Through a season full of injuries and, at times, uncertainty, Jason Heyward was a constant.
Playing in his first season with a new team loaded with World Series expectations, coming off a relatively down year and a summer and fall away from his first foray into free agency, Heyward became one of the St. Louis Cardinals’ most dependable and best players. He starred for the club with the bat, was a defensive marvel in right field and ended up as one of the game’s best baserunners.
The Cardinals won 100 games this season with absolutely outstanding pitching and possibly the best defense in the majors. Their offense was just so-so, but that made Heyward’s presence in the lineup all the more crucial.
If the Cardinals capture another National League pennant this month, it will be done with their pitching. However, considering the opposing pitching the team will face in a loaded side of the bracket, Heyward will play a vital role in the team’s postseason success, and that will go a long way in determining his value on the open market this winter.
The Cardinals acquired Heyward in a trade with the Atlanta Braves, where he entered the big leagues with massive potential and carrying the hopes of the franchise on his broad shoulders, though he never really lived up to any of it. The Cardinals gave up promising starting pitcher Shelby Miller, who still had four years of team control at the time of the deal, but the sudden and tragic death of right-field prospect Oscar Taveras prompted the Cardinals to move on Heyward.
He immediately endeared himself to his new club by racking three hits, two of them doubles, on Opening Day. Things tumbled downward from there, and the now-26-year-old finished the first month of the season batting .217/.261/.349 with a putrid .611 OPS.
Heyward clearly picked up the pace after April, and his OBP never dipped below .340 in any month after that. His OPS was never lower than .783, peaking at .881 during a torrid June. He finished with a .293/.359/.439 slash line, .797 OPS and 117 OPS+. He also ended up being a huge plus on the bases, accumulating a 7.0 BsR total, according to FanGraphs.
"Just trying to keep it simple, keep it simple," Heyward told reporters last month. "There are good stretches, bad stretches. You just try to minimize all of them regardless of what happens. Each at-bat, put it behind you and go attack the next one."
Heyward has done a decent job of attacking in this postseason. Through Monday night’s Game 3 loss to the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, Heyward is 4-for-12, and he hit a home run and a double in that third, both coming against baseball’s Second Coming, Jake Arrieta.
Heyward came into this playoff series with three others to his name. In the small sample of 40 plate appearances, he has produced a dismal .154/.175/.256 slash line, two extra-base hits and 16 strikeouts to his one walk.
Even with that on the back of his card, Heyward can use a strong playoff performance this fall to juice up his value on the free-agent market this offseason. And recent history proves it is possible with Pablo Sandoval landing a ridiculous $95 million for five years of declining work, much of it based off a couple of outstanding playoff runs.
Heyward does not and will not have the body issues Sandoval has, and because he will not turn 27 until next August, a deal well into the ninth figure is absolutely plausible given the kind of all-around player he’s become.
Heyward is also coming off a season in which he was worth 6.5 wins above replacement, via Baseball-Reference.com, and 6.0, via FanGraphs WAR. Both marks put him in the NL’s top 10.
For comparison’s sake, Heyward is coming off a better season going into free agency than Jacoby Ellsbury did after the 2013 season, when he had a 5.7 B-R WAR and a 5.6 fWAR. Ellsbury, going into his age-30 season, landed a seven-year, $153 million contract from the New York Yankees.
Heyward’s season, and possibly his postseason, has most likely priced him out of the Cardinals’ range. The Yankees and Boston Red Sox won’t be in the market to drive up Heyward’s price, but as we’ve seen with plenty of other players in recent offseasons, it only takes one team willing to unload the armored truck.
Jason Heyward's 2015 Stats .293 AVG .359 OBP .439 SLG .797 OPS 13 HR 60 RBI 23 SB 33 2B 4 3B 1.9 DWAR 6.5 WAR Worth of a BIG contract?
— The Birds On The Bat (@BirdsOnTheBat13) October 5, 2015
The Cardinals are not built around Heyward, so watching him walk in the offseason won’t be entirely devastating. However, for the time they do have his services, it is imperative Heyward be an anchor in the lineup if the organization is going to qualify for its 24th World Series.
If Heyward can be that, a championship and a mega-contract will be within his reach.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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