When the Nationals traded Emilio Bonifacio, P. J. Dean and Jake Smolinski to the Florida Marlins last winter for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham, a couple of things seemed certain.
First, Olsen would become the Nationals No. 2 pitcher; second, Josh Willingham would become a sorely needed offensive weapon for the team, likely in left field.
Over his career, after all, the 30-year-old has been a solid hitter. Since joining the Marlins in 2004, Willingham has averaged .266-25-85 over a 162 game season.
For a team that was just about dead-last in every significant offensive category last year, Willingham was a major upgrade.
But now it looks like he's not going to be a starter, at least so says Nationals.com beat writer Bill Ladson.
Even Willingham himself acknowledges that—for the moment, anyway—he may not have a position to play.
"If you look at our outfield, you have me, Adam Dunn, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns. Those are five guys who haven't sat on the bench during their careers," Willingham said. "Somebody is going to be sitting on the bench. It's going to happen unless [the Nationals] make a move. I never sat on the bench ever [for a full season]."
Though I'm surprised that this uncertainty remains this late into Spring Training, I understand it, though I really don't believe it.
So who starts and who sits (and more importantly, who gets traded)?
Adam Dunn has 10 million reasons to start for the Nationals in 2009, and though Elijah Dukes doesn't have the career bona fides of Dunn, he is most likely the better player. And Lastings Milledge, who cost the Nationals two starting players (Ryan Church and Brian Schneider), has too much talent and too much upside not start.
But that's not surprising.
Most of us assumed that Adam Dunn would start at first base, and not left field, allowing Josh Willingham the chance to play left.
None of us—well, almost none—thought that there would be a scenario in which Nick Johnson would be the team's starting first baseman in 2009.
And as good as he can be, he shouldn't be given that opportunity.
Forget for a moment that Nick Johnson has never played a major league season without ending up on the disabled list. Since he joined the Yankees in 2002, Johnson has been on the roster—and off the disabled list—for just 54 percent of his team's games.
Why would Mike Rizzo and Manny Acta think that 2009 would be any different?
But let's forget his injury prone nature for just a moment and consider his long-term value to the team.
Or lack thereof.
Desperately seeking stability for a highly unstable organization, then general manager Jim Bowden signed Johnson to a three-year, $16.5 million-dollar contract in
the spring of 2006.
Thus far, Johnson has earned $11 million dollars of that contract while playing in just 38 games, earning $434,000 per game.
Nick Johnson is in the final year of that contract. Regardless of how well he plays, no matter if he stays off of the disabled list the entire season, the Nationals are not going to attempt to re-sign him.
So why play him every day and bench Willingham, a player who is under team control through the 2011 season?
The answer is simple: It's not going to happen.
Though Johnson is hitting just .158 this spring, his power numbers (2 homers, 4 RBI) and his on-base percentage (.360) look just fine. It makes sense, then, to trade him before he either gets hurt or begins to look lost at the plate.
And it makes no sense that Willingham will be one of the Nationals' two reserve outfielders either.
Willie Harris has signed a new contract with the team and has secured one of those roster spots. Austin Kearns, in part because of his $8 million dollar contract and in part due to his injury last season and overall poor performance since coming to Washington, isn't tradeable, which means he will likely be the other reserve outfielder.
But Mike Rizzo knows all this. He understands that Willingham needs to start and that the team doesn't really have a place for him as a reserve.
He's just trying to create additional value for Johnson.
If Rizzo were to say that Josh Willingham was a starter coming out of Spring Training, other general managers would know that Nick Johnson wasn't part of the team's plans and his value would be even lower than it is now.
How low? My guess is that the best the Nationals can hope to get for Nick is an above-average middle reliever (something they desperately need).
In his two full major league seasons, Josh Willingham has a .271 batting average, 30 doubles, 3 triples, 24 homers, 81 RBI and a .360 on-base percentage. Injuries limited him to just 102 games last year, but had he played a full season, he would batted .254 with 31 doubles, 8 triples, 23 homers, 77 RBI and a .364 RBI.
In other words, Willingham is consistently above-average.
Nick Johnson might start the season at first, but it won't be long before he's traded, freeing Adam Dunn to play first and returning Josh Willingham to left.
It's going to happen. It has to happen.
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