It wasn't long ago that Jurickson Profar looked like the future of the Texas Rangers.
But now, you suddenly have to wonder if he even has a future with the Rangers.
After a year riddled with bad injury news, the last thing the Rangers needed on the eve of spring training was more bad injury news. But they got some, as they announced Thursday that Profar will need to undergo surgery on his troublesome right shoulder next week.
According to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com, Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said the club won't have a timetable for the 21-year-old infielder's recovery until after his surgery. But every indication is that it's not going to be a swift recovery, as Profar's injury isn't exactly straightforward:
Indications are this will be no easier to fix than any other major shoulder injury. So after missing all of 2014, there's a chance Profar will miss all of 2015 too.
Maybe it didn't have to come to this. As recalled by Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, Profar first reported shoulder discomfort last spring, and the Rangers' first instinct was to take the ol' rest-and-rehab approach. When Profar suffered a setback in September, he chose to stay the course instead of opting for what doctors were recommending: surgery.
Obviously, that didn't work out.
If there's a bright side for the Rangers, it's that Profar wasn't a major part of their 2015 plans anyway. With Elvis Andrus at shortstop and Rougned Odor at second base, Profar looked destined for either a bench role or regular playing time in the minors.
Beyond 2015, however, things could get complicated.
Now, understand that Profar's career hasn't been completely derailed just yet. Two lost years is a heck of a hurdle for anybody to overcome, but at least he still has youth working for him.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports put things in perspective:
By the time Profar is recovered, he's still going to be of prospect age. And assuming all goes well, he should have the same skills that all the prospect hounds were in love with recently.
You only have to go back two years to find glowing scouting reports of Profar. Per Baseball-Reference.com, Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus all had him rated as the No. 1 prospect in baseball before the 2013 season. So did ESPN.com's Keith Law, who wrote:
A good defensive shortstop who posts OBPs around .400 and hits 15-20 homers a year is a player around whom you can build your roster, and who should help keep the Rangers in contention for the next decade.
Not surprisingly, the Rangers are taking the stance that Profar's surgery could give these talents back rather than take them away for good.
"He has not forgotten his ability or how to play the game," Daniels told Sullivan. "My expectation if the surgery goes well and the shoulder recovers, he'll be back and be the same player he was before the injury. As far as the arm strength, we'll see how it plays out."
If Profar does make a full recovery, there will be hope for him yet. He'll be back to being one of the game's top young talents, and there are plenty of places for a player like that.
But then again, maybe not. Though Profar could indeed make a full recovery, there is the possibility that he and the Rangers may not be so lucky.
Daniels was right to note that Profar's arm strength might not be the same, which would put his future as a shortstop on thin ice. And given what we know about shoulder surgeries, there's a chance the switch-hitting Profar's power might never be the same. Particularly from the left side, where his right shoulder is his lead shoulder.
One way or another, the Rangers are eventually going to find themselves in a sticky situation with Profar.
Though Profar doesn't even have 100 major league games under his belt, Grant pointed out that he'll be eligible for salary arbitration next winter. That means an automatic raise over the league minimum of $500,000. Unless, of course, the Rangers choose to non-tender him.
The only way the Rangers are avoiding that decision is if they trade Profar between now and then. Since that's most certainly not going to happen, they'll have to weigh Profar's limited track record—he owns a .645 OPS in 341 major league plate appearances—and his two lost years against whatever upside he has left and decide whether they want to keep him around.
That will be an easy decision if they see a fully recovered Profar and a window for him to play at either short or second. And given Andrus' recent struggles and Odor's inexperience, either window could conceivably open up in 2015.
But it will be a tougher decision if Andrus re-establishes himself in 2014, while Odor establishes himself at second. And regardless of what they do, it will be an even tougher decision if Profar is still looking like damaged goods.
For now, Daniels is singing the tune you'd expect him to be singing, telling Grant: “We will have to wait and let things play out when they play out. We’ve got to get him healthy, first. Then, he’ll compete for a job based on the context of our team at the time.”
That's GM-speak for "I have no idea where things are going to go from here," and it's not just Daniels who can say as much. The Rangers have watched their golden prospect fall to pieces, and they're eventually going to have to decide what they want to do with them once they're glued together.
Again, it bears repeating that Profar isn't necessarily doomed. He'll have missed some critical developmental time when all is said and done, but a full comeback is possible. If Josh Hamilton can miss three years and still develop into a star, maybe Profar can too.
But we'll see. While it's OK to be optimistic, it can't be ignored that Profar's career and place in the Rangers organization are going to be up in the air for a while.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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