ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting on Wednesday that the St. Louis Cardinals' offer to free agent outfielder Matt Holliday is in excess of $100 million.
In the wake of Jason Bay agreeing to a four-year deal worth $66 million with the Mets ($17 million per), it's hard to imagine another team throwing that kind of coin at Holliday.
The future implications of the Cardinals offering Holliday that type of money could be staggering in St. Louis, considering they've been working on an uber-extension with Albert Pujols for some time now. If relativity means anything, and Pujols' agent is worth anything, then what is he worth if Holliday gets $16-18 million per season? We're talking about ARod money.
In 2009, the Cardinals' top salary was Pujols' $16 million, and he has two more years (with 2011 being a club option year) at that same figure. If the Olney report is correct, then Holliday would have a higher salary than arguably the best player in all of baseball.
Last year, St. Louis won the division with a payroll just over $88 million; the Cubs, meanwhile, spent over $134 million in 2009 and already have 10 players under contract making above $10 million next season.
And yet the Cubs still have a roster with a lot of questions. My counterpart, Matt Trueblood, wrote a nice bio on Ted Lilly recently . He projects Lilly to make 30 starts, but that number is probably too high, considering Lilly probably won't join the rotation until May after a November shoulder surgery.
The Cubs also let Rich Harden walk away as a free agent (he signed a one-year, $7.5 million deal with the Rangers). If you subtract Harden and figure that Lilly will miss at least the first month of the season, you're looking at Hendry needing to come up with two starting pitchers to begin the 2010 campaign.
So far, he's added only Carlos Silva (and his ridiculous contract) in exchange for Milton Bradley. If Hendry thinks Silva will make an impact on the rotation, he's probably right. The problem, though, is that it will likely be a negative one.
At the same time, the Cubs have a hole at the back end of their rotation, and they also lack a legitimate center fielder. There have been rumors about a three-team deal that would end with the Cubs receiving Jacoby Ellsbury from Boston at a cost of Ryan Theriot and prospects, but I see that having about as good a chance as a snowball in hell.
Meanwhile, Boston has already taken Hendry favorite Mike Cameron off the market, and the stock of decent outfielders has disappeared. The Cubs' marketing staff will try to sell Cubs fans on the idea of Marlon Byrd, Scott Podsednik, or Rick Ankiel over the coming weeks, but none of these players is an everyday, championship-caliber center fielder.
If someone wants to tell me that Podsednik is, that's fine; he played a mediocre left field for the White Sox and was yanked for a defensive replacement as often as he stole second base last year.
Ankiel has good range and a cannon for an arm, but he has injury concerns and hasn't been consistent at the plate yet in his career.
Byrd is a DH that hopes to get paid to play outfield; sound like Milton Bradley? At least the Cubs wouldn't have to pay for a team psychologist if Byrd is added to the payroll. Bringing in Byrd would mean Kosuke Fukudome would have to go back to center, which isn't ideal, either.
The Cubs' bullpen is also still a question mark.
Hendry gave John Grabow a two-year deal quickly after the season ended, and might regret it. Nothing about Grabow's past indicates he's worth the $7.5 million he'll be paid over the next two years, but overpaying players past their prime has been a hallmark of Hendry's recent winters.
So while the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be making a calculated risk by offering Holliday a huge deal, they have a great fanbase and can afford to add some payroll if it means protecting the game's best hitter.
The Cubs, meanwhile, are desperately trying to shed payroll as the new ownership group tries to break through the concrete ceiling keeping the Cubs from winning the World Series. Hendry has saddled the team with so many awful contracts (see Soriano, Alfonso) that he's handcuffed by his existing obligations.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman once said that winning begets winning, which creates income that allows for spending. Unfortunately, Hendry has followed a different path: hoping that marketing-created spending would somehow create winning.
But then again, it could be worse. We could still be dealing with Bradley, or have to worry about Lovie Smith or Vinny Del Negro.
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