Both Max Scherzer and Jon Lester will command big-money contracts this upcoming offseason.
But because this is the offseason, it's only natural to compare the two most coveted free agents in the 2015 class.
Although each pitcher is regarded as a top-tier starter, the similarities end there. Scherzer is a flame-throwing right-hander, capable of posting high strikeout totals any time he takes the hill. While Lester is no slouch when it comes to velocity, the southpaw mostly depends on heavy movement to induce weak contact on the ground.
2014 produced another stellar chapter in the careers of the two studs. Lester went 16-11 in 32 starts, posting a career low 2.46 ERA. Scherzer was equally impressive, winning 18 games and striking out over 10 per nine innings.
But who is the safer bet going forward?
Using a variety of advanced metrics gathered from FanGraphs, we can dig deeper into each pitcher's performances and come up with a fair comparison. However, instead of focusing on just one season of sample data, the stats used throughout the article took place over a three-year span from 2012-14.
Standard Statistics
On the surface, the two aces have posted similar numbers when it comes to typical pitching stats.
Age is often a critical factor when evaluating free agents, but in this case, both pitchers enter the market at 30 years of age.
Lester and Scherzer have also been able to remain relatively healthy over the past three seasons. You won't find two more durable guys in all of MLB, as each ranks in the top 10 in starts and top 11 in innings pitched since 2012.
Standard stats provide enough data for the casual observer to judge if a player is good or not, but they lack the necessary detail that allows for meaningful comparisons.
So let's move on to the more advanced metrics, starting with some rate statistics.
Rate Statistics
Strikeout rate and walk rate are two stats that a pitcher actually has control over.
Obviously, more strikeouts and fewer walks are the ultimate goal for any pitcher, but using a metric that measures on a nine-inning scale helps the stats become easier to understand.
Strikeout percentage and walk percentage are similar methods that factor how many strikeouts or walks a pitcher records in relation to batters faced.
Here's how Lester and Scherzer compare in this aspect:
As the numbers show, Scherzer is a strikeout machine. Over the last three seasons, only Yu Darvish ranks higher in K/9 and strikeout percentage. His ability to fan opposing hitters is Scherzer's biggest asset, as he can wiggle out of jams by allowing no contact.
Scherzer's knack for the strikeout is obviously aided by a blazing fastball. But Scherzer's average fastball velocity of 92.8 in 2014 was actually the lowest of his career. To counter this inevitable drop in velocity, his changeup usage increased to a career-high last season. Continued strikeout numbers with diminishing velocity and the continued improvement of his changeup bode well when projecting Scherzer's future production.
Need some evidence? How about Scherzer's nine-strikeout performance against the Twins in September? Check out the 33-second mark to see his changeup in action against Kennys Vargas:
For Lester, seven strikeouts a game is still impressive. The keys to this comparison are virtual dead-even walk statistics.
Scherzer is striking out nearly three more batters a game than Lester while walking an almost identical amount. This isn't a knock on Lester, but strikeouts are arguably the most translatable stat for a pitcher. With more strikeouts and similar walk totals, Scherzer bests Lester in this aspect of pitching.
To better understand the difference in strikeouts between the two aces, let's see how the stat impacts each starter's run prevention.
ERA Simulators
Now we're getting to the good stuff.
ERA has widely been regarded as one of the most important stats when evaluating a pitcher's performance.
The problem with ERA is that it is highly dependent on luck, sequencing and defense. Fielding Independent Pitching, Expected Fielding Independent Pitching and Skill-Interactive ERA have actually started to become more appropriate than ERA in recent years.
The below table shows the difference between Lester and Scherzer in ERA simulators:
Pretty convincing, right? Scherzer is better than Lester in every category and by significant margins.
To better explain FIP, here's a quote from FanGraphs:
FIP is a measurement of a pitcher's performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him, for example.
FIP focuses on the results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, HBP and home runs. Scherzer betters Lester in each of those stats, aiding his FIP supremacy.
SIERA and xFIP take that concept further. SIERA is especially useful at predicting future production, because it takes into account balls in play. As FanGraphs puts it, SIERA "attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs."
Any way you want to slice it, Scherzer's been better over the past three seasons at preventing runs from crossing the plate. FIP, xFIP and SIERA are the most accurate ERA simulators, and the data they provide are a great indicator of what the future holds.
The name of the game for a pitcher is keeping runs off the board. Once again, Scherzer is much more reliable in regard to run prevention.
Win Probability
With the advancement of modern-day statistics, players can now be given values representing how they individually affect their team's chances of victory.
If you've been paying attention up to this point, then you'll surely be able to guess which free-agent ace has impacted his team's success the most since 2012:
Win Probability Added captures how an individual affects his team's win expectancy. Not only has Scherzer been more important to his team than Lester since 2012, but the right-hander ranks fifth in WPA and third in pitching WAR in MLB during that time.
By analyzing the advanced metrics best suited to project going forward, it's clear that Scherzer has been the better pitcher over the past few seasons.
His strikeout numbers and run prevention statistics should lead you to believe his success is more sustainable than Lester's reliance on good defense and luck on balls in play.
Don't get me wrong—Lester is an elite starter in MLB. But when comparing him with Max Scherzer, there's really no question who the stud of this free-agent class is.
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