John Lannan is a pitcher who has garnered some attention the past two seasons due to some impressive ERAs, but that is where the positives come to an abrupt end.
Is this one "plus" a reason to consider taking the gamble on him? I certainly don’t think so, and here’s why…
First off, his 2009 statistics:
9 Wins
206.1 Innings
3.88 ERA
1.35 WHIP
89 Strikeouts (3.88 K/9)
68 Walks (2.97 BB/9)
.276 BABIP
Things You Need To Know:
- Over 326.0 innings in the minor leagues, his K/9 was 6.3. In 2008, over 182.0 Major League innings, he posted a K/9 of 5.8. Is there upside from ‘09? Well, there better be, but he’s never going to be a stud option in that department.
- The BABIP was below average to begin with, and yet, he still was not impressive in the WHIP department. If his luck turns, with the lack of strikeouts, his WHIP is going to be disastrous.
- He does a good job of generating groundballs (52.7% for his career), which is something that you look for, but it’s certainly not enough to overcome some of the other numbers.
- While it is the Nationals that he’s pitching for, you would like to see a little bit more success in the win department. Only nine Ws in each of the past two seasons? I know, to an extent, he doesn’t have that much control over this given the state of the Nationals' bullpen the past few seasons, but he needs to be doing more than that to intrigue me. Granted, they have worked on their bullpen and should win a few more games this season, but they are still the Nationals.
- He is young, at 25 years old. Is that really how desperate we have gone to find positives? Just because he’s young doesn’t mean he’s going to suddenly put things together. Over his minor league career, he had a 3.89 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Unfortunately, at this point, he likely is just what he’s shown.
2010 Projection:
190.0 IP, 10 W, 4.12 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 105 K (4.97 K/9), 65 BB (3.08 BB/9)
Conclusion:
He’s a borderline top-100 pitcher for me.
Where’s the potential upside?
There’s no strikeout potential. He doesn’t win many games. He’s not impressive in ERA or WHIP. If I end up with him on my team, it’s going to be as a last resort, and trust me, I’ll be extremely disappointed.
What are your thoughts on Lannan? Is there any reason to be drafting him? If so, where is the potential upside?
If you would like to see a free preview of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5) now including a Top 50 Prospects for 2010 List, click here .
For more 2010 projections, click here . Among those we’ve already covered include:
- Butler, Billy
- Cain, Matt
- Cueto, Johnny
- Gutierrez, Franklin
- Hamels, Cole
- Hamilton, Josh
- Kershaw, Clayton
- Martin, Russell
- Morneau, Justin
- Peralta, Jhonny
- Ramirez, Alexei
- Sizemore, Grady
- Vazquez, Javier
- Votto, Joey
- Youkilis, Kevin
- Young, Michael
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