It's time to call a spade a spade with the state of Jonathan Papelbon: He either soon finds a way to get the "giddy-up" back on his fastball or his struggles on the mound will likely cost him his job during the 2011 season. With setup relievers Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks available, the team is unlikely to let Papelbon keep imploding like he did last year.
For some reason, many baseball observers avoid emphasizing that Papelbon's fortunes all ride on whether he can regain the late life to his fastball. Baseball reporters have danced around the subject. They've said it'd help if Papelbon can throw his split-fingered fastball or his slider more effectively in 2011. They've said he needs to improve his control.
But, for Papelbon, the key has always been the way his fastball "explodes" late as it nears the hitter.
For long stretches in 2009 and much of 2010, Papelbon's fastball lacked its old giddy-up. It was painful to watch many of his appearances last year. He'd often walk hitters and/or give up hits. He routinely got into long counts with hitters and would be forced to keep throwing strikes on 3-2 counts.
It was disturbing to watch so many hitters throughout opposing lineups have no trouble fouling off pitches from Papelbon in that situation. He simply couldn't throw his fastball by them anymore. His fastball was "straight" and quite hittable. He allowed more line drives, flyballs and "loud" outs than ever before.
What's troubling is that Papelbon's overall performance has been moving in the wrong direction since early in the 2009 season. He experienced some difficulties in some outings and said he was using a new, leg-driven motion to preserve his arm strength.
Later in 2009, Papelbon almost mysteriously rediscovered the giddy-up on his fastball for a while, but then, he pitched poorly in the playoffs vs. the Los Angeles Angels when he blew a save in Game 3 of the Angels' sweep of the Sox.
In 2010, Papelbon's appearances became less and less "clean." He often had to work hard to get by as he put men on base and wasn't dominant nearly as often as in prior years.
It's hard for Red Sox fans to absorb Papelbon's problems because he's been so damned good for most of his Red Sox tenure. He's the only closer in baseball with five consecutive seasons of 35 or more saves. Even last year, by far his worst, he still managed 37 saves. We grew spoiled early on with Papelbon. We expected him to keep recording those 1-2-3 saves with two strikeouts.
Do you remember the days when Papelbon could throw his fastball right down the middle and the league's best hitters often would swing and miss? I do.
It must be hard for Papelbon now to try to get his mechanics just right to maximize the velocity and late movement on his fastball when he knows it might simply not be there. He is more comfortable talking about his desire to throw his split-fingered fastball or slider more often in 2011 or his overall attitude or condition. He obviously doesn't want to say: "I'm afraid I've lost my best fastball for good."
In the early days of 2011 spring training, Papelbon, after an outing against the Florida Marlins, told a reporter he was pleased with the late life on his fastball. Yet, a few weeks later, a scout was quoted in a Boston Herald article saying the Red Sox "have to be concerned because he's (Papelbon) is not getting swings and misses and his stuff has not been elite."
I have not been able to see Papelbon pitch during spring training, but I know from reading about the hits and runs he's surrendered that his fastball must lack its critical late life. I think Red Sox fans will know very early in the season whether Papelbon has found his old heater. We'll see him increase his strikeouts, including those featuring swings and misses. We'll see him get his swagger back.
Unfortunately, for Papelbon, the odds are against him. Most closers do not remain in top form more than a few years. He has had a terrific run since 2006. The irony is that Papelbon has chosen to go to arbitration and sign one-year deals with hopes of becoming a free agent when the 2011 season ends and earning a big new contract. Now, Papelbon has to first rediscover this bread and butter pitch.
I hope, like all Red Sox fans, that Papelbon finds his old fastball. He's been one of the most exciting, colorful players on the team and I'd like to see him go out looking strong rather than struggling.
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