What was once a sputtering offseason jump-started into high gear over the last week.
Two blockbuster free-agent signings are now in the books since Sunday. Jordan Zimmermann’s agreement with the Detroit Tigers whet the appetite and David Price’s monster deal with the Boston Red Sox put the rest of the market in a post-Thanksgiving contract coma.
Things have cooled in the following days, but only to a simmer since they are expected to boil again next week at the winter meetings in Nashville, Tennessee. Then we might have a ton to talk about.
For now, this past week provided enough fodder for reflection and projection.
Teams Will Never Stop Offering Mega-Contracts
The examples of nine-figure and $200-plus million contracts that have gone bad, or surely will, are abundant. Even incredibly recent ones like Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are looking destined to become massive burdens.
Owners and front offices know this. They see the numbers. They’ve done the research. They have the data. This is not news. It’s not surprising and nobody was caught off guard by how those deals are looking, or will eventually look.
Yet year after year we are seeing a team cave into better judgment to land the player they covet. This year it was the Red Sox handing Price $217 million over seven seasons, the largest contract ever given to a pitcher.
It is a contract that could turn ugly if Price does not exercise his opt-out clause after the third season, and we’ve already seen a comparable player—CC Sabathia—decline quickly after his huge payday. And Price is older at the time of his signing than Sabathia was at the time of his.
Just to chew on: Sabathia and Price had roughly same IP over first 7 full seasons. But Price is 3 years older than CC was at that point.
— Sweeny Murti (@YankeesWFAN) December 1, 2015
Despite all the history, near future and data that warns against such contracts that take players—pitchers and hitters alike—deep into their 30s, teams cannot help themselves to. They want to win now, and in the now, those deals get you the player in his prime. The ugly consequences come later.
Dave Dombrowski Is Not Ben Cherington
Consecutive last-place finishes, and three in four years, have a way of shifting—or completely demolishing—organizational philosophies.
The Red Sox are the latest proof of that. Signing Price to that kind of deal was pretty much unfathomable under former general manager Ben Cherington’s reign. He opted to make signings like Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez and Rick Porcello to complement the young talent he helped stockpile, which helped the Red Sox rate No. 2 in Baseball America’s farm system rankings entering last season. While those deals look awful, none went into the ninth figure.
Dombrowski, new president of baseball operations, works in a very different manner. When he ran the Detroit Tigers, he gave veterans like Fielder, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera gobs of money while gutting the farm system, which is why the team was dead last in the Baseball America rankings.
But Dombrowski was brought in to win now. And to do that, he needed Price. And to get him, he/ownership had to pay what he/ownership paid. Period.
Jordan Zimmermann Took Less Than His Market Value
The names of the pitchers who, in 2016, will make about the same annual salary that Zimmermann will make is a who’s who of current mediocrity, at best—Homer Bailey, Porcello, Matt Cain, James Shields, C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver.
Zimmermann will make slightly less than those pitchers next season, but we can attribute that to a back-loaded salary structure. However, we cannot attribute it to the fact that the Tigers’ new right-hander threatens to be head and shoulders better than every single one of those pitchers in 2016. At five years and $110 million, Zimmermann likely left years and cash on the table.
Sure, Zimmermann had a down 2015, by his standards. And he has had a Tommy John surgery, making him a likelier candidate for another in the future. But when he is proper, he is among the best starters in the game. And had he become a free agent last winter following a stellar 2014 season, he would have gotten $200 million.
That is why Tyler Kepner of The New York Times calls Zimmermann’s deal a “relative bargain” against the market. Had he waited until after Price’s deal was announced, Zimmermann could have easily—easily!—milked another $15 million out of the Tigers, or more had he added another year to the deal.
As it is, if Zimmermann gets back to close to the ace he was in 2014, the Tigers are going to have one of the biggest bargains of 2016 in their rotation.
Shelby Miller Won’t Pitch for Contender, But Cliff Lee Might
Shelby Miller, the Atlanta Braves’ top starting pitcher last season, is the highly coveted prize of the current trade winds, but it appears the Braves are content with keeping him unless they get a sky-high return. So, he might not be going anywhere to the disappointment of Hot Stove cooks and interested teams.
It's looking more and more like #Braves will hang onto Shelby Miller. They've received a ton of hits, but are not shopping him.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) December 3, 2015
Miller might be on the back burner now, but Cliff Lee is a new name on the surface. He missed all of last season with a partially torn flexor tendon and is 37 years old. Typically there is not a market for a guy like that, but Lee was one of the very best starters in the majors very recently when he put up a 2.87 ERA in 2013 and had a 2.96 FIP in 13 starts in 2014. As of now, reports say he is healthy.
Cliff Lee has been throwing and he's received medical clearance. If he finds the right fit, he will pitch in 2016.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 3, 2015
Because Lee will not command an ace’s salary, or even a back-end salary, there will be interest. Lee might have to settle for a small one-year deal, or even a minor league deal, but he will certainly get a shot to make a rotation going into spring training.
If he can give a team decent production over 22-26 starts, he could end up being a surprising steal.
The Twins Contending for Biggest Bargain of the Offseason
While a guy like Zimmermann is the front-runner to be the best value of free agency, the Minnesota Twins are vying to put their new slugger in the mix.
The team agreed to a four-year, $12 million contract with Korean power hitter Byung Ho Park this past week. This is after posting the winning $12.85 million bid for his negotiating rights.
"Because of our situation of having a scout over there,” Twins Vice President of Player Personnel Mike Radcliff told reporters at Park’s introductory press conference, “we have a lot of conviction that Byung Ho is going to be able to integrate into our organization and be a very productive player."
Park hit 105 home runs over the last two seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization and batted .343/.436/.714 with a 1.150 OPS last season. While the KBO certainly is not on the level of Major League Baseball, the success of Pittsburgh Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang in 2015 shows that KBO success can somewhat translate to the majors.
Assuming Park’s power and impressive exit velocities travel with him, the Twins are carrying one of the nicer team-friendly contracts of this offseason.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired first-hand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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