Not even Thanksgiving can stop the Hot Stove fires from burning. The rumor mill is back to spinning at full speed after taking a break for some turkey and stuffing, fueling speculation on multiple fronts. Some of it has been team-specific, while some has been more widespread.
We'll look at some of that speculation and try to read between the lines, bringing you the most notable takeaways from the Hot Stove League's third week of action.
Let's get started.
David Price Won't Be Returning to Toronto
If you want to believe J.A. Happ's three-year, $36 million deal with Toronto doesn't signal the end of whatever slim chance existed for David Price to stick in Toronto, that's fine. When you consider the comments made by Blue Jays general manager Tony LaCava after signing Happ, it's easy to keep the dream alive.
But when you take a step back and look at Toronto's current rotation options, it's clear Toronto is preparing for LAP—Life After Price.
R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada, Happ and Marcus Stroman are all locks to be in the rotation, leaving one spot for Jesse Chavez and Drew Hutchison to battle it out for. That competition for the No. 5 spot in the rotation could expand to include youngsters Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez, who pitched in relief.
That's a lot of arms and, if the Jays continue to add pitchers to the mix, as LaCava says they will, it leaves little room for a pitcher the caliber of Price, who figures to sign a deal that pays him in excess of $25 million a season. Speaking of big paydays...
The "Big Money Bats" Will Have to Wait for Chris Davis
Baseball's most prolific home run hitter over the past four seasons, Chris Davis has been the center of the rumor mill's attention when it comes to the big money bats available via free agency, a group that includes Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton.
While Heyward may be in a different category than the rest of the field due to his youth and exceptional defense—many believe he'll command a deal in excess of $200 million—we've heard little more than a peep about the futures of Cespedes, Gordon and Upton.
Their markets won't begin to materialize until after Davis signs a new pact, one that MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko notes has elicited "projections of six- and seven-year deals ranging from $144 million to $182 million."
Even if Davis winds up on the low end of those projections, the other big bats may not find a GM willing to offer a Davis-like pact, because...
Teams Might Be Learning From Past Mistakes
We touched on this briefly this week in "Fact or Fiction," calling shenanigans on the notion that free-agent starter Wei-Yin Chen was indeed a pitcher worthy of an annual salary exceeding $20 million.
Sources told Fox Sports' Jon Morosi that Chen's agent, Scott Boras, will point to the four-year, $82.5 million extension Rick Porcello signed with Boston before the 2015 season as the reason for that notion. And Boras isn't necessarily wrong—Chen is the superior talent.
But just because one team made a mistake—Porcello was a disaster for the Red Sox last season—doesn't mean others are in a rush to follow suit. Consider these four free-agent pacts, all signed in the past few years:
- Robinson Cano signs with Seattle for 10 years, $240 million
- Shin-Soo Choo signs with Texas for seven years, $130 million
- Jacoby Ellsbury signs with New York for seven years, $153 million
- Josh Hamilton signs with Los Angeles for five years, $125 million
The Angels ultimately paid the Rangers to take Hamilton back, while Cano, Choo and Ellsbury have all failed to live up to expectations. Other teams are absolutely aware of that, and the mediocre return on investment those players have delivered will certainly factor into their approach this offseason.
While there's little doubt the best talent available on this year's free agent market is going to be paid well, it may not be for nearly as much as they—or anyone else—believes they're worth.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
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