 mark in that category in 2014.
If those trends continue, Shields is not likely to opt out of his deal after next season, which he can do and forfeit $44 million the following two years. Had Shields pitched well enough to make him an opt-out candidate after next season, his value would be higher.
Rival execs say Shields’ velocity and stuff in decline. Also has opt-out after 2016, which could complicate talks, as @dennislin said.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 4, 2015
Even with all that working against Shields’ value and against an acquiring team getting a positive return on its investment, there is value here. Not a lot of it comes from Shields himself, other than him being a durable, innings-eating arm who may or may not have another bounce-back season in him. Instead, much of it comes from the current market.
Costs remain high for impact arms in free agency and on the trade market, which is probably why Padres general manager A.J. Preller has set Shields’ price so high, aside from him not wanting to totally eat his first significant signing in the GM’s chair.
The bottom line is nobody is going to give the Padres touted prospects and take on all of the money owed to Shields. One or the other would go a long way in propelling talks forward, but as of now there has been no confirmation on any team actively pursuing Shields, who turns 34 in a couple of weeks.
If the Padres and Preller swallow some of the contract and get out from at least the majority of the money on the books, they could likely trade Shields. And if a team could get him for cheaper than $65 million for the next few seasons, he could end up being an asset and not a liability going forward.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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